WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Aslkahuna]

Slight OT: Is there any radar imagery links from the Philippines?? I looked around the net and could not find any. This is to help add to the storm page I have put together for Megi; link is http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3541

unfortunately no... PAGASA has a few doppler radars working but i believe they are still in testing stages... and even if they have a "working" radar, i don't think they'd put it on their website lol... i'm also hoping for access to the radars, it's really really important and helpful especially for a country like RP...

The 14/0300Z JT position has the center at 139.6E Longitude which is a good 8-10 degrees outside of the range of any conceivable radar on Cantanduanes which is the easternmost island in the Philippines at the storm's latitude. It's also beyond the range of the WSR88D on Guam.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I really wish Pagasa would release those radars. I understand limited on funds but especially in an area with so much tropical activity (not just storms but monsoon season and just day to day tropical) It would be helpful. I've seen one of their research ships first hand though, it looked like it was falling apart. I don't think their funding is really top notch.

[dexterlabio]

I agree, Rob. Not only radars, I wish PAGASA will have a total modernization (I wish).

[Chacor]

I think I agree with JTWC on following recon, or at least considering it. No sense to discount it.

FWIW the last time PAGASA named a storm "Juan" based on its four-year lists, we had (Super) Typhoon Saomai.

[cycloneye]

This is JTWC Warning 05 Prognostic Reasoning.

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT EQUATORWARD AND TO THE EAST
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE IS PUTTING SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENT BY THE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND LACK OF RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TS 15W WILL FILL AND RELIEVE THE PRESSURE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS, TS 12W WILL BE SLOW
TO INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 24, A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
REORIENT THE STR TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED INTO THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THIS, COUPLED WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE AIR COLUMN, AND EASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT, WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). ADDITIONALLY, GFDN AND COAMPS-TC ARE BOTH
INDICATING RI BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO RE-BUILD WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH FORCING THE STORM TRACK TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE
VICINITY OF LUZON. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWING THE PERIOD OF RI, AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH GFDN, GFS, JGSM AND ECMWF
ALL IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT. UKMO IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FAST AND
NOGAPS IS NORTH AND SLOW.//
NNNN

[GCANE]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Megi putting on an impressive burst right now:

[supercane]

Latest KNES Dvorak remains at T3.0:
TXPN23 KNES 140306
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 14/0230Z
C. 12.3N
D. 139.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...NEW CONVECTIVE BURST CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE BUT LONGER
TERM DT TRENDS HAVE BEEN AROUND .7 BANDING FOR DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5. PT
IS 3.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/2140Z 12.0N 140.0E AMSU
13/2153Z 12.2N 139.9E SSMIS
...GALLINA
=

Latest JMA position similar:
409
TCNA20 RJTD 140300
CCAA 14030 47644 MEGI(1013) 17121 11399 142/4 2//// 92910=

Latest ASCAT from a few hours ago with peak winds around 35kt, but we all know its low bias:


Aslkahuna, I think Crownweather was asking for Filipino radar sites in anticipation of its landfall in a few days, not because he expected to see it on radar now.

Agree with everyone bemoaning lack of radar data on PAGASA's site, but it's clear it has major funding issues, so much so that PAGASA has depended on Japan (mostly), Australia, and Korea for funding of its radar project. Current Dopplers are in Baguio and Baler; and plans for Dopplers at People’s Park in the Sky at Tagaytay; Sta. Rita Hill, SBMA (Subic), Zambales; Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur; Tampakan, North Cotabato and upgrades to Doppler functionality at Guiuan, Virac and Aparri.

Sample article outlining PAGASA's problems: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100721-282272/Disturbance-24-PAGASA-specialists-lose-hope-leave-RP
PAGASA 2009 annual report: http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/annualreport/annualreport2009.pdf

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thats a really nice ascat pass their, this storm looks like it is already intensifying more, I'm currently uploading my 03Z update for westernpacificweather.com, should have it on here in a few. I want to let you guys know I be sure to shout this site out in every video. Good dscn's here.

[FireRat]

This is the real deal this week, might be a big problem for the northern Philippines by October 17-18...major typhoon IMO.

[RobWESTPACWX]

04Z Thoughts on this storm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz9vohrrxo4[/youtube]

[StormingB81]

GFS now has it going into PI...Looks like everyone agrees on the same path now. Hopefully for PI something crazy happends and it turns...

[RobWESTPACWX]

YA, if I was on the E coast of the PI anywhere between Leyte and N. Luzon I would start getting ready for this.

[StormingB81]

as i said that I saw that on Wunderground computer models have it coming back up north though....With how strong the storm should be we should all watch it and see what it does.

[dexterlabio]

GFS moving south of its previous forecast track. That's a scarier scenario.



Megi is already seen in PAGASA's available satpics. The authorities must already know there is a monster knocking at the door.

[Typhoon Hunter]

She's ramping up for sure!

URPA12 PGUA 140451
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/04:10:10Z
B. 12 deg 42 min N
139 deg 20 min E
C. 700 mb 3009 m
D. 62 kt
E. 298 deg 3 nm
F. 254 deg 49 kt
G. 146 deg 15 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 11 C / 3202 m
J. 19 C / 3179 m
K. 3 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF307 0330W MEGI OB 28
MAX FL WIND 64 KT E QUAD 02:28:30Z
EYEWALL BEGINNING TO FORM, APPROXIMATELY 70 PERCENT COVERAGE

[RobWESTPACWX]

986mb, wow!

[StormingB81]

I am guessing we will have a Typhoon by the 5pm advisory.

[euro6208]

I very rarely log on I just like to read about what everyone is saying but this one got my attention. I am from the Philippines and I feel like Megi might be a powerful landfall storm. I only hope this one was headed to Guam instead!

[StormingB81]

This could be ugly if some models are correct having it go through the Phillipines the nturning north would prolly brush Tawain then hit Okinawa. How often does that happend