ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[jconsor]

Agree that the area further east (14N 49W) near the vorticity max is the one to watch. Therefore I would treat the NHC models with skepticism, because they were initialized using the much weaker system to the SW at 12N 53W.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE FORMING NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

TCFA

[HURAKAN]

yesterday it was looking better

[HURAKAN]

175
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[SouthFloridawx]

The area to the east was definitely the one to watch. I thought this wave had more of a chance in developing that the two in front of it. It has a lot more spinning if you look at MIMIC.

Here's what the Predict team has to say about it today.

PREDICT pouch synopsis
Date (UTC): 2010/09/30 13:10
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/30 13:14
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/30 13:58 Pouch Name: PGI49L Official Name: 97L Initial Center Point: 13N 39W

Notes:

PGI49L/97L is the strongest of today's three pouches, all in the
central Atlantic. My guess is that 97L will absorb whatever is
left of PGI48L in the next day or two, and then absorb PGI51L,
but there's a good chance that PGI51L won't even be around then.

ECMWF is the outlier. ECMWF kills PGI49L/97L in about a day.

175
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Last night we saw 850 miles, so I would think that the NHC would agree that PGI49L is the one to watch for development.

I would think that pouches 48 and 51 are the ones to watch as they enter all energy streaming in from the E-Pac into the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SouthFloridawx]

[Vortex]

CMC is the only model that develops the further east wave. There is some twisting on the visible this morning just east of barbados and this is the spin-up the Gfs/Nogaps/Nam all show organizing into an organized low with varying intensities over the next few days...

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the most current surface map from the Predict Team... PGI51L, has the most significant amount of convection associated with it.

[SouthFloridawx]

[gatorcane]

Vortex I have noticed it's already gaining lattitude. I just do not see a Caribbean runner here. Models generally do not like this system's chances in the long-range. Ecmwf develops it and recurves well east of the Bahamas. I see no threat to Florida from this or the system that may develop in the western Caribbean over the next few days.

[Vortex]

Vortex I have noticed it's already gaining lattitude. I just do not see a Caribbean runner here. Models generally do not like this system's chances in the long-range. Ecmwf develops it and recurves well east of the Bahamas. I see no threat to Florida from this or the system that may develop in the western Caribbean over the next few days.

very possible...very different solutions given by various models as to what if anything may take place the next 3 days...removing any type of development what does look likely is the upper air pattern is going to become much more favorble for development over the central/eastern carribean sea so "if" we get something at the surface it could make for interesting times...

[bvigal]

TCFA

Good morning! I think this might be an error by NRL, the date on it is 29th, and the matching text from August 29, even though the file is dated today, below. When they finish it, will likely be farther west.

ALERT ATCF MIL 97X XXX 100829180000
2010082918
13.4 321.5
14.4 314.0
100
13.5 321.6
300000
1008300000
1
WTNT21 KNGU 300000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 38.5W TO 14.4N 46.0W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: AN ASCAT PASS AT 1229 ZULU SHOWS A SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTERED AT 13.8N 32.6W. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM AS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK WIND SHEAR.
THIS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 310000Z.//

[Vortex]

Watch the area around 14.2/58 today...mid level turning more apparent with early morning vis...

[HURAKAN]

Not very impressive this morning

[Aquawind]

Pouch pouting.. Poor Pouch has a owie today. Patience pouch watchers it will possibly be Paula near Puerto Rico..Hopefully it just poofs...

[FLpanhandle91]

I'm seeeing a pretty strong swirl with good convection associated with it around 16 N / 48 W.

[chrisjslucia]

Confused? I am. I thought Invest 97L was a combination of pouches 151 and 148 and 149 out to the East was something else. 151 has come and gone overnight (some rain here but not much). NHC is still talking of two waves to the East, so that must be 148 and 149, but 149 seems to have dissipated overnight or moved substantially to the North. Maybe. Is there still a 40% Invest out there, somewhere?

[sunnyday]

I've seen that there is somewhat of a consensus of the modelings having the storm going just east of S Fl. When should it be in that area? Thank you for answering.