ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[sunnyday]

The local newspaper insists that the heavy rain will be between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon. I just can't see how anything could get to S FL that quickly.

[sunnyday]

Why are there only a few pages here? I would have thought all those in the path would be writing in fast and furiously.

[ConvergenceZone]

Why are there only a few pages here? I would have thought all those in the path would be writing in fast and furiously.

It's not as if a formed storm is heading inland or anything. Personally I think
that when all is said and done, the situation will have ended up being
way over-hyped, but that's my own opinion. I've seen this so many times bwefore.

[Evil Jeremy]

The local newspaper insists that the heavy rain will be between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon. I just can't see how anything could get to S FL that quickly.

While the storm shouldn't be here until Wednesday at the earliest, the through interacting with the storm should still provide plenty of rain for us tomorrow.

[Steve H.]

Not too impressed with the current system. The cold front/trough may shear the system quite a bit. Let's see how it develops, but you're correct, not a lot a people chiming in. Maybe they're just too tired from tracking this.

[jlauderdal]

Why are there only a few pages here? I would have thought all those in the path would be writing in fast and furiously.

we are two busy putting out sandbags and getting gas for our generators

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

Where do you think well get a spin-up?

There is a lot more curvature this evening and surface observations are becoming ever more evident of a LLC forming just ESE of Cozumel. The other vort farther east seems to have weakened. Tonight should be the night...

[Vortex]

Watch the blow-up going on ssw of the isle of youth...this is where the GFS places the low around 2am

[HURRICANELONNY]

I tend to agree. I hate to say it . But the NWS seems to get it wrong in these situations. Too complex. The only thing for sure is there is a broad low pressure in the Carribean. The models keep popping lows because the pressure is so broad. They can't get a fix. If and only if something forms. Will the models have a handle on this. As for now. I'm like most. Wait and see. Like sunny said. Don't see the rain there forecasting tomorrow. When the trough pushes down by the end of the week. Then moisture will come. In what form who knows. Maybe it will snow.

[Vortex]

pressures in the lower keys are running 1005-1006 mb this evening...

[AdamFirst]

Why are there only a few pages here? I would have thought all those in the path would be writing in fast and furiously.

There was 65 pages of this on Talkin' Tropics.

[sunnyday]

I read a lot of the entries in the Talking Tropics, but I meant that now that this is an invest, I would have expected the trend to continue. It seems as if people would be more interested now that it has come this far. I wonder if people have gotten built up to expect storms so much that they are leary by now.

[KWT]

I think the main thing is this one is slowly getting better organised, still got a little bit to go but its clearly getting there bit by bit, focus does appear to be the western area afterall...

[cyclonic chronic]

im very leary almost complacent. i mean if this were a day or so out i wouldnt be, but models and people here said mathew was heading for s. fl., yeah that happened.. not. i think most people, including the majority of the public and most pro mets down here are in a wait and see basis. this just proves how far out predicting tropical systems are more than 3 days out. its a crap shoot, even if most models do agree, espically in the carribean late in the season.

[KWT]

pressures in the lower keys are running 1005-1006 mb this evening...

Thats very interesting in its own right, it shows just how low background pressures are at the moment in the NW Caribbean and into the SE Gulf.

[mf_dolphin]

8 pages since the invest was declared at 2PM Believe me, the traffic will pick up as this gets going.

[Aric Dunn]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS LOW DOES NOT YET
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[dmbthestone]

Still at 40%

[SeaBrz_FL]

I read a lot of the entries in the Talking Tropics, but I meant that now that this is an invest, I would have expected the trend to continue. It seems as if people would be more interested now that it has come this far. I wonder if people have gotten built up to expect storms so much that they are leary by now.

Some of that may be because Central/East Floridians are now more concerned with tornado activity from the front that moved in earlier today. Current tornado warning for Daytona/South Daytona until 8:30 PM and this warning has moved south over the past hour.

Back on topic - prime time local TV Mets reassured us tonight that we won't have the same "epic rain event" from the current NW Carib storm, but could be more in the coming week. I'm still glad that I bought my easily-storable sandbags.

[Vortex]

HWRF 18Z brings a 50kt storm right over SFL...





http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation