ATL: IGOR - Models

[Ivanhater]

Now this is suspicious

[Aric Dunn]

yeah I dont think its going to get picked up this run ...

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like today's Euro in terms of track. The weakness doesn't seem to be too strong, it's more strong out and broad, there's more ridging. Igor seems to be walking into the potential pattern change that was talked about. I mean it would be pretty much impossible for a storm so far north and so far east already to make it all the way to the CONUS though so it's still highly likely to recurve.

[SFLcane]

sharp recurve...

[SouthFLTropics]

Now this is suspicious

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_174m.gif

That looks to be a very flat trough across the NE...We haven't seen it like that in a while. It is definitely suspect because we are getting into the time of year where we would see troughs deeper and more amplified.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

there is goes.. recurve..

[SFLcane]

there is goes.. recurve..

At its current latitude its very unlikely for this to make the trek across. Especially this year with persistent trofiness in place.

[x-y-no]

Pretty close pass to Bermuda this run.

[hurricaneCW]

Once again, models are shifting further to the left. The biggest threat will appear to be Bermuda once again. We're also talking about a run over 10 days out so take what you want from it.

[SouthFLTropics]

Gee folks...Where have we seen this play out before? Oh, that's right, just a week or so ago with a guy named Earl.

I'm leaning towards a full recurve but I'm going to wait and see what the models do over the next few runs. If they continue to trend west...

SFT

[shah8]

More a Fiona story rather than Earl. It's about whether the continental high catches Igor. So it's going to be pretty binary, I think, rather than a general pushing west, west west on succeeding runs. It will either recurve or go way west.

[hurricaneCW]

The weakness is not that strong as depicted in this run but there's no way Igor has a shot of getting west of Bermuda unless it loses some latitude. Earl had a strong subtropical high that kept him generally westward all the way to 60-65W, Igor doesn't have that strong subtropical ridge so it will be north of the islands. However, Igor may not have to deal with a sharp trough that easily picked up and rapidly recurved Earl, but if Igor is too far north already, then he will be picked up rather easily even if the weakness is very weak.

[cpdaman]

anybody remember another sept storm ....IKE....and the path that storm took....HPC discussion mentions east coast AND gulf coast states so they think there is enough possibility that ike could go west young man

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

What in the world the BAMS doing?

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100910 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100910  0000   100910  1200   100911  0000   100911  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  27.3W   16.3N  29.2W   17.6N  31.6W   18.6N  34.4W
BAMD    15.2N  27.3W   16.1N  29.7W   16.9N  32.5W   17.7N  35.4W
BAMM    15.2N  27.3W   16.3N  29.4W   17.4N  32.2W   18.4N  35.3W
LBAR    15.2N  27.3W   16.0N  29.7W   16.9N  32.7W   17.5N  36.0W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          37KTS          46KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          37KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100912  0000   100913  0000   100914  0000   100915  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.9N  37.7W   21.9N  45.2W   23.1N  53.3W   22.1N  60.5W
BAMD    18.6N  38.1W   20.2N  43.1W   21.8N  47.7W   23.6N  51.9W
BAMM    19.3N  38.6W   20.6N  45.7W   20.8N  52.9W   18.9N  58.3W
LBAR    18.1N  39.3W   18.6N  46.2W   17.9N  51.4W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        55KTS          75KTS          85KTS          84KTS
DSHP        55KTS          75KTS          85KTS          84KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR =  27.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  14.2N LONM12 =  24.5W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =  10KT
LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 =  24.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Blown Away]

Pretty big W shift, the NHC likes to follow the TVCN model. Interested to see if the 11pm track shows more west.

[gatorcane]

Just checked things out tonight. Still looks very fishy with the exception of a possible Bermuda threat. That weakness in the western Atlantic just doesn't want to budge. Seems like it has been there for nearly a month now.

Keep thinking about October. I just have a feeling it will be active in the caribbean.....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just from a 11 am to 11pm glance ALL models have taken the massive "re-curve" out of their tracks.....These have trended ways west....and I'm not talking about the 364 Hr POS GFS forecast....

[hurricaneCW]

Yeah, the model runs above don't scream "total recurve" right now. They actually scream, watch out Bermuda. There's obviously going to be a subtle change with the pattern we've been in, the weakness will still be there, but it seems like it's going to restructure itself.

[GoneBabyGone]

I don't know much about anything other than what I can see from model to model...

If these models keep trending west with a wider recurve, could we end up with another Earl-type storm threatening NC/VA/DC/MA? Here in Boston, I can't stay I like that thought very much.

How reliable is that green triangle track (BAMD(?))? That scares me.

[terrapintransit]

Models definitely looking and favoring a more westward trend at this point...