ATL: EARL - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#141 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:27 pm

Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

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#142 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:31 pm

Before we get back on topic want to say I agree with link weather's interpretation of adamfirst's post. Can a moderator please remove the poster's comment on it hitting virginia beach? It's highly misleading.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#143 Postby Windtalker1 » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:38 pm

ronjon wrote:Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

Image


Let's say this does happen and Danielle does start moving more on a WNW track toward the Mid Atlantic/New England area.....wouldn't that mean that the high is building in behind her and wouldn't that push any other storms following behind on a more of a westerly track? Just wondering......Thanks
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#144 Postby vacanechaser » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:50 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

Image


Let's say this does happen and Danielle does start moving more on a WNW track toward the Mid Atlantic/New England area.....wouldn't that mean that the high is building in behind her and wouldn't that push any other storms following behind on a more of a westerly track? Just wondering......Thanks



most likely... if she misses the trough, or its weaker, earl to be should miss as well... way to early, but something interesting to watch...



Jesse V. Bass III
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Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#145 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:01 pm

ronjon wrote:Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

Image


Lately? Hes been blowing that horn since 1995...lol
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#146 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:58 pm

Lets see what the 00z GFS does with 96L.

48 hours.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#147 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:07 pm

I am sensing a more westward solution this run..at 48hrs.. Dees north jogging has slowed to a walk...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#148 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:14 pm

ROCK so far that is correct.

96 Hours.
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#149 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:15 pm

96 hours out, 96L is solidly below 20N and a little past 50W. In fact, it looks like it is chugging WSW from 84-96 hours.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#150 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:17 pm

Earl is catching up to Dee on this run and it seems plausible....what if any interaction will be interesting...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#151 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:19 pm

120 hours.

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#152 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:20 pm

Looks like its going to plow into the NE Caribbean on this run.
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#153 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Looks like its going to plow into the NE Caribbean on this run.


Yeah it does..getting close but Dee has left some weakness behind and is still kicking...really depends how fast she gets out of the way and let that massive high settle in on top of him...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#154 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:28 pm

Evil,,,,getting dam close to running over PR.....nasty if that verified for the islanders...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#155 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:31 pm

At 20N-60W. Another one behind, but that is for the Talking Tropics thread.

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#156 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:33 pm

He pulls up before he gets to you....but really close call on this run....the one behind is a different story though.....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#157 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:34 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#158 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:35 pm

[quote="Wx_Warrior"]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_150m.gifquote]

there is the swinging gate...wide open...if it doesnt fill Earl will take it...and maybe the one behind him....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#159 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:40 pm

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Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#160 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:40 pm

Bermuda gets a 1-2 punch.

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