WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[supercane]

00Z position from NRL file:

Tropical Cyclone 96W

07 Aug 2010 0000Z
Location: 19.2 125.1
Winds: 20 knots
Central Pressure: 1005 hPa

Positions overlayed on sat pic with shear analysis:

[supercane]

WWJP25 RJTD 070000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 992 HPA
AT 53N 162E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 162E TO 52N 166E 48N 169E.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 162E TO 49N 158E 46N 151E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 46N 151E TO 44N 146E 44N 140E 42N 135E 40N 130E
37N 125E 35N 119E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 42N 180E 35N 164E 40N 154E 40N 147E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 992 HPA AT 56N 158E ENE 20 KT.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 36N 166E SSW 10 KT.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 44N 173E EAST 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 18N 113E WEST 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 20N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 35N 150E WEST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Chacor]

By "we" I meant weather watchers, Storming, not in a literal sense of getting hit by 96W. I've only ever been affected by one TS (Vamei 2001).

JMA has 1004 low:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 20N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.

TCFA issued by JTWC.
WTPN21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 19.2N 125.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N
124.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LUZON, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES (062136Z SSMIS F-17 AND 062242Z SSMIS F-16)
DEPICTING A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH VERY WEAK, IL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPOMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
A DIFFLUENT POINT SOURCE ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM
HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
INCREASED, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.//

[Typhoon10]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.all.2010080612.tc_wpac_ll.single.gif

Looks like they have the storm going north

Yeah, but I cant see that, think it will go more west. But there is a broad LPA over the norther part of SCS, how will that effect it?

[supercane]

TCFA issued:

WTPN21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 19.2N 125.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N
124.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LUZON, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES (062136Z SSMIS F-17 AND 062242Z SSMIS F-16)
DEPICTING A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH VERY WEAK, IL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPOMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
A DIFFLUENT POINT SOURCE ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM
HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
INCREASED, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

[StormingB81]

Look like we may have fun here this weekend..better not mess with my weekend..lol

[dexterlabio]

Is it 96W seen to move towards Taiwan? There are also some models showing a system moving north towards Japan. I think there would be another circulation forming out of this thick convection over the region, as shown by these models, but I can't say which one will go here and there.

[StormingB81]

Thats why I am watching it here from Okinawa because I have alot of cleaning if it does. wonder if I should get a head start

[supercane]

Looks like slow and erratic movement typical of systems originating from the monsoon gyre.

[Typhoon10]

Would be interested to see what KWT, Chacor, TyphoonHunter, Hurakan (the experts) all make of it, which track they think it will take, to what degree it will strengthen?

[supercane]

ABPW10 PGTW 070230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/070230Z-070600ZAUG2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZAUG2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N
124.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LUZON, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES (062136Z SSMIS F-17 AND 062242Z SSMIS F-16)
DEPICTING A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH VERY WEAK, IL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPOMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
AND A DIFFLUENT POINT SOURCE ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
INCREASED, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 070200) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
GOOD.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm certainly no expert but model guidance seems to suggest it will move towards the north slowly. Conditions are pretty hostile to its north with high shear and dry air due to the TUTT / ULL. I guess environment will improve once TUTT / ULL moves out of the way.

[supercane]

This latest CIMSS low-level (700-850 mb) steering flow map shows relatively weak flow around the immediate vicinity of 96W. The map indicates a general W (as indicated by PAGASA) to WNW movement is possible, but given the weak steering currents, erratic movement is possible and is shown on JTWC's TCFA. As for strength, as JTWC mentions, the system is currently weak and without a well-defined center or banding, so development should be gradual.

[supercane]

From PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "ESTER"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Saturday, 07 August 2010
Tropical Depression Ester has slowed down and remains a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 160 km Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 19.3°N, 123.0°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 11 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Sunday morning:
110 km West of Basco, Batanes or
Monday morning:
340 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes



Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Cagayan
Apayao
Kalinga
Abra
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Northern Isabela
Batanes
Babuyan
Calayan Island None None

Tropical Depression "Ester" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of the country.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

[supercane]

Guess CIMSS map showing NE shear around 20 kt is accurate per latest vis posted by Hurakan indicating exposed center around 20.8N 124.8E, north of both NRL/JTWC and PAGASA estimates.

[HURAKAN]

exposed

[StormingB81]

how does the forcast look for the next couple of days?

[supercane]

New outlook, same text. Guess it's because they just issued the TCFA less than 4 hr ago.

291
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZAUG2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZAUG2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N
124.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.1E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF LUZON, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES (062136Z SSMIS F-17 AND 062242Z SSMIS F-16)
DEPICTING A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH VERY WEAK, IL-DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPOMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
AND A DIFFLUENT POINT SOURCE ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
INCREASED, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 070200) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

[supercane]

Dvorak T numbers pitiful. Note again N of JTWC position.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/0232 UTC 20.8N 124.8E T1.0/1.0 96W
06/2032 UTC 19.7N 124.9E T1.0/1.0 96W