ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC MON JUL 5 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 1800 100706 0600 100706 1800 100707 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.7N 86.8W 23.0N 88.6W 24.5N 90.4W 25.7N 92.2W
BAMD 21.7N 86.8W 22.9N 87.6W 24.0N 88.7W 25.1N 90.0W
BAMM 21.7N 86.8W 22.9N 88.1W 24.2N 89.6W 25.3N 91.2W
LBAR 21.7N 86.8W 23.1N 87.8W 24.4N 89.2W 26.0N 90.7W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 40KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 40KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800 100710 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.9N 94.1W 28.5N 97.5W 29.2N 100.6W 29.4N 104.4W
BAMD 26.0N 91.7W 27.4N 95.2W 28.2N 98.5W 28.2N 102.7W
BAMM 26.5N 93.1W 28.2N 96.7W 29.0N 99.9W 29.2N 103.6W
LBAR 27.6N 92.6W 30.4N 95.4W 32.3N 96.3W 33.0N 95.0W
SHIP 49KTS 59KTS 65KTS 62KTS
DSHP 49KTS 52KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.7N LONCUR = 86.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 20.5N LONM12 = 85.3W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 82.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HouTXmetro]

Assuming this develops this would be a major bust for the EURO. It would def test my unconditional love for this model. But then again all the other models could be wrong.

[jasons2k]

Assuming this develops this would be a major bust for the EURO. It would def test my unconditional love for this model. But then again all the other models could be wrong.

I wouldn't write off the Euro. It all depends on the timing. The Euro is farthest south because it is the slowest solution. Given that this system is taking its time, it may end-up being the correct solution. It's still way too early to have much confidence in either the faster/northern solution vs. the slower/southern solution IMO. Maybe tomorrow we'll have a better idea whether this will be an Upper TX Coast storm or more of a Brownsville/SPI threat.

[southerngale]

Models swinging north on a system that has yet to develop....

EURO showed development on this way before the "Good For Something."

Don't hate the EURO, hate the game......

Nobody hates the EURO. It's a great model. Most people just look at all (or most) of the models and try to find a consensus, instead of obsessing over one particular model. For most of us, it's not one or the other, or a competition.

[Ivanhater]

HPC going with Upper Texas coast/SW Louisiana region

[Wx_Warrior]

what would the bust be?

gfs need to realize that its hurricane season....thus far, gfs this season is like me going into the batter's box to face USA Olympic softball pitcher Jennie Finch....0-for!!!!

[TwisterFanatic]

EURO hasn't been any better.

[redfish1]

what time do the next set of models run?

[Ivanhater]

GFS



NAM take the energy into SE Louisiana

[KWT]

Thus far the idea of not developing this system is working out quite well...the GFS track into Se Texas maybe a touch too far east but I think the middle ground will be likely.

The ECM did orginally call for Central/Northern Mexico whilst GFS has been pretty keen on C/E Texas for a while now even though it doesn't really do much with it. So we shall have to wait and see.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS didn't develop the system yesterday....

Here is the para GFS 72h

[Big O]

I'm not sure why some are stating that the 12z European has a northeast MX/southern TX landfall. Raleighwx's model depiction shows the system making landfall around CRP. Would anyone correct me if I am wrong?

[KWT]

The GFS para is further south with this one then the operational...certainly seems like the Para perfers to hug closer to the ECM then the current operational run does.

I personally think we are looking at something close to the middle ground of the models, something close to the NHC compramise model.

[Peanut432]

So if you guys were guessing this far out where do you think landfall will be. Also, when the storm make landfall is it going to move west or north in the HPC illistration above??? Seems to me most models show it moving west across central and west Texas. More big rains for central and west Texas next week?

[Wx_Warrior]

whichever model, some are showing a heavy, heavy rain making event Thursday.

[redfish1]

So if you guys were guessing this far out where do you think landfall will be. Also, when the storm make landfall is it going to move west or north in the HPC illistration above??? Seems to me most models show it moving west across central and west Texas. More big rains for central and west Texas next week?

i was thinking of more of an upper Texas coast threat but i could be wrong!!

[RachelAnna]

HPC going with Upper Texas coast/SW Louisiana region

Looks like maybe the Houston area needs to prepare for more rain, even if there is not much in the way of substaintail development, wouldn't you say?

[KWT]

whichever model, some are showing a heavy, heavy rain making event Thursday.

Yep thats the key point with 96L, all models do show some decent rainfall on the eastern/Northern side of the system and it seems like this maybe a lopsided system if it does decide to develop.

Does the GFDL do anything with this system by the way?

[HURAKAN]

291
WHXX04 KWBC 052321
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.3 87.0 315./ 9.9
6 21.4 87.6 284./ 5.7
12 22.1 88.8 299./12.4
18 22.6 89.6 302./ 9.3
24 23.2 89.9 330./ 6.3
30 23.6 90.1 336./ 4.8
36 25.2 90.6 344./16.6
42 26.5 90.9 347./13.7
48 27.8 91.8 325./14.8
54 28.6 93.1 301./14.1
60 29.5 94.4 305./15.1
66 30.3 95.4 308./11.1
72 30.9 96.4 302./10.5
78 31.5 97.2 306./ 9.3
84 31.8 97.8 297./ 6.2
90 32.3 98.3 313./ 6.3
96 32.5 98.8 288./ 4.8
102 32.7 99.1 313./ 3.6
108 32.8 99.8 271./ 5.6
114 33.1 100.2 311./ 5.2
120 33.7 100.6 328./ 6.1
126 33.9 100.6 0./ 2.7

[HURAKAN]