ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Looks like It slowed its forward speed a little there may be some ridging between Danielle and that ULL that is dropping south to the NE.

[KWT]

Looks to me like it may just be a smidge right of the NHC forecast point but not really by a big amount, so it may just wobble back to match the NHC expected point later on.

[ConvergenceZone]

Does Bermuda have a radar site? Just asking because Danielle may get close enough to Bermuda to pick up some feeder bands on radar once it gets close enough

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Does Bermuda have a radar site? Just asking because Danielle may get close enough to Bermuda to pick up some feeder bands on radar once it gets close enough

http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp

[KWT]

Does Bermuda have a radar site? Just asking because Danielle may get close enough to Bermuda to pick up some feeder bands on radar once it gets close enough

I suspect given the current expected track we'll see more then jsut feeder bands, we'll probably be able to see the inner core at least of one side of the system.

Really a direct hit on Bermuda is pure luck, its a very hard call for anyone to make no matter how good they are more then 24hrs out, but the threat is there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Does Bermuda have a radar site? Just asking because Danielle may get close enough to Bermuda to pick up some feeder bands on radar once it gets close enough

http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp

Thanks for the radar link. I'll bookmark that just in case....

[ConvergenceZone]

Here's the Bermuda Discussion regarding Danielle taken from
http://www.weather.bm/ForecastDiscussion.asp

"LONG TERM FORECAST
All models are in agreement with the movement of Danielle pretty
well through Saturday, then diverge significantly on Sunday. GFS
is the most threatening, bringing the storm just over 100nm to our
east Sunday afternoon. UKMO is very similar on timing, but has the
storm over 200nm away and slightly weaker as well. CMC is more in
line with the UKMO, and ECMWF is the outlier, moving the system faster,
making it’s CPA early Sunday, and also making the storm much more
intense with a central pressure 20mb deeper than other models. As
a result, while confidence in the trend to increasing northeast winds
and building southeast swells with the storm passing to our east
on Sunday is high, forecasting just how strong the winds/seas will
get Sunday has a much lower confidence at this time. Have forecast
for a middle ground between GFS and UKMO for Sunday, with strong
to gale force winds and gale force gusts, with seas rising to high
with southeast to easterly swells, particularly to the south and
east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required
for Sunday."

[KWT]

Yeah I think a TS warning is quite likely with this one providing current trends continue with this one in terms of overall motion.

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like she's heading N/NNW right now, making it even less likely to impact Bermuda in any way, it's still east of 55W. This could be important regarding the track of Earl if it lifts out much earlier than expected.

[supercane]

Danielle may have finally closed off an eyewall again.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It looks like she's heading N/NNW right now, making it even less likely to impact Bermuda in any way, it's still east of 55W. This could be important regarding the track of Earl if it lifts out much earlier than expected.

Looks more NW or NNW. Definitely not North.

[KWT]

Looks like Danielle can't quite decide whether to have a tight inner eyewall there or a larger eye supercane.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say a Hurricane Watch would be needed first for Bermuda, probably sometime Friday.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 220N, 535W, 80, 978, HU

Up to 80kts.

[CrazyC83]

Seems reasonable; with current trends it may be back at Cat 2 by advisory time.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cpdaman]

OK so danielle is goin pretty much north right now ...WHY? although it looks like she slowed down alot....(6-10mph) last couple hours is my guess

sorry for the caps...but it's kinda important.....is it the ULL to her SW...(is there one) that she has to go around.(thus move north )...and then she will resume her NW or even WNW movement? b/c its not like she is accelerating north and escaping so...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track Updated

AL, 06, 2010082600, , BEST, 0, 220N, 536W, 85, 975, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

They updated upwards from 80kts to 85kts cat 2 at 00z.

[Blown Away]

Ok let's assume Danielle takes the NW track towards the CONUS, what happens to Earl? If that were to happen Earl would be almost due south with Danielle chugging slowly towards the CONUS??? Does Earl recurve east of Danielle, continue moving towards Danielle, or would that force Earl more S and W? I think the NE recurve solution for Danielle is more likely IMO.

[supercane]

Perhaps an example of an upper level low producing "good" shear by providing a poleward outflow channel.