ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

1st visible

[dexterlabio]

This could be quite remarkable cane than Igor in the far Atlantic IMO. Few systems in the past years made landfall as a major hurricane, and this one has rapidly grown into a major and could be still strengthening...and I've heard that intensifying storms tend to have more impact by landfall compared to weakening major canes.

For those who will be affected by Karl, please be safe.

[BobHarlem]

is anyone else having problems getting to the radar web site? maybe too much traffic

Yes its not working for me either cyclonic..it dont take
much to knock mexican radar out.

Radar is Mirrored at: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?89

[Blown Away]

Karl looks a little south of the NHC points and is closing in on the coast. Wow, this is not going to be good!

[alan1961]

[Macrocane]

No surprise to see a cat 3 this morning, what surprises me is that it's the 5th! I can't believe how active these last 3 weeks have beeen. I'm watching the mexican news and in Veracruz it's raining hard, the winds are getting stronger and high waves are coming ashore.

[KWT]

Amazing looking hurakan on the Vis imagery, this has grown into a total classic of a cane...the signs were there though when it came offshore with a nearly fully developed inner core, never a good sign!

If Karl is a touch south of the forecast points then Veracruz is gonna be smashed today...

[wxman57]

Not much happening in Veracruz - yet. Winds SW (210 deg) at 10-15 kts at 7:42am CDT.

MMVR| |171242|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|210|010|000|29.56|999|OVC|Light Rain
MMVR| |171225|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|210|015|000|29.57|999|OVC|Rain
MMVR| |171145|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|200|010|000|29.60|7|OVC|Light Rain
MMVR| |171049|73.0F|71.0F|94.1%|200|010|000|29.61|999|OVC|Light Rain
MMVR| |171000|73.0F|71.0F|94.1%|220|020|000|29.65|999|OVC|Light Rain

[AussieMark]

Karl has a very small radius of Hurricane force winds so be a while before anyone feels the worst of him I suppose.

[brunota2003]

Winds just jumped from 17 knots at 7 am CDT to 27 knots at 8 am CDT in Veracurz Harbor.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=VERV4

[KWT]

I think wxman57 thats going to look very different in 3hrs or so!

[cyclonic chronic]

very small extent of hurricane force winds (25 mi.), but t.s. force winds should be impacting the coast/veracruz now. once it comes ashore the winds in veracruz will pick up very quickly. expected storm surge is 12-15 feet. this is so remenicent of charley its scary, hopefuly their prepared. yet i imagine alot of people went to bed expecting a hurricane and woke up to a monster on their doorstep. its unfortunate that its probably too late for most people to evacuate. to most people a 15 foot storm surge is just a number, but when u think about it thats like 3 people stacked on top of eachother. more than enough to kill anyone caught in it. wow, this could be a real disaster, one where we wont hear about all of it for weeks.

[cycloneye]

Vortex Message. 98kts NW Quad.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 13:09Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2010
Storm Name: Karl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:55:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 95°41'W (19.5333N 95.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (337 km) to the WNW (301°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,752m (9,029ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SE (144°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 97kts (From the SW at ~ 111.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 959mb (28.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:58:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 98kts (~ 112.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:58:30Z

[alan1961]

No surprise to see a cat 3 this morning, what surprises me is that it's the 5th! I can't believe how active these last 3 weeks have beeen. I'm watching the mexican news and in Veracruz it's raining hard, the winds are getting stronger and high waves are coming ashore.

Two Tv stations with news coverage.

http://www.livetvcenter.com/grupo_fm_tv_630.asp
http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/8431.htm

[AussieMark]

according to this recon does that mean Karl is a category 2 not a 3?

[brunota2003]

I would say 100 knots looks good. SMFR has been picking up readings (not flagged) of 98 to 100 knots, but the flight level winds are a little on the low side (I believe 98 is the highest flight level wind found thus far). Hopefully they can get at least one, maybe even two, more passes in before landfall.

[KWT]

Probably NE quadrant has 100kts winds given the 99kts estimated by SFMR so its probably still a major hurricane though cat-2 conditions will be felt rather then 2 at landfall for where its eyewall hits on the western side...

[wxman57]

Recon would indicate 95-100 kts for max winds. No cat 4 at landfall, it appears. Veracruz winds SW 15 gusting 25 kts now.

MMVR| |171331|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|230|015|025|29.57|999|OVC|Rain
MMVR|SP|171312|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|200|018|000|29.58|999|OVC|Heavy Rain

[HURAKAN]

Appears to be heading almost directly towards Veracruz, not good

[Blown Away]

According to Hurricanecity, Karl may be the strongest recorded hurricane ever to hit Veracruz.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/veracruz.htm