ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

The center appears to be heading just north of west around 20N 63.5W.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[supercane]

For those who don't know, recon is flying into ex-Colin now. See the recon thread to follow along.

[KWT]

Don't look like recon is finding any hint of a circulation, early days of course and there could be something small, but any LLC will be a good deal west of where recon is heading into.

[HURAKAN]

RECON found in the last pass 196 winds, or SSW

[KWT]

There probably will be numerous little bends and kinks where the system tries develop a new LLC.

196 is ok but some way to go yet...

[wxman57]

Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.

[KWT]

Yeah, thats hardly surprising they are finding a circulation aloft where it is , if I remember correctly Pre Bonnie had quite a potent MLC aloft for some time.

I still think it has a fair shot at redevelopment down the line, would be a superb call if they get it...

[supercane]

Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.

So you're considering the wind shift around 19.0N 61.9W they found at 750 mb as a mid-level circulation? Definitely nothing at the surface thus far.

[jconsor]

Keep in mind that recon is flying at around 975 mb. So whatever circulation it is finding is very close to the surface.

Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.

[HURAKAN]

163400 1927N 06039W 9770 00322 0137 +221 +186 125036 037 039 001 00
163430 1928N 06038W 9770 00322 0139 +211 +184 125036 037 044 007 00

TS winds

[TheBurn]

[TheBurn]

[CrazyC83]

Impressive winds - SFMR as high as 53 kt. I don't expect an LLC to be found, but if one is, it would be a solid tropical storm of 45-50 kt winds.

[artist]

Impressive winds - SFMR as high as 53 kt. I don't expect an LLC to be found, but if one is, it would be a solid tropical storm of 45-50 kt winds.

there were ssw winds found. Now wxman57 felt they were aloft but jconsor stated they were flying close to the surface.

Professional-Met
wxman57 wrote:
Recon is finding a circulation aloft, but actual surface obs through the area that they're investigating indicate SE winds at 20 to 25 kts. So there appears to be nothing at the surface as far as a circulation.

Professional-Met
jconsor wrote:
Keep in mind that recon is flying at around 975 mb. So whatever circulation it is finding is very close to the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

Its very close...

[AdamFirst]

How much longer does it have in the shear? 24-48 hours?

[Gustywind]

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Looks like some sort of low pressure is NE of PR, see how the flow is turning rather then moving west.

[Gustywind]

Nice closeup...