ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[floridastorm88]

i hope its sheared we the need moisture not a hurricane

[blp]

It looks to be a close call. Looking at the loop below, it seams to me like the cut low over the US is not digging south as much and is heading east and the real strong shear seams to be over the central gulf and not progressing as much south and seams to be flattening out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

Any thoughts on whether the cone might shift at 11pm. I have been trying to catch up. Seems like quite a hard right turn starting tomorrow at 1pm per the last cone.

I highly doubt the turn itself will be that sharp. Anyways, I think the cone will be moved up north. Perhaps not solely on the storm's own merits, but if more of SFL can be moved into the cone, it could raise awareness about a possible threat being on its way. I think the cone's center will skim Cuba's north coast.

I think the NHC is right with the hard right turn look at the water vapor. notice the shortwave presing SE towards Florida which would force Paula ENE along the Cuban coatline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[psyclone]

paula is such a little squirt she would just about have to make landfall on the yucatan to bring serious weather to the coast there and that may not happen. i continue to think florida is completely off the hook on this one as shear would rip paula to shreds should she try to come further north. beyond that, the storm is so small even a track along the north coast of cuba would be a non event for even the keys in all likelihood. as always, the new advisory will be of interest.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

The models are usually so good at predicting development that you tend to take them as gospel sometimes and forget to just look at was is actually happening. This storm has been fascinating to watch.

[boca]

I think the cone will not shift north but stay the same in the 11pm advisory.I think this will be a non event also for Florida like other posters have stated earlier.

[ericinmia]

Nice little burst...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[cycloneye]

Boca,you were right.

[Evil Jeremy]

7 in a row and counting:

GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
LESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.

[abajan]

Was just looking at sailwx.com to see what ships might be in the area - freakin' passenger ship, Radiance of the Seas, right out there in it.

I'm all for keeping to the cruise schedule, but dude.

Although it’s true we shouldn’t tempt fate, I’m pretty sure the Radiance of the Seas will handle Paula quite well because it’s not exactly a small boat! (Of course, there will be some rockin’ an’ rollin’ because stabilizers can only do so much but passengers should look at it as an adventure. )

[SouthDadeFish]

Why can't recon fly in at 8 am and 8 pm instead of 2 am and 2 pm. Would make it nicer and easier to be awake for

[blp]

Tomorrow will most certainly be an interesting day. I look forward to seeing how it plays out.

From the NHC discussion

THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
CYCLONE WILL GET.

[gatorcane]

Extremely cold cloud tops are firing over the center. Could be intensifying again.

[Florida1118]

track seems to be shifting south again...

[MGC]

The short wave that will redirect Paula is entering the north GOM and making considerable progress to the SE. Where the two collide is the million dollar question. Looks that Paula has peaked and will slowly start to weaken until the stronger shear arrives tomorrow. I think the NHC has a good handle on Paula and the hurricane will track very close to their forecast track. I've been impressed on the NHC forecast tracks this season.....MGC

[baygirl_1]

According to this: http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/cruiseships.phtml Radiance of the Seas is not the only cruise ship in the vicinity of Paula. Looks like a couple other cruise ships were caught in the path of Paula. But, I checked the info sailwx.com provides about Radiance (click on the name) and it's apparently reporting just 2 ft. waves. The largest waves reported by Radiance have been 2.5 feet. The winds are about 44 knots, though, so they've most likely got the upper decks closed down and passengers are having to stay below.

[Macrocane]

Extremely cold cloud tops are firing over the center. Could be intensifying again.

I agree, it is recovering from the "erosion" we were talking about, what I hate about small cyclones is that looks can be very deceiving and a small change in appearence may look like an important change in organization.

[CrazyC83]

Could Paula fool us all again overnight?

[Sanibel]

Just a wobble. Still on NHC trop points.

[maxx9512]

Looking at the way the clouds are moving into SWFla. on this view it would look like the storm would follow.
I guess the front coming that is just in upper left is going to turn it before that. Is the timing going to be critical or is it something that is just not going to happen and it will turn first? I guess following cloud movement is not really a good indicator. Here is the satt. I am looking at.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

I was just about to post the same thing. The rain movement in the SE Gulf is SW to NE and not pushing past a front-like line. This is probably the edge of the front. The line will push SE and move eastward as it progresses.


The north side of the CDO is flattening.