ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[abajan]

What sort of conditions are those two islands (Isla de San Andres and Isla de Providencia) near the center of circulation reporting? When I zoomed in using Google Earth, both of them were seen to have airports. So, they must surely have some sort of weather recording instruments.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

What sort of conditions are those two islands (Isla de San Andres and Isla de Providencia) near the center of circulation reporting? When I zoomed in using Google Earth, both of them were seen to have airports. So, they must surely have some sort of weather recording instruments.

North winds and a pressure of 1009 mb according to wunderground

[HURAKAN]

I see higher than 30% at 8 pm!

[expat2carib]

I see higher than 30% at 8 pm!

My bet is on 50%

[hurricaneCW]

I say no higher than 50% for 8pm. The warming cloud tops are give away that this is not a rapidly organizing system although the structure looks pretty good and is getting better. Perhaps the DMAX will be able to get it up to code red by tomorrow and maybe a TD by Monday.

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 091415.GIF



Latest

[Vortex]

2145Z deeper convection firing right over center....



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Florida1118]

I say no higher than 50% for 8pm. The warming cloud tops are give away that this is not a rapidly organizing system although the structure looks pretty good and is getting better. Perhaps the DMAX will be able to get it up to code red by tomorrow and maybe a TD by Monday.

And the close proximity to land...but again by 48hrs. , we will be at Monday 8pm...I say 60%

[Vortex]

great look on this looped image of the convection bursting right over the center...



http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 11&lon=-82

[KWT]

I have very litle doubt this goes Code Red very soon, no reason why it shouldn't, clearly got a circulation and the banding is very obvious already on the western side. Convection is a little slim in places but its a developing depression so thats not really the be all and end all. If this isn't 70-80% I'd be rather surprised.

[jlauderdal]

I say no higher than 50% for 8pm. The warming cloud tops are give away that this is not a rapidly organizing system although the structure looks pretty good and is getting better. Perhaps the DMAX will be able to get it up to code red by tomorrow and maybe a TD by Monday.

60%

[Florida1118]

Just another 30min or so...

[SouthDadeFish]

Very nice burst going on right over the center. I'm quite surprised how nice this is starting to look. If this burst continues to expand look for code red at 8pm.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2

[jlauderdal]

Just another 30min or so...

the ballots have been cast and the accounting firm of stewart, avila and pasch are verifying the results...this could be the last hurrah for 2010 folks so enjoy the suspense

[cycloneye]

At 2245z

[Vortex]

Impressive exlposion of convection over the center....



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[SouthDadeFish]

The conservative NHC probably will only go 50% at 8pm, and bump it to red at 2 am I'm guessing.

[Florida1118]

The conservative NHC probably will only go 50% at 8pm, and bump it to red at 2 am I'm guessing.

Its not the NHC thats conservative, its whoever is writing the TWO. Certain forecasters do different things.

[GCANE]

The burst is inside the ADT bulls-eye topping about 55K ft.

Watching rain-rate. If it goes off scale, it'll be a hot-tower.

Given the anti-cyclone is getting close and raising the tropopause, I am thinking this could happen.

If so, it could ramp up quickly in 12 to 18 hrs.

All depends on rain-rate.

Cell south of Jamaica will also help to anchor the anti-cyclone to closer to the convection due to rapid latent heating.