WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Nearly got a fully closed off eyewall there Hurakan, a good sign for strengthening in the next 24hrs at least...

[P.K.]

JMA up to T5.0 at 12Z.

[Infdidoll]

Radar shows we've got some nasty-looking storms from outer bands that should be in Okinawa soon. I hope Taiwan is well-prepared. Typhoon Morakot, which hit Taiwan last year as a Cat 1 was the deadliest typhoon for Taiwan in recorded history. That typhoon killed well over 500 people.

[KWT]

Thanks PK, that supports a strengthening Typhoon thats for sure, I've got few doubts this will be a strong system down the line.

[Chacor]

Can't wait for tomorrow's recon.

[dexterlabio]

I wonder if this could get stronger than the current forecasts tell. JTWC reasons out strong vertical wind shear once it nears Taiwan, but for the past few years, I've seen many typhoons that overcame high wind shear but still managed to strengthen more.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Dexter JT's reasoning looks pretty solid, but I do agree with you on typhoons in the past overcoming the shear, I think this one will to a point, a max around 90-100kts seems about right though, with 15-20kts of shear building in from china.

Very interesting system on that note, the good news is it looks like the wind field does not go out to far from the center.

[KWT]

Can't wait for tomorrow's recon.

Yeah its going to be good if this one can really strengthen and we get decent recon in there, Chacor do you think its worth while opening a recon thread for this system?

[RobWESTPACWX]

New Warning is out.. JT must have seen what we saw. Max fcst is up to 100G125KT prior to landfall. On that note this is going to be devastating to taiwan and I am really worried about mayakajima. Looks like they are going to see some intense winds with a CPA around 60nm. Going to be interesting.

[supercane]

Catch-up advisories:

WTPQ50 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 22.7N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 23.2N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 190600UTC 24.3N 120.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 200600UTC 24.5N 115.2E 210NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

SUBJ: TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 011
WTPN31 PGTW 170900
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.2N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 23.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.8N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.9N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.5N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 26.1N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 127.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION WITH AN IRREGULAR EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. BASED ON THE THIS LATEST IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR
FIXES FROM OKINAWA (220 NM NORTH), THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY
TURNED NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE DEVELOPING
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY
12W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN NEAR TAU 48. AFTER RE-EMERGING
OVER THE THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK. THE
17/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FILLS AND
KICKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES
INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID- TO UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL
OUTFLOW WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 90
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN DUE
TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TAIWAN AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN TS STRENGTH UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER CHINA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1011 FANAPI (1011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 23.1N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 170NM
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 23.6N 124.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 191200UTC 24.0N 119.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 201200UTC 24.4N 115.0E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =



WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.8N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.9N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 127.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND NOW
HAS AN 11 NM EYE. A 170944Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A NEAR COMPLETE
EYEWALL WITH A SMALL GAP IN THE NORTH QUADRANT, AND EXCELLENT
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS INDICATE THAT CONVERGENT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS LIKELY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES HAVE INCREASED 5-10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. IN FACT,
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE 500MB ANALYSES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA INTO
WESTERN JAPAN (24-HOUR HEIGHT RISES OF 20-30 METERS) BEHIND THE
MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH (WHICH HAD BRIEFLY INTERACTED WITH
THE SYSTEM CAUSING A SHORT-TERM NORTHEASTWARD TRACK). THIS
TROUGH IS FILLING AND KICKING OUT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
JAPAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT NAZE (28N 129E) HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY
STRENGTHENED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS. BASED ON THIS
ANALYSIS AND THE TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT, TY 12W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AT 90-100 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
RETAINS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
WEAKENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 BUT PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AFTER
TAU 36 AND SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER
THE THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A 50-60 KNOT SYSTEM. FANAPI WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER CHINA
BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96.//
NNNN




TPPN10 PGTW 171216 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI)
B. 17/1132Z
C. 23.1N
D. 127.7E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. COR LINE D LONGITUDE. OW
EYE TO MG SURROUNDING CNVCTN YIELDS 4.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0758Z 22.8N 128.2E SSMI
17/0836Z 22.9N 128.2E SSMS
17/0944Z 23.0N 128.1E SSMS
ROSS



960
TCNA21 RJTD 171200
CCAA 17120 47644 FANAPI(1011) 14231 11277 12234 250// 93205=

[RobWESTPACWX]

Okinawa was put in TCOR 3 at 2000I, talked to some of the guys in charge of this, really just precautionary but still, it is exactly that. Be cautious. Max FCST at Kadena is still around 30kts but could very well change due to the tight wind field of this system..

Anyhow thats all for me tonight, I'm knocking off for the evening. I want to say one more time I am ecstatic about this site and am looking forward to spending more time here, seems like there is some really intelligent people in these parts so looking forward to the coming days.

Rob

[Chacor]

Eye has been shrinking, convection also waning slightly. Probably diurnal fluctuations.

[dexterlabio]

diurnal fluctuations? what does that indicate?

[Infdidoll]

Okinawa was put in TCOR 3 at 2000I, talked to some of the guys in charge of this, really just precautionary but still, it is exactly that. Be cautious. Max FCST at Kadena is still around 30kts but could very well change due to the tight wind field of this system..

Anyhow thats all for me tonight, I'm knocking off for the evening. I want to say one more time I am ecstatic about this site and am looking forward to spending more time here, seems like there is some really intelligent people in these parts so looking forward to the coming days.

Rob

Glad they did that. Sometimes I think they're afraid of causing a panic with folks thinking we're on a collision course with disaster every time they raise the TCOR level. However, it does suck to be woken up at 3 a.m. by your stuff flying across the yard. Better to be safe than sorry...The winds are really kicking up here so after a lot of contemplating on whether I wanted to go through the trouble so late at night, I went and moved our light patio furniture inside.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 171516

A. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI)

B. 17/1432Z

C. 23.1N

D. 127.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW WITH LG SURROUNDING
CNVCTN YIELDS 5.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
17/0944Z 23.0N 128.1E SSMS
17/1133Z 23.0N 127.8E SSMS


ROSS

[HURAKAN]

Once in a while I come to show some love to Fanapi!!

[HURAKAN]

even better pic!

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.8N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.9N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 127.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
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