ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

I am going to say it will remain at 60 %.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Lets do a very quick sample on the % for the 2 PM TWO.

I say remains at 60%.

It has made some progression on satellite imagery since 8:00AM. I'm going with 70% and the trademark, "could become a tropical depression at any time" sentence.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Lookin' good.

One question though.

You CAN smack me for this.

Is a HIGH a Ridge or a Trough?

(I forgot my Hurricane Alex R/T lesson)

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Low level clouds starting to entrain towards center.

Exactly, a sign that it is ready to wind up and organize into a tropical cyclone. The only "down" factor towards development is that there may be some dry air intrusion as it basically breathes in.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty evident we are getting close to TD ...

[stormchazer]

Lookin' good.

One question though.

You CAN smack me for this.

Is a HIGH a Ridge or a Trough?

(I forgot my Hurricane Alex R/T lesson)

Ridge

[KWT]

Probably need one more Dmax burst, but yeah 70, maybe even 80% sounds about right to me.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Lookin' good.

One question though.

You CAN smack me for this.

Is a HIGH a Ridge or a Trough?

(I forgot my Hurricane Alex R/T lesson)

Ridge

Thanks.

[sunnyday]

Will stay at 60.

[JTD]

Disclaimer: This post is not official and should not be treated as official information.

Just FYi, I am hearing elsewhere on the internet that on a HPC/NHC conference call just held, they are giving it a greater than 50% chance of initiating advisories this afternoon/evening if current trends continue.

If someone could verify that, I'd appreciate it.

[stormchazer]

I'd say 60 too. Tops have warmed a bit though structure continues to improve.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Disclaimer: This post is not official and should not be treated as official information.

Just FYi, I am hearing elsewhere on the internet that on a HPC/NHC conference call just held, they are giving it a greater than 50% chance of initiating advisories this afternoon/evening if current trends continue.

If someone could verify that, I'd appreciate it.

Do you have the link suggesting that?

[Brent]

Disclaimer: This post is not official and should not be treated as official information.

Just FYi, I am hearing elsewhere on the internet that on a HPC/NHC conference call just held, they are giving it a greater than 50% chance of initiating advisories this afternoon/evening if current trends continue.

If someone could verify that, I'd appreciate it.

Do you have the link suggesting that?

It was in a post on Eastern. I saw it too. Not sure I believe it or not, but we'll find out soon.

I'm thinking tomorrow morning is more likely than later today but who knows.

[Cryomaniac]

Disclaimer: This post is not official and should not be treated as official information.

Just FYi, I am hearing elsewhere on the internet that on a HPC/NHC conference call just held, they are giving it a greater than 50% chance of initiating advisories this afternoon/evening if current trends continue.

If someone could verify that, I'd appreciate it.

This reply is not official information and should not be used for any purpose

I certainly can't verify it, but it wouldn't be too shocking if it happened.

It certainly looks to be setting up to be a TD soon, maybe even tonight or early tomorrow. I personally wouldn't rules out Colin by 00z Tuesday.

[Recurve]

"Advisories" ??? No NHC advisories without a tropical cyclone. A TC formation alert? doesn't seem at all likely.

"Hearing...on the internet..." = most likely spam. No disrespect, just...only use official sources for official information.

[Ivanhater]

80 PERCENT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[Aric Dunn]

Disclaimer: This post is not official and should not be treated as official information.

Just FYi, I am hearing elsewhere on the internet that on a HPC/NHC conference call just held, they are giving it a greater than 50% chance of initiating advisories this afternoon/evening if current trends continue.

If someone could verify that, I'd appreciate it.

well not able verify.. but like I said a few minutes ago it is very close to TD ... i figured they would wait till morning but its has a closed wind field but not sure if its "well defined" but since the trend is continuing to improve it would not be unreasonable to upgrade at 5pm since the environment is very favorable..

[SFLcane]

up to 80 percent...

[Hurricane Andrew]

@Recurve, Initiating Avisories means they will make it a TC. Also, Eastern WX forums is a very trusted forum. So if its posted there, AND somewhere else, its probably true. I think.

You coulkd be right, i don't know.