ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[Vortmax1]

Wow! I popped up the satellite and got my surprise of the morning. Where is it??
Yes KWT...development appears to be a ways off.

[Nimbus]

Where is it??

Maybe near 32 W 8.5N? Watch the loop and you can easily spot the wave axis.

[RL3AO]

There is quite a bit of sinking air over the tropical Atlantic right now. It will be a system that pulses then weakens but every time it pulses it gets a little closer to TD status.

[Blown Away]

Convection consolidating and I see a nice rotation developing. Going to be a slow go but I think we will eventually see Colin from this area.

[Vortmax1]

It's going to need to really start pulsing then to make Cat 3 in 120 hours like the LGEM forecasts!


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Florida1118]

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Vortmax1]

AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.


Oh boy! Let the fun begin!
That scenario was in my thoughts earlier this morning. Interesting.

[wzrgirl1]

My curiosity lies with the synoptics and where that high pressure will be in the 10 day time frame. Any weakness at all might steer in toward the Carolinas depending on the latitude of the storm. I always think of Andrew and how they knew days ahead of time that the high pressure would stay strong. I will be watching this one very closely.

[Aric Dunn]

AND THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
BEGIN TO INTERACT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.


Oh boy! Let the fun begin!
That scenario was in my thoughts earlier this morning. Interesting.

yeah we knew that was coming..

[HURAKAN]

The wave coming out of Africa

[Aric Dunn]

I was just about to post that .. lol

that wave looks better... but both of them are moving very slowly..

[srainhoutx]

A bit wider view of the 'players'...

[Blown Away]

Now that's one big easter egg!
My kids would love it!

[HURAKAN]

a view of the entire Atlantic

[hurricaneCW]

So the waves are going to merge. If they do, what would happen.

[HURAKAN]

TPC 72 hours

[StormClouds63]

That's a new one....ha....this little diddy has been all over the map.

Wx_Warrior:

Your avatar ... yet another change I see!

Our ole' buddy Joe, who returned a few weeks ago, is now is holding a sign for for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

So, Wx_Warrior: Does 90L develop into a named system? Landfalling system or fish? Atlantic or Caribbean?

Finally, is the #3 storm this year pronounced "Colon" or "Cawlin"? I've watched a couple of broadcasts and it has been pronounced both ways. So, which is it?

[StormClouds63]

Another long wait likely ahead to see if a system is going to develop or not. Might not know for sure until Sunday or Monday. The scenario with the two waves "merging" is a new one to me, so that may take even more time for the one system to then consolidate.

If it survives, then the fish vs. non-fish arguments will begin. If it weren't so hot outside, I really would be "fishing."

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity increasing

[Aric Dunn]

Another long wait likely ahead to see if a system is going to develop or not. Might not know for sure until Sunday or Monday. The scenario with the two waves "merging" is a new one to me, so that may take even more time for the one system to then consolidate.

If it survives, then the fish vs. non-fish arguments will begin. If it weren't so hot outside, I really would be "fishing."

If the idea is somewhat new to you there was some good discussions about it at the beginning of this thread but more so down in the thread "blob at 30w" this merging was expected but your right the time it takes for such interactions to occur take various times depending many factors. On a side note and mentioned sometime ago was that since the wave off africa is quite a bit larger then the original 90L, it will likely be the dominate low. both seem to have decent low level turning, however the wave off africa has a much more expansive wind field. sunday or monday is a good bet, but we should really start to see the systems begin to interact more later tonight and tomorrow with some sort of more distinct surface feature beginning to develop on sunday sometime. Any upgrade wont likely happen till monday ( if at all). As for track... as long as it stays weak it will stay on a more west track and once it gets a little more organized a wnw track should take place. the GFDL and HWRF are just way too fast and this can easily be seen when you look at the current motion of the systems.... they are moving slow. the intensity is of course tricky but once a well defined center becomes established strengthening to a hurricane pretty quickly is very possible as all forecast call for low shear and good moisture envelope. all in all we get to wait as you said... lol