WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[KWT]

To be fair it comes in at Hong Kong at 40kts on that forecast, a windy and very wet day would result but nothing too bad...anyway in the short term may not get much stronger then it is now before landfall though I'd imagine it will make it to 65kts.

Besides as Cycloneye has just said it could well shift about anyway track wise.

[Typhoon10]

Typhoon Hunter, the JTWC track goes directly towards Hong Kong, but with time, it can change to the left or right of that city.

It sure does according to their warning 5. JMA about 60km to the west along with CWB too. All academic at the moment given it's 4 or 5 days out though.

Let's hope this passes over Luzon quickly and doesn't cause too much flooding. Conson is certainly going to capture my full attention this week!

Hunter. Am back in HK now, would be good to catch up sometime. Send me a message

[KWT]

Looking at the IR it seems like Conson is moving west at quite a quick rate. Looks like it may end up going through S/C Luzon instead of orginally expected N.Luzon.

[oaba09]

Looking at the IR it seems like Conson is moving west at quite a quick rate. Looks like it may end up going through S/C Luzon instead of orginally expected N.Luzon.

Yeah...what might be the cause of that? Is the STR not strong enough?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Good link here for satellite, CWB high res:
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=RGB

Updates every half an hour. Looking pretty solid right now. From JTWC at 1132z:

"H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. DT IS 3.5 BASED ON .80 WRAP
ON LOG SPIRAL. AT TIMES THERE IS A VERY WEAK EYE-LIKE FEATURE.
PT AND MET ALSO 3.5. DBO DT."

[Typhoon Hunter]

Eyewall trying to wrapped around nicely:

[KWT]

Looking at the IR it seems like Conson is moving west at quite a quick rate. Looks like it may end up going through S/C Luzon instead of orginally expected N.Luzon.

Yeah...what might be the cause of that? Is the STR not strong enough?

Probably just the upper ridge is a touch stronger then the models were expecting I think. Its looking decent there TH, you can see the eyewall is actually fairly well established, does raise the confidence of this being a typhoon by landfall...

Luzon does get hit by a great many storms, in fact the whole of the Philippines must be the most prone place in the world to be hit by Tropical Cyclones.

[oaba09]

PAGASA Update:



Tropical Storm "BASYANG" has gained more strength as it continues to move towards Isabela-Aurora Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 320 km East of Virac, Catanduanes
Coordinates: 14.5°N, 127.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and
Gustiness of up to 120 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 22 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday evening:
90 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
and is expected to make landfall before midnight
Wednesday evening:
120 km West Southwest of Laoag City
Thursday evening:
440 kms Northwest of Laoag City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal # 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Catanduanes
Camarines Norte
Polillo Is.
Aurora
Quirino
Isabela

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Camarines Sur
Albay
Quezon
Rizal
Bulacan
Nueva Ecija
Nueva Vizcaya
Ifugao
Benguet
Mt. Province
Kalinga
Cagayan

[oaba09]

LATEST FROM JMA: The sytem is still moving W...
****************************


<Analyses at 12/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 13/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E120°10'(120.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°25'(19.4°)
E116°30'(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[KWT]

Actually looks like a slight drip to the WSW on that map, should start to lift more to the WNW soon surely...

[oaba09]

Actually looks like a slight drip to the WSW on that map, should start to lift more to the WNW soon surely...

Yeah...it seems to be moving WSW right now......If it doesn't move WNW soon, it might make a landfall in the vicinity of central and southern Luzon...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

JMA at 18:50 UTC,60kts

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

STS 1002 (Conson)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 12 July 2010
<Analyses at 12/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°20'(14.3°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 280km(150NM)

[HURAKAN]

Eye is present, very small

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon at 21:00z Advisory

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.6N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.0N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.2N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.2N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 21.9N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.0N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 125.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

[fogbreath]

Geez, could you veer to the N or NW already and not strengthen too much more? My dad's province (Catanduanes) may not escape the thing, but I'd be happier if it started moving that way, at least for my parent's sake.

The current path takes it over my Mom's province too (but at least that's on the other side of Luzon)

[HURAKAN]

Getting flattened on the northern side

[KWT]

To be honest I'm not sure it looks like its a 65kts system right now, though I suppose the microwave imagery makes it a little hard to not upgrade it. Still it doesn't have the look of a strengthening system right now IMO, as Hurakan has just said the northern edge is getting flattened.

[Aslkahuna]

Catanduanes? You mean the Land of the Howling Wind? It takes a pretty far north or south track for that place not to get hit by some effect of a typhoon. Looks like my old stomping grounds at Clark is due for some hefty breezes (about 45-50 kt gusts if passing 23 N but if it passes over or 23 south then they are looking at 50-70 kt gusts.

Steve

[oaba09]

The STR held up.....bad news for people in southern-central luzon