ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Ntxw]

It doesn't look as symmetrical as before and elongated to the north/northeast. Perhaps this view is what some people are stating for shear coming into play. Storms with that kind of look tends to speed up (wxman I think said speed might pick up) being caught into a trough and I can see where this is coming from.

[HURAKAN]

Good sat pic of Paula

[HURAKAN]

Another excellent pic

[SouthDadeFish]

Look how different the outflow to the S are from the pics earlier compared to current images. Definitely more shear impacting Paula. She's so small she'll have a hard time fighting it.

[Shuriken]

Should Paula (a) miss Cuba and (b) accelerate east-bound in tandem with the increase in westerly shear, she may very well continue intensifying out past the Bahamas -- just like Otto.

[SouthDadeFish]

The upper level winds are forecast to be around 40 knots+. I don't think Paula will be moving 40 knots to the ENE....

[Battlebrick]

I'd like to point out that everyone was saying how Paula was weakening this morning and it should be downgraded to a TS when in reality it was going through RI. It seems like the same situation this time.

[brunota2003]

So looking at the purple, which indicates the top of the IR spectrum, would this be a tip-off to possible RI?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/jsl-l.jpg

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Depends on where the center is...But, assuming the purple is wrapping into the center, then yes I would say that IR will be likely occurring within the next 12 hours. The fact that part of it is overland will limit the IR some, but I could see the system getting to Cat 2 or 3 by tomorrow afternoon.

Was posted at 7:52 pm last night...not too shabby of a guess, since Paula did RI and became a Cat 2 before leveling off very early this afternoon.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'd like to point out that everyone was saying how Paula was weakening this morning and it should be downgraded to a TS when in reality it was going through RI. It seems like the same situation this time.

We'll see. Conditions are not as favorable as this morning.

[Ntxw]

I'd like to point out that everyone was saying how Paula was weakening this morning and it should be downgraded to a TS when in reality it was going through RI. It seems like the same situation this time.

The difference is that Paula is further north now vs then and the environment is not favorable and doesn't look to be. As long as she remains below the Antilles her odds are better.

[brunota2003]

I do not think Paula will RI again, if anything she might strengthen some, but I personally do not see any signs of a system getting ready to RI, or currently in the process.

[blp]

Any thoughts on whether the cone might shift at 11pm. I have been trying to catch up. Seems like quite a hard right turn starting tomorrow at 1pm per the last cone.

[SouthDadeFish]

I see no reason for them to shift the cone. The models are still very spread out.

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful

[Evil Jeremy]

Any thoughts on whether the cone might shift at 11pm. I have been trying to catch up. Seems like quite a hard right turn starting tomorrow at 1pm per the last cone.

I highly doubt the turn itself will be that sharp. Anyways, I think the cone will be moved up north. Perhaps not solely on the storm's own merits, but if more of SFL can be moved into the cone, it could raise awareness about a possible threat being on its way. I think the cone's center will skim Cuba's north coast.

[boca]

Any thoughts on whether the cone might shift at 11pm. I have been trying to catch up. Seems like quite a hard right turn starting tomorrow at 1pm per the last cone.

I highly doubt the turn itself will be that sharp. Anyways, I think the cone will be moved up north. Perhaps not solely on the storm's own merits, but if more of SFL can be moved into the cone, it could raise awareness about a possible threat being on its way. I think the cone's center will skim Cuba's north coast.

I think the NHC is right with the hard right turn look at the water vapor. notice the shortwave presing SE towards Florida which would force Paula ENE along the Cuban coatline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[Florida1118]

Any thoughts on whether the cone might shift at 11pm. I have been trying to catch up. Seems like quite a hard right turn starting tomorrow at 1pm per the last cone.

I highly doubt the turn itself will be that sharp. Anyways, I think the cone will be moved up north. Perhaps not solely on the storm's own merits, but if more of SFL can be moved into the cone, it could raise awareness about a possible threat being on its way. I think the cone's center will skim Cuba's north coast.

Are you talking about the 3day cone or 5day? Because if the 5day i on the very coast of N Cuba, most of the peninsula would be covered by cone.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm leaning towards Paula being a sheared mess even if it were to pass close to SFL. It's such a fragile cyclone.

[Macrocane]

Now I see what some of you said about erosion on the southern side, it may not be a rapid weakening but certainly it looks like it peaked.

[Sanibel]

The turn could be starting. Or it could just be a quirk in the CDO.