ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Close-up

[TexasF6]

The inflow really looks good now....the wheels are a turnin....

[Hurricane]

I'm still not too excited to see much from this until after it passes (IMO --> SOUTH OF) Florida.

I'll put it this way - not a single "take caution" call to my Dad on Big Pine.

I might as well put in a loop tape for the next few days instead of posting:

"weaker, further west....weaker, further west.....weaker, further west"

Wake me up when it crosses 80W and Texas is in the cone.....

LOL

[sunnyday]

So, it looks like a SE Fl miss after all??

[srainhoutx]

I'm still not too excited to see much from this until after it passes (IMO --> SOUTH OF) Florida.

I'll put it this way - not a single "take caution" call to my Dad on Big Pine.

I might as well put in a loop tape for the next few days instead of posting:

"weaker, further west....weaker, further west.....weaker, further west"

Wake me up when it crosses 80W and Texas is in the cone.....

I hear you Jason. I have certainly not made that call to the Lower Keys that was all to familiar in 08.

HGX did have an interesting take concerning 97L in our afternoon AFD...

SOME FCST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS DETAILS WILL HINGE ON WHAT THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS ENDS UP DOING. HURRICANE MODELS GENERALLY
TAKE IT NWWD TOWARD THE ERN GULF COAST BETWEEN NEW ORLEANS AND THE
FL PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS ALL
KEEP THIS FEATURE MOVING WWD THRU THE GULF AS AN OPEN WAVE UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSIDERING NOTHING HAS YET DEVELOPED FEEL
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO TREND THE FCST WITH
THE ABOVE MODELS. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK - AND PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS EVENTUALLY NEEDED
BUT TIMING AS TO WHEN WE GET ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WET SUNDAY WHILE
CANADIAN/GFS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE BEGINNING MON. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO TWEAK AS FCST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. 47

[ROCK]

I noticed that also. Note the ULL is pulling away more and more with each passing hour. Tomorrow should allow for steady development of 97L with the ULL far enough away to not be a major factor. It already is starting to get its act together today with some shear....

I do agree though I'd like see this trend carry on for a little longer though, esp becuase the lower level flow is quite quick and could speed the system up as well shortly. Will have to watch and see.

The fact we probably have some sort of low level circulation, even if not closed, is a big step forward...

you picked that up huh KWT.... steering map gives it away....pretty quick low level flow

[HURAKAN]

So, it looks like a SE Fl miss after all??

Always check the model thread

[Blown Away]

Not saying it's going to happen but 2 storms that developed west of 97L and landfalled in Florida as Hurricanes. Erin jumped from wave to TS on July 31st and landfalled in Central Florida as a Cat 1 on August 1st.

[Aquawind]

That is the closest and deepest convection near the center today. Won't be long..location is right.

[eastcoastFL]

Is that why its been so windy here? I am in boca and its been very windy all day. Seems too far away to be windy here

The wind affecting Florida is related to the ridge, not 97L

oh

[Wx_Warrior]

Just not getting the "its coming, or wheels are turning, or almost there, or TD in 5 minutes" feeling.

Talking to a few pro mets & looking at some of the reliable models, just don't think this is a big hurricane in the making.

[clfenwi]

I forget what it is called but I haven't seen a wind sat pic for ever for this storm yet. Are there any of the area? And maybe a link for where to find it? TIA

It's always hit/miss with the scatterometer data, but from what I've checked the past couple of days it's been nothing but misses for the satellite passes. If the pass log is accurate, we should have a good windsat pass later today, though.

[jasons2k]

HOWEVER...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS ALL
KEEP THIS FEATURE MOVING WWD THRU THE GULF AS AN OPEN WAVE UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSIDERING NOTHING HAS YET DEVELOPED FEEL
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO TREND THE FCST WITH
THE ABOVE MODELS.

Aha, thanks for posting this. That's my story and I'm sticking to it unless there are drastic changes (not saying there can't be).

I think this will have a better chance to develop (or strengthen if it is a weak Bonnie, etc.) once it emerges into the Gulf but way too many question marks that far out.

[StormClouds63]

OFF Topic - you all may want to check out the BOC and the other forum something going on down there.

Lake Charles NWS had mentioned last week that development in BOC was possible ... but I think they had said it would be on Tuesday (yesterday). Still worth checking out.

Now, back to 97L.

[Hurricane]

HOWEVER...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS ALL
KEEP THIS FEATURE MOVING WWD THRU THE GULF AS AN OPEN WAVE UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSIDERING NOTHING HAS YET DEVELOPED FEEL
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO TREND THE FCST WITH
THE ABOVE MODELS.

Aha, thanks for posting this. That's my story and I'm sticking to it unless there are drastic changes (not saying there can't be).

I think this will have a better chance to develop (or strengthen if it is a weak Bonnie, etc.) once it emerges into the Gulf but way too many question marks that far out.

Jason, do you think Houston should keep an eye on this?

[Aric Dunn]

Grace Bay in the Turks and Caicos has a pressure now down to 1007mb... the "center" is passing very close to the area..

[KWT]

I'm still happy with a S.Florida landfall, the ULL seems to have a tugging effect with these sorts of systems I've found in the past where the deeper convection keeps on getting shunted to the NE which see the circulation open up and close a little to the north-west of the previous location. Steering currents strongly point to a WNW other then that.

Jasons, i'm not sure the conditions will be that good in the Gulf but we shall see, the models are even weaker in the Gulf then they are before Florida.

[artist]

Grace Bay in the Turks and Caicos has a pressure now down to 1007mb... the "center" is passing very close to the area..

any wind info?

[ROCK]

HOWEVER...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN/NOGAPS ALL
KEEP THIS FEATURE MOVING WWD THRU THE GULF AS AN OPEN WAVE UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CONSIDERING NOTHING HAS YET DEVELOPED FEEL
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT IS TO TREND THE FCST WITH
THE ABOVE MODELS.

Aha, thanks for posting this. That's my story and I'm sticking to it unless there are drastic changes (not saying there can't be).

I think this will have a better chance to develop (or strengthen if it is a weak Bonnie, etc.) once it emerges into the Gulf but way too many question marks that far out.

I got the same story.....well its really the EURO story and now the CMC story but its the same nonetheless.....

[jasons2k]

Jason, do you think Houston should keep an eye on this?

Yes, I do, I've been inferring that for the last couple of days. And I don't say that because I'm a Texan...I call 'em like I see 'em.

I'm not overly concerned yet....this thing might be fighting shear the whole way across. But any time there is the potential for a westward/WNW moving system coming through the FL Straits into the GOM, with a ridge parked over the SE US, it is something we should watch very carefully.