ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[poof121]

I forget what it is called but I haven't seen a wind sat pic for ever for this storm yet. Are there any of the area? And maybe a link for where to find it? TIA

Look here...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

[ROCK]

still extremely sheared system...looks like the weak LLC is elongated from SW to NE or its moving west and closer to Cuba than what some of the North biased models had been taking it...just an observation.....still not stacked and wont be until shear relaxes and convection can be sustained over the center....

[x-y-no]

Looks to to me the LLC has either A) becoming elongated from SWto NE or it is moving south of west....hard to tell...towards Cuba

I'll go with elongated, although it's still uncertain to me it ever really closed off, mostly I'm seeing a really sharp wave.

Anyway, there's no reason for it to move south of west, so I'd discount that idea.

[Bocadude85]

Okay, definite pressure drop here in the Turks and Caicos...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MD0758

Another station with dropping pressure:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IBWIPROV3

Yet another, this one with 28 mph winds, gusting to 42...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

Wow yea pressure has been dropping all day... and the wind gusts over 40mph is impressive also

[mascpa]

I keep looking and looking at all of these loops and I simply can not find any evidence of a west wind. It may be close, very close, but there is no closed LLC at this moment.

[miamijaaz]

I'm in the Turks on vacation atm. About 2 hours ago rain squalls began to arrive every 15 to 20 minutes or so. Wind is blowing from the N-NE at around 15 to 20 knots, higher in the squalls.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... looks like many of the recent sheared systems we have seen

[KWT]

The fact pressures is dropping is probably due to the recent development of the weak LLC. Its far from potent and it is indeed sheared.

Movement to me looks near due west. ROCK, center looks to me to be well clear of Cuba for now, even if it went due west for a day.

[JtSmarts]

That loop tailgater posted also does a great job of showing how much the convection has increased around a possible center since it waned last night. It definitely puts today's development in perspective.

[poof121]

I keep looking and looking at all of these loops and I simply can not find any evidence of a west wind. It may be close, very close, but there is no closed LLC at this moment.

Looks like something just south Caicos island on this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Hurricane]

still extremely sheared system...looks like the weak LLC is elongated from SW to NE or its moving west and closer to Cuba than what some of the North biased models had been taking it...just an observation.....still not stacked and wont be until shear relaxes and convection can be sustained over the center....

I noticed that too. Models should be more west.

[Weatherboy1]

Looks like shear might be letting up a little bit, and that we may have the first hints of convection firing over the presumed LLC. If ... IF ... this trend continues, we could finally get a depression out of this thing overnight.

[HURAKAN]

If it were to move straight west, Google Earth says it's over 350 miles from Cuban shores

[gatorcane]

Looks like shear might be letting up a little bit, and that we may have the first hints of convection firing over the presumed LLC. If ... IF ... this trend continues, we could finally get a depression out of this thing overnight.

I noticed that also. Note the ULL is pulling away more and more with each passing hour. Tomorrow should allow for steady development of 97L with the ULL far enough away to not be a major factor. It already is starting to get its act together today with some shear....

[ROCK]

The fact pressures is dropping is probably due to the recent development of the weak LLC. Its far from potent and it is indeed sheared.

Movement to me looks near due west. ROCK, center looks to me to be well clear of Cuba for now, even if it went due west for a day.

west to me also....but it might clip Cuba...hard to tell what the center is doing..sometimes it looks closed then sometimes it looks elongated or open.....

steering:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[tolakram]

Pressure continues to fall.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MD0758

[ROCK]

If it were to move straight west, Google Earth says it's over 350 miles from Cuban shores

so you are saying there is a chance?

[jasons2k]

I'm still not too excited to see much from this until after it passes (IMO --> SOUTH OF) Florida.

I'll put it this way - not a single "take caution" call to my Dad on Big Pine.

I might as well put in a loop tape for the next few days instead of posting:

"weaker, further west....weaker, further west.....weaker, further west"

Wake me up when it crosses 80W and Texas is in the cone.....

[HURAKAN]

If it were to move straight west, Google Earth says it's over 350 miles from Cuban shores

so you are saying there is a chance?

Keep the faith!

[KWT]

I noticed that also. Note the ULL is pulling away more and more with each passing hour. Tomorrow should allow for steady development of 97L with the ULL far enough away to not be a major factor. It already is starting to get its act together today with some shear....

I do agree though I'd like see this trend carry on for a little longer though, esp becuase the lower level flow is quite quick and could speed the system up as well shortly. Will have to watch and see.

The fact we probably have some sort of low level circulation, even if not closed, is a big step forward...