ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

#1121 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:20 pm

So what do you think about that plume of convection blowing up in the Caribbean South of Cuba, near Jamaica --- looks like all that moisture is being sucked into this thing now.....

#1122 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:22 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:I'm smelling a 'Special Advisory" coming from the NHC soon.

A special advisory for what?

JMHO, if 97L continues w/ this development I can see a quick jump to TD given the proximity to the Bahamas.

#1123 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:23 pm

Nice 24 hr loop of ULL and how it now seems to be backing off to the WNW quicker than 97 is moving west or WNW.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

#1124 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:24 pm

Latest

canes04 · #1125 Postby **canes04** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:25 pm

gatorcane, I was just noticing that.

I think we got lucky last night with the shear disrupting 97L.
I think Bonnie is well on her way, and very short notice for us in SFL.

HURRICANELONNY · #1126 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:27 pm

I'm hoping for a tropical storm just so the NHC doesn't look so bad. It's about to go from 70% to 0 if the TUTT doesn't get out of the way. I don't think the SAL will be much of a problem. It sure is a hazy, dusty day here in S. FL.

Bocadude85 · #1127 Postby **Bocadude85** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:27 pm

canes04 wrote:gatorcane, I was just noticing that.

I think we got lucky last night with the shear disrupting 97L.
I think Bonnie is well on her way, and very short notice for us in SFL.

You really dont have to make many preparations for a TD or weak TS

KWT · #1128 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:29 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:I'm hoping for a tropical storm just so the NHC doesn't look so bad. It's about to go from 70% to 0 if the TUTT doesn't get out of the way. I don't think the SAL will be much of a problem. It sure is a hazy, dusty day here in S. FL.

Not so sure about that, its probably close to development right now. Sure its sheared but there is a circulation thats veruy nearly closed and maybe just a little weak on the southern side. Right now its a very sharp trough. Wouldn't take much of a burst near the center to tip it over the edge.

eastcoastFL · #1129 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:30 pm

Is that why its been so windy here? I am in boca and its been very windy all day. Seems too far away to be windy here

#1130 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:31 pm

7:30 hours apart

ronjon · #1131 Postby **ronjon** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:31 pm

This is definitely getting very close to a tropical cyclone. I see a low level circulation that is winding up. There is some dry air and shear still but the main inhibitor right now is inflow being disrupted by Hispanola. Once it pulls away from the big island, I think we have a tropical depression.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

#1132 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:31 pm

48 HOUR FORECAST LOW
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...25N80W 1009
MB. WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13
FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N W OF 70W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 TO 10 FT.

Update from Buoy Station 41046 SE Bahamas -- note the forecast of 1009 mb

#1133 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:31 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Is that why its been so windy here? I am in boca and its been very windy all day. Seems too far away to be windy here

The wind affecting Florida is related to the ridge, not 97L

#1134 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:34 pm

In the last hour or so, you can see alot of convection that just got dumped off of the Dominican Republic from afternoon heating, that is heading into the system also.

It's pretty neat to see these systems really start to develop. They seem like vacuum cleaners that suck in anything around it....

A good word for where 97L is at right now is "seminal"

Vortmax1 · #1135 Postby **Vortmax1** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:34 pm

Has a TCFA been issued on this system yet?
I checked the NRL and I don't see it.
I've been away for a while and maybe I missed something.

bbadon · #1136 Postby **bbadon** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:35 pm

OFF Topic - you all may want to check out the BOC and the other forum something going on down there.

#1137 Postby **bvigal** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:37 pm

tailgater wrote:Nice 24 hr loop of ULL and how it now seems to be backing off to the WNW quicker than 97 is moving west or WNW.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

AWESOME loop, thanks for posting! Really does give a good picture of ULL speeding up.

poof121 · #1138 Postby **poof121** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:42 pm

Okay, definite pressure drop here in the Turks and Caicos...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MD0758

Another station with dropping pressure:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IBWIPROV3

Yet another, this one with 28 mph winds, gusting to 42...

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

ROCK · #1139 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:43 pm

Looks to to me the LLC has either A) becoming elongated from SWto NE or it is moving south of west....hard to tell...towards Cuba

artist · #1140 Postby **artist** » Wed Jul 21, 2010 3:48 pm

I forget what it is called but I haven't seen a wind sat pic for ever for this storm yet. Are there any of the area? And maybe a link for where to find it?

TIA

ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

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