ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

I guess the NHC let it go after all. Bye Colin, see you in 2016.

[KWT]

Hurricanecw...yeah its gone...for now...

I think conditions may well be condusive for development in the Bahamas but as Wxman57 said there will be nothing at all left of the Colin we've had.

Exactly the same system as 92L really, but just that little bit more advanced due to it being August.

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Amazing to see the NHC actually forecasting redevelopment down the line, but not all that surprising IMO given conditions look ok much further away and further away from the TUTT....but for the next 72-96hrs conditions look just terrible.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that it's still the C storm by the official NHC standards, but personally, I don't think it even deserved a name. I agree with what WXMAN said bout it. So in my own mind, we've only had an 'A' and 'B' storm this year...

[Aric Dunn]

so Im guessing this thread should stay open since redevelopment is forecast...??

[hurricaneCW]

Hurricanecw...yeah its gone...for now...

I think conditions may well be condusive for development in the Bahamas but as Wxman57 said there will be nothing at all left of the Colin we've had.

Exactly the same system as 92L really, but just that little bit more advanced due to it being August.

I personally don't think it's coming back. First of all, the TUTT will continue to shred it apart. Second, even if conditions improve, it would take 2-3 days for something to organize if there's even anything left. By that time, it will either be inland or way out to sea, probably inland since it's a wave.

[cycloneye]

so Im guessing this thread should stay open since redevelopment is forecast...??

Yes,it remains open to allow comments until the end of it whereever it may be.

[jlauderdal]

We're going to running out of time every time someone says "just 2 more weeks". Saying that was okay in July, but it will be past mid August by then or the so called active part of the season. I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

just wait.

Been hearing that for weeks, still waiting...[/quote]

hyperactive season...i will never forget that one

[caribepr]

We're going to running out of time every time someone says "just 2 more weeks". Saying that was okay in July, but it will be past mid August by then or the so called active part of the season. I'm not seeing any indications of a more favorable Atlantic.

That's a good thing, right? Unfortunately, things can change quite quickly out there.

<applause> & shhhhhh!

[KWT]

I personally don't think it's coming back. First of all, the TUTT will continue to shred it apart. Second, even if conditions improve, it would take 2-3 days for something to organize if there's even anything left. By that time, it will either be inland or way out to sea, probably inland since it's a wave.

Oh the TUTT will destroy whatever is left for sure, but I do see improving conditions in the Bahamas, esp once its around 70-75W and the shear starts to ease off...but the SHIPS is just in lala land with thier strength. Not expecting anything amazing if it does come back, could even see it becoming a new system if it gets too destroyed...but yeah there is a reason why the NHC are also forecasting regeneration...

[AdamFirst]

I can't even tell where a center could be, if there is one.

[wxman57]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

[Aric Dunn]

Well I am looking for some redevelopment of a surface feature within this mass of convection. there is quite a bit of vorticity still and quite a bit of convection. The low level swirl/vorticity will continue to merge with the developing convection. I dont think we will see colin come back for a couple days but there is enough divergence to keep convection around so that we should keep at least a sharp wave axis or a broad circ. Dont write this off just yet as it is the tropics...

[ravyrn]

Hurricanecw...yeah its gone...for now...

I think conditions may well be condusive for development in the Bahamas but as Wxman57 said there will be nothing at all left of the Colin we've had.

Exactly the same system as 92L really, but just that little bit more advanced due to it being August.

I personally don't think it's coming back. First of all, the TUTT will continue to shred it apart. Second, even if conditions improve, it would take 2-3 days for something to organize if there's even anything left. By that time, it will either be inland or way out to sea, probably inland since it's a wave.

On what basis are you stating it will likely be "inland" in 2-3 days? All the models seem to hint in 48 hrs north of PR, in 72 hrs NE Bahamas. That's hardly inland.

[Gustywind]

[hurricaneCW]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

How accurate is this?

[SouthFLTropics]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

I don't think he made a mistake on the classification considering he said this earlier in the discussion:

"THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST."

[hurricaneCW]

Hurricanecw...yeah its gone...for now...

I think conditions may well be condusive for development in the Bahamas but as Wxman57 said there will be nothing at all left of the Colin we've had.

Exactly the same system as 92L really, but just that little bit more advanced due to it being August.

I personally don't think it's coming back. First of all, the TUTT will continue to shred it apart. Second, even if conditions improve, it would take 2-3 days for something to organize if there's even anything left. By that time, it will either be inland or way out to sea, probably inland since it's a wave.

On what basis are you stating it will likely be "inland" in 2-3 days? All the models seem to hint in 48 hrs north of PR, in 72 hrs NE Bahamas. That's hardly inland.

No I mean if it were to redevelop further west, 70-75W, then it would probably head westward and inland.

[expat2carib]

Maybe Jack (Beven) just made a mistake on the classification at hour 120? Easy to do. It would be like the NHC forecasting a depression to develop from a tropical wave 5 days in the future.

DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH
96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.

I don't think so.