ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[SunnyFla]

It appears that the NHC is fairly confident that Earl will turn northwards and SE Florida should be all clear where Earl is concerned. Would that be an accurate statement or is this something that SE Floridians should continue to monitor?

[wzrgirl1]

removed....posted in wrong thread.

[jabber]

It appears that the NHC is fairly confident that Earl will turn northwards and SE Florida should be all clear where Earl is concerned. Would that be an accurate statement or is this something that SE Floridians should continue to monitor?

No you are not out of the clear. Models and forcasts are great but by no means perfect. this is the time to start making sure you have all your supplies in order.... just in case

[gatorcane]

It appears that the NHC is fairly confident that Earl will turn northwards and SE Florida should be all clear where Earl is concerned. Would that be an accurate statement or is this something that SE Floridians should continue to monitor?

I believe it is too early to make that call...someone posted a model run in the model thread that showed a direct hit on the east coast of Florida....so all eyes need to be focused on this.

That model run was the 00z ecmwf which brings 97l into Florida not this one

[aerology]

I'd say judging from the rapid uptick in guest count a lot of people think this needs watching.
I live in tornado alley, I don't sleep till the radar clears up.

[wzrgirl1]

It appears that the NHC is fairly confident that Earl will turn northwards and SE Florida should be all clear where Earl is concerned. Would that be an accurate statement or is this something that SE Floridians should continue to monitor?

I believe it is too early to make that call...someone posted a model run in the model thread that showed a direct hit on the east coast of Florida....so all eyes need to be focused on this.

That model run was the 00z ecmwf which brings 97l into Florida not this one

Yes if you go back...I quickly edited my post when I realized that. Sorry!

[Blown Away]

It appears that the NHC is fairly confident that Earl will turn northwards and SE Florida should be all clear where Earl is concerned. Would that be an accurate statement or is this something that SE Floridians should continue to monitor?

Well you live in SFL so you should always watch closely. I think there is a very high confidence that Earl will bring nothing more than swells to SFL. 97L is what you should be watching, IMO.

[SunnyFla]

One more question (please be patient-I am trying to learn): from 50W to current position Earl has gained latitute as the NHC numbers show, however, in all the NHC postings Earl has been "moving West". Is this increase in latitude normal for a storm "moving West"?


Donna

[SunnyFla]

It appears that the NHC is fairly confident that Earl will turn northwards and SE Florida should be all clear where Earl is concerned. Would that be an accurate statement or is this something that SE Floridians should continue to monitor?

Well you live in SFL so you should always watch closely. I think there is a very high confidence that Earl will bring nothing more than swells to SFL. 97L is what you should be watching, IMO.

Thanks! I am watching 97L also. I think I will head out for some supply shopping (batteries) etc. to be prepared early.

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Earl continues to travel extremely closely towards the Leewards Islands...

[cpdaman]

I would also like to point out that the NHC forecast posted by (msbee....stay safe!) which mentions earl should be a hurricane within 24 hours and then a major by (MID WEEK) should not lull people in the island thinking this won't or couldn't be stronger.

IMO the NHC and most guidance is almost always conservative in the TIME it takes for a hurricane to go from CAT 1 to major....i think this could happen in the next 24-36 hours......so my intent would be to have people prepare for a strong hurricane in the islands....we all no what happened w/ charlie in florida...not saying that will happen...but prepare like it will Is my advice

[wzrgirl1]

It appears that the NHC is fairly confident that Earl will turn northwards and SE Florida should be all clear where Earl is concerned. Would that be an accurate statement or is this something that SE Floridians should continue to monitor?

Well you live in SFL so you should always watch closely. I think there is a very high confidence that Earl will bring nothing more than swells to SFL. 97L is what you should be watching, IMO.

Thanks! I am watching 97L also. I think I will head out for some supply shopping (batteries) etc. to be prepared early.

We are doing that today also. Just some extra water and canned food. You can never be too prepared.

[sevenleft]

I would also like to point out that the NHC forecast posted by (msbee....stay safe!) which mentions earl should be a hurricane within 24 hours and then a major by (MID WEEK) should not lull people in the island thinking this won't or couldn't be stronger.

IMO the NHC and most guidance is almost always conservative in the TIME it takes for a hurricane to go from CAT 1 to major....i think this could happen in the next 24-36 hours......so my intent would be to have people prepare for a strong hurricane in the islands....we all no what happened w/ charlie in florida...not saying that will happen...but prepare like it will Is my advice

Largely depends on the influence of Danielle's outflow. It should become less of a factor as the day goes on. The quicker that shear lessens, the quicker Earl will strengthen. You can already see the "flatness" beginning to abate. It is less pronounced, and looks mainly to be on Earl's eastern side, meaning that Earl is moving away form the heaviest northerly shear.

[ColinDelia]

One more question (please be patient-I am trying to learn): from 50W to current position Earl has gained latitute as the NHC numbers show, however, in all the NHC postings Earl has been "moving West". Is this increase in latitude normal for a storm "moving West"?


Donna

Latest advisory says:
"PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR"

Precisely west would be 270 degrees so in reality Earl is moving a hair north of westward but not enough to say "West north west"

[SunnyFla]

One more question (please be patient-I am trying to learn): from 50W to current position Earl has gained latitute as the NHC numbers show, however, in all the NHC postings Earl has been "moving West". Is this increase in latitude normal for a storm "moving West"?


Donna

Latest advisory says:
"PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR"

Precisely west would be 270 degrees so in reality Earl is moving a hair north of westward but not enough to say "West north west"

Thank you for the explanation ColinDelia!

[HugoCameandLeft]

I'd say judging from the rapid uptick in guest count a lot of people think this needs watching.
I live in tornado alley, I don't sleep till the radar clears up.

Charleston, SC here - keeping an eye on it, although NHC seems confident we are okay (me, not so much)

[CapeCod1995]

I'm new to storm2k as of today. What are the chances of Cape Cod having a landfall of Hurricane Earl?

[cycloneye]

Here are web cams from ST Maarteen and St John. Looks eerie there. You can see these and more cams at the first post of the Caribbean thread at U.S & Caribbean Weather forum.



St John bay cam

[dexterlabio]

Finally a hurricane. You guys got a double whammy out there, Earl in the Caribbean while Fiona expected to reach SFL as a dangerous hurricane.

[Gustywind]

Hey Luis have you got the Best Track?
Tkanks