Well tonight's burst of growth surge as the moon passed overhead (just South with in 8 degrees) pulled in some of the dryer depleted air in the out wash of Danielle, "that was just out there" in the 15 degree zone of the tidal bulge center, as it shoved the top of the convection, around and to the southern side, (Shear is the term they use for it).
Leaving the lower level center of circulation kinda back to the East, when the shear, drops Earl will become more consolidated, by pulling itself under the center of the fresh convection that was pulled West as the day dawns, and the web cams start to show clouds.
ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
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Gustywind
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Latest news in the islands...
This time orange code have been requiered for Guadeloupe and yellow code for Martinica. Meteo-France Guadeloupe emphasizes on the fact that the Northern Leewards should pass in RED code during the next hours if Earl continues to track near or on the Northern Leewards.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php
Gustywind
This time orange code have been requiered for Guadeloupe and yellow code for Martinica. Meteo-France Guadeloupe emphasizes on the fact that the Northern Leewards should pass in RED code during the next hours if Earl continues to track near or on the Northern Leewards.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.phpGustywind
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WeatherGuesser
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WeatherGuesser
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blazess556
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cycloneye
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Re:
blazess556 wrote:AL, 07, 2010082912, , BEST, 0, 171N, 577W, 65, 985, HU, 50, NEQ, 35, 0, 0, 30
There it is!!
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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ColinDelia
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cwachal
000
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion
i think we will see some rapid intensification about now......
more heat potential in the waters and less effect from danielle's tail's 'shear'
I think the extreme northern island's r in big trouble i.e batten down the hatches! ( barbuda ....st. martin) and ESPecially anguilla) ....however there is still a good chance that he turns a bit more north now that he is out of the shadow of danielle....so every few miles willl have a huge difference
imo he should b a major by the time it goes very close to IMO anguilla mon am.
more heat potential in the waters and less effect from danielle's tail's 'shear'
I think the extreme northern island's r in big trouble i.e batten down the hatches! ( barbuda ....st. martin) and ESPecially anguilla) ....however there is still a good chance that he turns a bit more north now that he is out of the shadow of danielle....so every few miles willl have a huge difference
imo he should b a major by the time it goes very close to IMO anguilla mon am.
Last edited by cpdaman on Sun Aug 29, 2010 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Gustywind
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From Crown Weather discussion
Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Issued: Sunday, August 29, 2010 835 am EDT/735 am CDT
Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.
Discussion
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl has been waxing and waning in intensity and organization over the last 24 hours. This likely due to some northerly wind shear associated with the outflow from Hurricane Danielle. Earl is currently a 70 mph tropical storm this morning. All indications are that the wind shear will start to decrease as Danielle moves away. This decrease in wind shear should begin later today and I expect Earl to become a hurricane by later today or at the very latest tonight. The intensity model guidance is in good agreement that Earl will reach Category 3 strength by Wednesday and possibly approach Category 4 strength on Thursday.
Earl is tracking nearly due west at a forward speed of 18 mph. The storm is expected to reach the southwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure which should cause Earl to turn to the west-northwest and slow down in forward speed by Monday. Beyond Monday, a break develops in the ridge of high pressure between 65 and 70 West Longitude and Earl is expected to turn northwestward into this weakness by Tuesday and Wednesday and then ultimately turn due north by late this week. Most of the latest track guidance turns Earl northward between 71 and 72 West Longitude.
Earl will pass very close to the northern Leeward Islands from late tonight through Monday and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Hurricane conditions are expected across the northern Leeward Islands starting this evening and continuing through much of Monday. These hurricane conditions are expected to develop westward across the US and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico starting Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. All interests in these areas should monitor local news media for the latest updates and prepare today for hurricane conditions. For interests at the local ports, docks and marinas, it is highly recommended that you perform the necessary preparations to prepare for hurricane conditions. If you live on a boat, safely secure your craft and leave it for adequate land based shelter today. For additional local information, please refer to advice relative to your exact location from your local National Weather Service office and local Emergency Management Office.
The long range track for Earl is highly speculative as the model guidance varies on how close Earl tracks to the North Carolina coast as well as southeastern New England. The GFS model forecasts a close brush with the outer banks of North Carolina on Thursday evening and then a track off of Cape Cod that would bring tropical storm force conditions to Cape Cod and hurricane conditions to Nantucket during Friday. The European model forecasts a track for Earl that would keep it far enough offshore to give the outer banks of North Carolina tropical storm conditions at best, however, the European model forecasts a track that would bring tropical storm conditions to much of eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and hurricane conditions to Nantucket during Friday and also a pretty significant hurricane hit on Nova Scotia later Friday.
So, all interests from eastern North Carolina northward to New England and the Canadian Maritimes should closely monitor the progress of Earl very closely.
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.
Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Issued: Sunday, August 29, 2010 835 am EDT/735 am CDT
Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.
Discussion
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl has been waxing and waning in intensity and organization over the last 24 hours. This likely due to some northerly wind shear associated with the outflow from Hurricane Danielle. Earl is currently a 70 mph tropical storm this morning. All indications are that the wind shear will start to decrease as Danielle moves away. This decrease in wind shear should begin later today and I expect Earl to become a hurricane by later today or at the very latest tonight. The intensity model guidance is in good agreement that Earl will reach Category 3 strength by Wednesday and possibly approach Category 4 strength on Thursday.
Earl is tracking nearly due west at a forward speed of 18 mph. The storm is expected to reach the southwestern edge of a ridge of high pressure which should cause Earl to turn to the west-northwest and slow down in forward speed by Monday. Beyond Monday, a break develops in the ridge of high pressure between 65 and 70 West Longitude and Earl is expected to turn northwestward into this weakness by Tuesday and Wednesday and then ultimately turn due north by late this week. Most of the latest track guidance turns Earl northward between 71 and 72 West Longitude.
Earl will pass very close to the northern Leeward Islands from late tonight through Monday and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Hurricane conditions are expected across the northern Leeward Islands starting this evening and continuing through much of Monday. These hurricane conditions are expected to develop westward across the US and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico starting Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. All interests in these areas should monitor local news media for the latest updates and prepare today for hurricane conditions. For interests at the local ports, docks and marinas, it is highly recommended that you perform the necessary preparations to prepare for hurricane conditions. If you live on a boat, safely secure your craft and leave it for adequate land based shelter today. For additional local information, please refer to advice relative to your exact location from your local National Weather Service office and local Emergency Management Office.
The long range track for Earl is highly speculative as the model guidance varies on how close Earl tracks to the North Carolina coast as well as southeastern New England. The GFS model forecasts a close brush with the outer banks of North Carolina on Thursday evening and then a track off of Cape Cod that would bring tropical storm force conditions to Cape Cod and hurricane conditions to Nantucket during Friday. The European model forecasts a track for Earl that would keep it far enough offshore to give the outer banks of North Carolina tropical storm conditions at best, however, the European model forecasts a track that would bring tropical storm conditions to much of eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and hurricane conditions to Nantucket during Friday and also a pretty significant hurricane hit on Nova Scotia later Friday.
So, all interests from eastern North Carolina northward to New England and the Canadian Maritimes should closely monitor the progress of Earl very closely.
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion
Earl is a hurricane now and right on our doorstep. we are 18.1, 63.1
EARL IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AS OF 29/1230 UTC. HURRICANE
EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 57.7W AT 29/1230 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT
320 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 16 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL APPEARS TO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW
FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE WITH THE OUTFLOW OF EARL RESTRICTED ON
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TODAY AS EARL MOVES AWAY FROM DANIELLE. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MID WEEK. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 55W-58W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAST APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
EARL IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AS OF 29/1230 UTC. HURRICANE
EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 57.7W AT 29/1230 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT
320 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 16 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL APPEARS TO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW
FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE WITH THE OUTFLOW OF EARL RESTRICTED ON
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TODAY AS EARL MOVES AWAY FROM DANIELLE. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MID WEEK. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 55W-58W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAST APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
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Too many hurricanes to remember
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