ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Aquawind]

Bummer most still show a turn and I doubt the BAM have a clue late in the forecast from what MWatkins mentioned in a prior thread..

[KWT]

HWRF quite clearly the northerly outlier and thus can probably be discounted at least for the first 24hrs of its forecast.

This is such a tough set-up for the models simply because Matthew may end up dying out totally and a new area forming, it may have enough of a lingering effect to relocate, or it may survive in its on right by either staying close to the coast of the E.Yucatan or even getting into the BoC.

Haven't had this tough a forecast in a long ole time!

[ronjon]

14 of 20 GFS ensemble members take Mathew north or northeast from just east of the Yucatan on path from NO to the FL peninsula.

[KWT]

There is little doubt about what will happen in the end, the whole lot is going to come N/NE and all models agree about that, its just in what form does this occur, 1 TC, 2 TCs or maybe a large mix of broad energy, who knows!

How Matthew tracks is going to be very important as to how this set-up eventually resolves itself,

[Aquawind]

Well Said KWT.. Thanks for staying up so late..

maybe a large mix of broad energy, who knows!

LOL..that does sound a bit dreamy though..but I so hope that happens..

[BigB0882]

I'm disregarding the BAMM models. All season long they have shown southwest dips at the end of their runs. It has been happening time and time again. Maybe they will eventually be right? lol It is interesting that GFS shows the same thing but its ensemble members almost all disagree.

[ROCK]

Day 7 from HPC:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

Funny how yesterday someone posted the HPC at day 7 and it had a front draped all the way to MX City....now to today it aint there.....

[artist]

I'm disregarding the BAMM models. All season long they have shown southwest dips at the end of their runs. It has been happening time and time again. Maybe they will eventually be right? lol It is interesting that GFS shows the same thing but its ensemble members almost all disagree.

The BAMM really shouldn't be used for outside the deep tropics, other than for their strength.

[srainhoutx]

Day 7 from HPC:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

Funny how yesterday someone posted the HPC at day 7 and it had a front draped all the way to MX City....now to today it aint there.....

Yep, I did...

[KWT]

Thats the joy of longer range forecasting outside of summer months, everything becomes more tight and in more flux and the models seem to struggle a little more simply because in Autumn the differences that would normally not make much difference in summer suddenly make the world of difference to systems tracks.

[Blown Away]

The models are slowly consolidating in the Gulf of Honduras.

[Saints]

Update on some of the latest "consensus"

Wait, no way, those models cannot be right. They show no catastrophic hurricane impacting anywhere along the U.S. coast line, especially Florida. Something just can't be right.

Folks, I mentioned this earlier today, when most folks on here were talking about...omg...this place, that place, is going to be devastated, BEFORE it was even named....etc.

Get some sleep. Nothing to worry about at this time. If and when a major hurricane develops, that is when everyone needs to be concerned. But not now, with a minimal tropical storm, heading for a slow death over CA. Waaaaaaaay too many variables and factors that can come into play. People forecasting total devastation, this far out is simply irresponsible and unnecessary, IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

Update on some of the latest "consensus"

Wait, no way, those models cannot be right. They show no catastrophic hurricane impacting anywhere along the U.S. coast line, especially Florida. Something just can't be right.

Folks, I mentioned this earlier today, when most folks on here were talking about...omg...this place, that place, is going to be devastated, BEFORE it was even named....etc.

Get some sleep. Nothing to worry about at this time. If and when a major hurricane develops, that is when everyone needs to be concerned. But not now, with a minimal tropical storm, heading for a slow death over CA. Waaaaaaaay too many variables and factors that can come into play. People forecasting total devastation, this far out is simply irresponsible and unnecessary, IMO.

and the fact that many are possibly following the possible storm thats right behind and not this, one of the most confusing setups in recent history

[Florida1118]

Update on some of the latest "consensus"

Wait, no way, those models cannot be right. They show no catastrophic hurricane impacting anywhere along the U.S. coast line, especially Florida. Something just can't be right.

Folks, I mentioned this earlier today, when most folks on here were talking about...omg...this place, that place, is going to be devastated, BEFORE it was even named....etc.

Get some sleep. Nothing to worry about at this time. If and when a major hurricane develops, that is when everyone needs to be concerned. But not now, with a minimal tropical storm, heading for a slow death over CA. Waaaaaaaay too many variables and factors that can come into play. People forecasting total devastation, this far out is simply irresponsible and unnecessary, IMO.

I havent heard anyone scream the sky is falling...but we do need to be concerned to a point. I think it should be noted that it is out there and maybe just check on your supply of batteries at this point. Not many models are saying this dies in CA, some just loop it around in odd fashions.

[Saints]

The models are slowly consolidating in the Gulf of Honduras.

Yes, I think so. Thank goodness! A slooooooow....death! Nice weather for the Gulf coast and SE U.S this weekend and into next week. Enjoy it. We have been and continue to be fortunate this hurricane season.

[HURAKAN]

Gulf of Honduras is over water, not inland

[Florida1118]

The models are slowly consolidating in the Gulf of Honduras.

Yes, I think so. Thank goodness! A slooooooow....death! Nice weather for the Gulf coast and SE U.S this weekend and into next week. Enjoy it. We have been and continue to be fortunate this hurricane season.

Being in the warm water isnt killing it...please remove the IMG tags, we dont need to see the same picture over and over.

[redfish1]

it almost seems like a lot of floridians are wishing this storm onto them

[CDO62]

Wait, no way, those models cannot be right. They show no catastrophic hurricane impacting anywhere along the U.S. coast line, especially Florida. Something just can't be right.

Folks, I mentioned this earlier today, when most folks on here were talking about...omg...this place, that place, is going to be devastated, BEFORE it was even named....etc.

Get some sleep. Nothing to worry about at this time. If and when a major hurricane develops, that is when everyone needs to be concerned. But not now, with a minimal tropical storm, heading for a slow death over CA. Waaaaaaaay too many variables and factors that can come into play. People forecasting total devastation, this far out is simply irresponsible and unnecessary, IMO.

What makes you think everyone one on here is from the US? This storm will affect many people in different areas. Who are you to call the "all clear" for everyone in the US. When the NHC calls it.....Ill listen

[artist]

Update on some of the latest "consensus"

Wait, no way, those models cannot be right. They show no catastrophic hurricane impacting anywhere along the U.S. coast line, especially Florida. Something just can't be right.

Folks, I mentioned this earlier today, when most folks on here were talking about...omg...this place, that place, is going to be devastated, BEFORE it was even named....etc.

Get some sleep. Nothing to worry about at this time. If and when a major hurricane develops, that is when everyone needs to be concerned. But not now, with a minimal tropical storm, heading for a slow death over CA. Waaaaaaaay too many variables and factors that can come into play. People forecasting total devastation, this far out is simply irresponsible and unnecessary, IMO.

would you mind showing me where anyone has forecast total devastation?
And you might not know it, but there are other countries that are also dealing with this. IT is not just about the US>