ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[blp]

Satellite eclipse?

If you notice the last satellite image is from 4:15UTC and we are now at 6:10UTC. It is typical this time of the year and at this time to get the eclipse. I just don't remember the link to see how long it will last.

[BrianD]

^^WeatherGuesser
I've been up for approximately 72hrs working 15hr shifts and one was a double. The last thing I'm worrying about is punctuation. Besides I know my punctuation is perfect when I want it to be, a forum is nowhere to blast people for punctuation or grammar. I am an english major but when you're tired you just don't care. However, I do apologize for not making it a little more clear for you to read

*Sorry for the off-topic response I'm a little cranky tonight and criticism doesn't hit me well when I'm tired.

[caribepr]

Feeling a little sick to my stomach right now. Lucky to have friends watching out for my home/cart/stuff on Culebra and wishing I could be there to help get friends ready.It's hard to not be home.

Oh boy Mj. Lets see that nothing bad occurs not only in Culebra but in the rest of the islands.

Luis, thanks for making that stand out!...of course I'm thinking of all the other islands too...have been in touch with friends on a number of them, where everyone is getting ready just in case...as we always do. Best of preps and luck to all of us, and even more, that none of that is needed....

[blp]

Finally.... 06:15UTC

[blp]

Looking ragged at the moment. Looks like the outflow from Danielle is causing havoc. Look at the flattened north side.

[WeatherGuesser]

Using GoogleEarth

[WeatherGuesser]

A little bigger and with the view positioned a bit further west:

[WeatherGuesser]

And one more in a bit closer:

[Brent]

[Ivanhater]

U.S in the cone...

[WeatherGuesser]

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.




That looks like they're expecting the upgrade just as it passes the islands.

[WeatherGuesser]

U.S in the cone...

If that were to stay on that track past Friday without curving back out, Saturday and Sunday could be interesting on Long Island.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290421 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1221 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

.UPDATE...AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TPC/NHC FORECAST FOR TROPICAL
STORM EARL...CONTINUES TO BRING THE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS (ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE COASTAL WATERS
OF PUERTO RICO) ON MONDAY AS A HURRICANE. THIS LATEST TRACK WAS
AGAIN ADJUSTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

[Gustywind]

Approaching closely the Leewards islands while it continues to improve appearence...

[Gustywind]

Looks a nice band of showers and tstorms should begin to affect the Leewards during the next couple of hours.

[Gustywind]

[jinftl]

Wind Probabilities from the 5am Sunday update by the NHC...St. Maarten and Barbuda are most likely, as of now, to experience the brunt of Earl. See if that changes with future updates.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PONCE 34kt 26%
PONCE 50kt 7%
PONCE 64kt 2%

SAN JUAN 34kt 43%
SAN JUAN 50kt 17%
SAN JUAN 64kt 7%

SAINT THOMAS 34kt 59%
SAINT THOMAS 50kt 30%
SAINT THOMAS 64kt 15%

SAINT CROIX 34kt 43%
SAINT CROIX 50kt 16%
SAINT CROIX 64kt 6%

SAINT MAARTEN 34kt 82%
SAINT MAARTEN 50kt 57%
SAINT MAARTEN 64kt 28%

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34kt 58%
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50kt 25%
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64kt 9%

BARBUDA 34kt 82%
BARBUDA 50kt 55%
BARBUDA 64kt 25%

ANTIGUA 34kt 62%
ANTIGUA 50kt 26%
ANTIGUA 64kt 8%

[Gustywind]

[ColinDelia]

Looks like the shear is starting to relax. "Flatness" is decreasing.

Earl (now)


Earl (3 hours ago)