ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortmax1]

I'm leaning in that direction now, strange as it seems.

Thank you Wxman57.
It is very strange but I can see it as a real possibility also.

[GCANE]

does anyone think the area of upper divergence between the upper low over the DR and the anticyclone from mathew spawns a secondary low?

CMC does on Monday

[Vortmax1]

Latest center fix:

[FLpanhandle91]

Anyone notice a northern jog in recent frames? Common in intense hurricanes, not sure about tropical storms. Is this a change of direction?

[Vortmax1]

Anyone notice a northern jog in recent frames? Common in intense hurricanes, not sure about tropical storms. Is this a change of direction?

It's just bobbbling around a bit...no real change in direction that I can see.

[terrapintransit]

Wow...

[otowntiger]

Matthew does appear to be getting his act together today. Very interesting set up indeed.

[Aric Dunn]

Whats rather interesting is that according to the models this process of matthew fading and nicole forming is going to be a rather quick process. The 12z GFS either redevelops matthew or develops nicole in only 72 hours from right now. Which seems rather fast but if there is of weakening of matthew later tonight and at the same time nicole starts to form from the monsoon trough over the Carrib soon after than it seems at least plausible a scenario like the models are seeing could occur.

[otowntiger]

[quote="terrapintransit"]Wow...

wow is right. Looks pretty impressive in that image. Good thing he doesn't have any more time over water.

[fci]

Whats rather interesting is that according to the models this process of matthew fading and nicole forming is going to be a rather quick process. The 12z GFS either redevelops matthew or develops nicole in only 72 hours from right now. Which seems rather fast but if there is of weakening of matthew later tonight and at the same time nicole starts to form from the monsoon trough over the Carrib soon after than it seems at least plausible a scenario like the models are seeing could occur.

Any historical precedent of this scenario happening?

[Aric Dunn]

Whats rather interesting is that according to the models this process of matthew fading and nicole forming is going to be a rather quick process. The 12z GFS either redevelops matthew or develops nicole in only 72 hours from right now. Which seems rather fast but if there is of weakening of matthew later tonight and at the same time nicole starts to form from the monsoon trough over the Carrib soon after than it seems at least plausible a scenario like the models are seeing could occur.

Any historical precedent of this scenario happening?

not that I can directly relate. but there are a couple similar instances... like with Karl as it moved inland a trough extended northward in the gulf and eventually developed a Low moved inland over texas. also something similar happened in 2005 with I think Alpha ?

well maybe not Alpha.... one of them in 2005 I believe did...

[Typhoon_Willie]

I think that was Wilma and Alpha you are talking about.

[jlauderdal]

Whats rather interesting is that according to the models this process of matthew fading and nicole forming is going to be a rather quick process. The 12z GFS either redevelops matthew or develops nicole in only 72 hours from right now. Which seems rather fast but if there is of weakening of matthew later tonight and at the same time nicole starts to form from the monsoon trough over the Carrib soon after than it seems at least plausible a scenario like the models are seeing could occur.

Any historical precedent of this scenario happening?

not that I can directly relate. but there are a couple similar instances... like with Karl as it moved inland a trough extended northward in the gulf and eventually developed a Low moved inland over texas. also something similar happened in 2005 with I think Alpha ?

well maybe not Alpha.... one of them in 2005 I believe did...

this is more interesting than watching a cat 5 cruise the Caribbean

[GCANE]

Whats rather interesting is that according to the models this process of matthew fading and nicole forming is going to be a rather quick process. The 12z GFS either redevelops matthew or develops nicole in only 72 hours from right now. Which seems rather fast but if there is of weakening of matthew later tonight and at the same time nicole starts to form from the monsoon trough over the Carrib soon after than it seems at least plausible a scenario like the models are seeing could occur.

Any historical precedent of this scenario happening?

Chapter 3 of this paper may elude to this.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/uwaosjournal/Vo ... Lazear.pdf

It discusses the formation of Rita in '05 due to the outflow from Ophelia.

The Dynamic Tropopause Forecast seems to be pointing to the same mechanism.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html

[HURAKAN]

Likely not far from landfall

[HURAKAN]

very deep convection affecting Nicaragua and NE Honduras

[HURAKAN]

RECON is returning home likely indicating that the center is either inland or very close.

[chaser1]

Whats rather interesting is that according to the models this process of matthew fading and nicole forming is going to be a rather quick process. The 12z GFS either redevelops matthew or develops nicole in only 72 hours from right now. Which seems rather fast but if there is of weakening of matthew later tonight and at the same time nicole starts to form from the monsoon trough over the Carrib soon after than it seems at least plausible a scenario like the models are seeing could occur.

Any historical precedent of this scenario happening?

Chapter 3 of this paper may elude to this.

http://www.aos.wisc.edu/uwaosjournal/Vo ... Lazear.pdf

It discusses the formation of Rita in '05 due to the outflow from Ophelia.

The Dynamic Tropopause Forecast seems to be pointing to the same mechanism.

Wow...., after looking at the loop of the Dynamic Tropopause, I'm almost back to thinking that whatever "might" redevelop near Yucatan, might actually more aptly stilll "be" Matthew, all the while Nicole forming from an altogether unique wave farther east ( Central Caribb. )

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html

[HURAKAN]

Matthew and Lisa

[cycloneye]

And what is that South of Hispanola, future Nicole?