ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[perk]

Well I thought a shortwave digging into the northeast us would erode the ridge. Also danielle was supposed to leave a weakness. They don't mention these reasons anymore.

yeah we know...glad to see you jump back on the band wagon after beating the Recurve drum for 3 days....

Careful Rock, KWT will flip Gator back soon.

[pricetag56]

im worried about what the intensity will be near the end of five days. the nhc isnt always accurate with intensity this far out. Whens the last time the east coast was hit by a major hurricane they better be on guard.

[blp]

I guess the trough that the NHC is talking about is the one over eastern Cuba. Any ideas on if that is the one.....

[RL3AO]

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[bvigal]

All I can say is, GOOD flippin' GRIEF!!! Another shift south, so much for all the "reliable" models in "good consensus" etc.

Just finished the 11pm update information, local section update, and a new Markup Map showing wind radii made from google plot of forecast track. (If I post it here it will be gone in the morning when I replace it with one for 5am update, but you can see it on the website.)

If I get in bed now, I can have 4 hrs before time to start the next update. Hopefully, that's where Luis and other neighbors are, getting some sleep while they can. Rest well!

[KWT]

Looking decent though there does appear to be still some northerly impinging on the system, but if te models are to be believed this one should set off to the races in the next 24hrs and deepen decently.

Going to be very 50-50 now as to a land threat, all depends on how quickly the upper trough comes through. Could be a classic close but not quite solution or it could well end up with the trough taking so long to move through it actually hits the east coast...we will see!

[dexterlabio]

Just asking...is there a high chance of this storm passing very close to the US eastern coast, particularly Southern Florida? Earl hitting the Caribbean islands is imminent, I suppose.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Just asking...is there a high chance of this storm passing very close to the US eastern coast, particularly Southern Florida? Earl hitting the Caribbean islands is imminent, I suppose.

This should help give you an idea:

[KWT]

My advice is keep a very close eye n Earl, it may well end up turning out to sea just before becoming a major threat but I'd say best not to chance it in these sorts of patterns, usually they do recurve in time but you do get some that don't manage it, esp if Earl gets further west then progged.

Caribbean Islands going to take a real hit tonight, hope they've got everything sorted!

[paintplaye]

My advice is keep a very close eye n Earl, it may well end up turning out to sea just before becoming a major threat but I'd say best not to chance it in these sorts of patterns, usually they do recurve in time but you do get some that don't manage it, esp if Earl gets further west then progged.

Caribbean Islands going to take a real hit tonight, hope they've got everything sorted!

A couple of days ago we were saying the same thing for the islands and now they are most likely going to get hit. It is going to be a close one that is for sure.

[KWT]

The fact that PR now has a hurricane watch shows how things are still shifting westwards with the turn to the NW not really getting going until 48hrs now and after its torn through the Caribbean.

Hopefully the shear carries on impinging on the system otherwise this one could get stronger in time for the Islands.

[BrianD]

Well It's been since Isabel That Va Beach and OBX Has been hit good, I said in the Danielle thread a while back I had a bad gut feeling about her wanting to visit there, however Maybe I was one off, Earl may Just as well go beach dwelling near the chesapeake and wreak havoc I do not hope this happens but these westward trends are starting to give me the goose pimples for the east coast

[BrianD]

Referring to my last post not many people know of the extremely strong hurricanes that have hit the chesapeake area in the past Such as the one that formed Willoughby spit and 800 acre sand swath that appeared overnight from a massive hurricane that went right up the chesapeake and raised the waters their a ridiculous amount which caused some serious problems Not sure on what size this hurricane was Category wise but it had to be Extremely intense to raise an 800 acre sand swath that didn't exist before ............ Sorry for the off topic post alot of people tend to believe they don't hit past cat3 that far north but i'm pretty sure the one that did that was probably much stronger. ... Back on topic... lol

[emeraldislencguy]

what are the odds of the projected path shifting west on sunday??

[TheDreamTraveler]

what are the odds of the projected path shifting west on sunday??

Judging by the constant shift West, I'd say there's a pretty good chance.

Here's a loop of the NHC's tracks for Earl as they continue to shift West with each update: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/gr ... 5NLW.shtml

[WeatherGuesser]

may Just as well go beach dwelling near the chesapeake and wreak havoc I do not hope this happens but these westward trends are starting to give me the goose pimples for the east coast

Take a deep breath. Try a little punctuation. Makes your post a lot easier to read.

[blp]

Anyone have an idea when the satellite eclipse will be over? Thanks

[WeatherGuesser]

Satellite eclipse?

[TheDreamTraveler]

may Just as well go beach dwelling near the chesapeake and wreak havoc I do not hope this happens but these westward trends are starting to give me the goose pimples for the east coast

Take a deep breath. Try a little punctuation. Makes your post a lot easier to read.

I didn't have a hard time reading their post. Still better than a lot of the grammar I see people use on other sites. For example, KWT makes more errors, but KWT posts more. So maybe that's why. But this is starting to get off topic now...


It's going to be interesting to see how fast Earl can turn into a Major Hurricane. Since that's what a lot of the models want to do, and what the NHC seems to be sold on. But Earl will eventually run into some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic with more favorable conditions. It'll be interesting to watch.