ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

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#1021 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:54 pm

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Re: Re:

#1022 Postby Category 5 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:54 pm

RL3AO wrote:
SootyTern wrote:Curious what the line of building convection to the NW of 'Colin' is about; it seems to be heading right towards the TUTT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Its a trough thats north of Colin.


Which at this point might be its executioner.
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Re: Re:

#1023 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:56 pm

Category 5 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
SootyTern wrote:Curious what the line of building convection to the NW of 'Colin' is about; it seems to be heading right towards the TUTT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Its a trough thats north of Colin.


Which at this point might be its executioner.


FWIW, JB thinks its why its going to strengthen.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1024 Postby StormClouds63 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:58 pm

Should be downgraded to at least TD at next advisory?
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1025 Postby lester » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:59 pm

StormClouds63 wrote:Should be downgraded to at least TD at next advisory?


Best Track leaves it as a Tropical Storm. Could still be downgraded however.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1026 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:03 pm

Wow,look at the speed it's going.

285DEG SPDCUR = 30KT
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1027 Postby Riptide » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:04 pm

Image

That is some serious shear-induced convection. It looks like that pocket of sinking air is going to erode away eventually. The future of Colin looks really interesting because of what the ULL is doing now. Alot of this convection will probably work to weaken the ULL as it slowly moves away. There will definately be a period of shear but I don't think it will be as potent as before.

After the ULL-factor diminishes and the forward speed of Colin decreases in 36 hours, we could see some serious intensification. I think Colin will surprise us.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1028 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow,look at the speed it's going.

285DEG SPDCUR = 30KT


wow, that is fast. Between the speed it's moving and the TULL Shredder, Colin is a gonner......
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1029 Postby lester » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow,look at the speed it's going.

285DEG SPDCUR = 30KT


Wow i don't think i've ever seen a cyclone go THAT fast :eek:
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1030 Postby P.K. » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:10 pm

Using the 12Z and 18Z positions from the BT gives a speed of 32kts over the last 6 hours which is rather fast!
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Re: Re:

#1031 Postby Category 5 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:12 pm

RL3AO wrote:FWIW, JB thinks its why its going to strengthen.


If the LLC keeps outrunning the convection he can toss that out.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1032 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:12 pm

P.K. wrote:Using the 12Z and 18Z positions from the BT gives a speed of 32kts over the last 6 hours which is rather fast!


I used my workstation and GARP to measure a 3-hr movement of 107 miles. That's about 36 mph. it's toast.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1033 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:14 pm

LLC exposed now....hauling butt to the WNW or NW....wont be much left if it keeps this up....TUTT is going to eat it for dinner....Should be downgraded IMO to a TD......
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#1034 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:14 pm

Yeah storm looks horrible.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1035 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:14 pm

I am so confused by this storm today. I do think IF it can survive the next couple of days though, then it could be a problem down the road. The fact it's flying west IMO makes a sharp recurve look less likely as well. It has GOT to slow down though if it wants to live that long however.

Wonder why the models are more aggressive on strengthening today?
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#1036 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:16 pm

Mets, is it possibale for the energy in the trough ahead of it and what's left of Colin to merge?
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1037 Postby Riptide » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:17 pm

ROCK wrote:LLC exposed now....hauling butt to the WNW or NW....wont be much left if it keeps this up....TUTT is going to eat it for dinner....Should be downgraded IMO to a TD......

I am willing to bet that Colin eats the TUTT for dinner. :wink:

If Colin were moving slower, the TUTT wouldn't even be an issue as it is also moving towards the west.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1038 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:18 pm

My question is, why is it moving THAT fast? That speed usually corresponds to either caught up in a mid latitude trough turning extra tropical or a massive high steaming west. I'm not seeing either.

I guess you could blame it on the easterlies, but for it to be moving at 36 mph, that should be caused by a huge strong high...
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1039 Postby Category 5 » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:20 pm

Ivanhater wrote:My question is, why is it moving THAT fast? That speed usually corresponds to either caught up in a mid latitude trough turning extra tropical or a massive high steaming west. I'm not seeing either.

I guess you could blame it on the easterlies, but for it to be moving at 36 mph, that should be caused by a huge strong high...


Where are you getting 36? Advisory says 24.
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Re: ATL : Tropical Storm Colin - DISCUSSION

#1040 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 03, 2010 2:20 pm

Ivanhater wrote:My question is, why is it moving THAT fast? That speed usually corresponds to either caught up in a mid latitude trough turning extra tropical or a massive high steaming west. I'm not seeing either.

I guess you could blame it on the easterlies, but for it to be moving at 36 mph, that should be caused by a huge strong high...



ask and you shall recieve.... :lol:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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