ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Vortex]

I remember John Hope remarking several times over the years that in South Florida just because the first cold front has passed be vigilant as history more times than not has sent hurricanes across the area after the first cold front passage...After reading the below NWS discussion it made me think of those remarks...


NWS MIami:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE
80S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE METRO AREAS
EACH NIGHT. SOME OF THE INTERIOR AREAS COULD EVEN BE CLOSE TO THE
RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSS IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

[Vortex]

1945Z taking on the "S" look textbook of strengthening depressions...



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[cycloneye]

Anticyclone is still not over the system but just to the NE.That is why there is some shear over it.

[KWT]

Looks to me like this probably a code red job now, I've seen these sort of systems really take off in the Caribbean at this time of year, I'd put even odds of this becoming a major hurricane down the line...that may seem bullish for now but if it does develop even with some shear present I think conditions will be good enough once it lifts out a little.

[Evil Jeremy]

I would expect there to be a Special TWO in the next few hours raising the probability of formation to 50%60%, and if trends continue, 80%-90% at 8PM with an upgrade at 11AM, although knowing the NHC they might wait for morning visibles.

[KWT]

I'd go with 70% right now, given the obvious banding that is starting to occur on the western side of the system...its certainly getting there IMO.

[Sanibel]

Organizing quickly now. Maybe that poster talking about Paula wasn't far off.

[Florida1118]

I would expect there to be a Special TWO in the next few hours raising the probability of formation to 50%60%, and if trends continue, 80%-90% at 8PM with an upgrade at 11AM, although knowing the NHC they might wait for morning visibles.

They need to...Very good looking, and everything is in place. Do they not like it if we ask them about a Invests status? i.e. Email? Im assuming they would be irritated with that...

[latitude_20]

Been following surface readings from ships, pressures have definitely dropped in the last 3 hours:

http://sailwx.info/wxobs/pressure.phtml ... radius=500

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sanibel]

I'm hot on this. WNW. 300+


Showing signs of fast development.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[MGC]

30%???? Looks like a TD to me....way better than Otto was when upgraded. Looks to be making a beeline to CA. Somebody call the NHC and wake them up.....MGC

[Florida1118]

How much longer does it have over water?

[Sanibel]

Edit: The Floater's Lat/Lon lines were off again. Never mind. Near 13N-81W

[HURAKAN]

it looks great on visible but infrared shows that the clouds are warming up, an indication that it's not well-developed at the surface

[Florida1118]

it looks great on visible but infrared shows that the clouds are warming up, an indication that it's not well-developed at the surface

Still deserves better than 30% though.

[jconsor]

The main reason this is not a TD and probably will not be until at least Mon is the presence of lots of very dry air nearby from Honduras to the Caymans and into much of the NW Caribbean.
This is preventing deep convection from being persistent. The dry air will eventually be shunted NW as the moist envelope of 98L becomes better defined, but it will be slow process. Sat loops show an elongation and weakening of the convection in the past 3 hours.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

The circulation is well-defined, though a bit elongated SSW-NNE. A ship about 150 miles E of the center has reported sustained winds as high as 30 kt in the past 4 hours:

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=ZCDF4

I expect development by Mon or Tue, and a slow NW/NNW track to a position east of the Yucatan by late next week.

[Sanibel]

They might be calculating that dry air to choke development. I'm of the mind that in October that location should spur surface development not far behind the convection appearance.

[expat2carib]

They might be calculating that dry air to choke development. I'm of the mind that in October that location should spur surface development not far behind the convection appearance.

My guess is that it's the time factor/line that kept it on 30% It started looking good but there is only 30% chance of development within 48 hours. The chance it will develop beyond 48 hours is in my opinion 90%