ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

What is for sure is that Igor will be a big ACE producer. Will it surpass Danielle (21) and Earl (27) ? See the ACE thread at TT for the updates. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=107339&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=160

[Steve H.]

I believe he comes a lot further west than the current forecast track before crossing 25N. The trough in the east US progged to be in the 5 - 6 day period should be pulling away by day 7, and ridging could drive him westerly again after he makes the initial turn to the WNW and NW. I think he will be an interesting one to watch

[wxman57]

Some fascinating climo. I plotted all September storms passing within 65nm of Igor's point of formation from 1851-2009. There were 13 such storms. Here's the breakdown:

3 dissipated shortly after being designated
5 recurved well out to sea
5 struck the U.S.!! (2 of those hit the NE Caribbean)

Of the 5 that made landfall, there was:
1. The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, which was also the only Cat 5 to hit PR
2. The Great 1938 New England Hurricane
3. The 1947 Hurricane that hit SE Florida as a major then New Orleans as a Cat 1
4. 1985's Gloria that struck the NE Caribbean then Long Island.
5. 1989's Hugo that devastated SC/NC

Those are some big names in the past. "I" storms often seem to be quite strong hurricanes that cause a lot of problems. Will this be Igor's first and only time the name is used? We'll see!

[HURAKAN]

What is for sure is that Igor will be a big ACE producer. Will it surpass Danielle (21) and Earl (27) ? See the ACE thread at TT for the ACE updates.

Depends how strong Igor gets.

[x-y-no]

3 dissipated shortly after being designated
5 recurved well out to sea
5 struck the U.S.!! (2 of those hit the NE Caribbean)

Wow ... that's a truly surprising stat. I would have guessed maybe 2 out of 10 at the most.

[thetruesms]

That is not exactly the map I had intuitively created in my head. Definitely some big names in there

[HURAKAN]

With the ninth storm named on Sept 8 it's hard to imagine not getting to at least 15-16 named storms at this point.

well next week is the peak and its all downhill from there based on climo so really its not that hard to imagine although they have the itchy trigger finger over there this season

Every season is different but in 2000, Issac formed on September 22nd, and we had 15 named storms and a subtropical that was missed.

In 1969, Inga formed on September 20th and the season had 18 storms!

[ColinDelia]

Some real classics in there, wxman57

[jaxfladude]

Some fascinating climo. I plotted all September storms passing within 65nm of Igor's point of formation from 1851-2009. There were 13 such storms. Here's the breakdown:

3 dissipated shortly after being designated
5 recurved well out to sea
5 struck the U.S.!! (2 of those hit the NE Caribbean)

Of the 5 that made landfall, there was:
1. The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, which was also the only Cat 5 to hit PR
2. The Great 1938 New England Hurricane
3. The 1947 Hurricane that hit Miami as a major then New Orleans as a Cat 1
4. 1985's Gloria that struck the NE Caribbean then Long Island.
5. 1989's Hugo that devastated SC/NC

Those are some big names in the past. "I" storms often seem to be quite strong hurricanes that cause a lot of problems. Will this be Igor's first and only time the name is used? We'll see!

IMAGE

A nasty list there.....this one will have to be watched...already for the CV islands....wow

[curtadams]

In addition to the ASCAT pass, the threat to the southern CV islands (a rare event) also indicated a prompt upgrade.

[Ivanhater]

Those who are already screaming recurve need only to review the 00z Euro and the 06 GFS.

[AussieMark]

Those who are already screaming recurve need only to review the 00z Euro and the 06 GFS.

can you post it?

[Vortmax1]

Geesh Wxman57!
Thanks I think for the reminder.

[southerngale]

Those who are already screaming recurve need only to review the 00z Euro and the 06 GFS.

can you post it?

Igor models thread

[Frank2]

It's not a matter of "screaming recurve" - statistics show that a hurricane that forms that early is much more likely to recurve, especially if any degree of a trough forms to the north...

Frank

[SFLcane]

It's not a matter of "screaming recurve" - statistics show that a hurricane that forms that early is much more likely to recurve, especially if any degree of a trough forms to the north...

Frank

I agree frank anything forming this far east should recurve pretty easily.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Those who are already screaming recurve need only to review the 00z Euro and the 06 GFS.

can you post it?

Looks like a pretty strong high is forecast to be around the NE US and build east into the ATL. If that comes comes to fruition it would essentially block Igor from move any more north and turn him west north of the Antilles.

[cycloneye]

The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, which was also the only Cat 5 to hit PR

That one caused over 300 deaths here in Puerto Rico.

[Ivanhater]

It's not a matter of "screaming recurve" - statistics show that a hurricane that forms that early is much more likely to recurve, especially if any degree of a trough forms to the north...

Frank

Not true at all. Did you see the stats wxman posted. 5 recurved, 5 hit the U.S.

[SoupBone]

It's not a matter of "screaming recurve" - statistics show that a hurricane that forms that early is much more likely to recurve, especially if any degree of a trough forms to the north...

Frank

Not true at all. Did you see the stats wxman posted. 5 recurved, 5 hit the U.S.

I think he's referring to the fact that it's stronger earlier and that it will feel any weakness and head out to sea. I don't think he's referring to location...although I may have misread it.