ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

W.Caribbean is plenty of space for a system to get going, Alex effectivly went from a sheared out wave to a 60-65mph TS in the W.Caribbean.

It is a westerly runner but what tends to happen is they fire up convection then as they get closer to land the combo of frictional tightening occuring and also a larger influw channel as SA curves away.

Not going to have time probably to become too potent but I think to rule it out is a little hasty at the moment, I think its got a 50-50 chance of being a NS by landfall.

I really hope we don't see Danielle out of this one. Just what we need, another 40mph TS.

So, you say that what we need is a 160 mph hurricane. Downcasting is as bad as -removed-.

[srainhoutx]

A tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone no matter how they 'look' or how sheared they are. NHC does not upgrade a thunderstorm complex.

[ConvergenceZone]

This just might be the year of tropical storms ....
Not a bad thing though.....

[HurrMark]

This just might be the year of tropical storms ....
Not a bad thing though.....

I went 16/6/4...although I was banking on a Gulf/Caribbean year...

[hurricaneCW]

W.Caribbean is plenty of space for a system to get going, Alex effectivly went from a sheared out wave to a 60-65mph TS in the W.Caribbean.

It is a westerly runner but what tends to happen is they fire up convection then as they get closer to land the combo of frictional tightening occuring and also a larger influw channel as SA curves away.

Not going to have time probably to become too potent but I think to rule it out is a little hasty at the moment, I think its got a 50-50 chance of being a NS by landfall.

I really hope we don't see Danielle out of this one. Just what we need, another 40mph TS.

So, you say that what we need is a 160 mph hurricane. Downcasting is as bad as -removed-.

I'd much rather see a well organized hurricane than a pathetic 2009 style TS. One that doesn't impact anyone of course.

[TheBurn]

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised if there are solid TS winds in there.

[x-y-no]

I'd much rather see a well organized hurricane than a pathetic 2009 style TS. One that doesn't impact anyone of course.

Well once you're in the Caribbean, impacting someone is pretty much a given.

[cperez1594]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/100804161229_an.gif

It might be me but I can see either a MLC or a LLC forming. Check it out

[I-wall]

Anyone else notice a small eddy near 76.5 and 14.5? Looks like it's trying to wrap up.

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Discussion
Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
In addition to keeping an eye on Colin, I am also closely watching a tropical wave that is located in the central Caribbean, which has been designated Invest 92-L. Development seems unlikely until it reaches the western Caribbean on Thursday. The global models aren’t overly robust with significant development and the latest SHIPS intensity guidance forecasts intensification to a 70 mph tropical storm before coming ashore in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

What is interesting and should be noted is that the hurricane track models forecast this system to emerge in the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico during the day Sunday with what looks like a second landfall in eastern or northeastern Mexico early next week. Now, the global model guidance keep this system weak and do not forecast that it will emerge in the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico.

I’m not totally ready to buy into the idea that this will gain as much latitude as the hurricane track models are forecasting. I just think high pressure over the southern United States is too strong and this would keep the system down in the Caribbean with a landfall in Honduras or Belize on Saturday.

Regardless, I will keep a close on this system over the next few days to see what happens.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning.

[srainhoutx]

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[alanstover]

I'd much rather see a well organized hurricane than a pathetic 2009 style TS. One that doesn't impact anyone of course.

Well once you're in the Caribbean, impacting someone is pretty much a given.

Thanks for making that note, x-y-no, I was thinking the same thing. If it does head over towards CA that will only mean disaster, with all the rain we´ve been having already.

On the other hand, I share the excitement of watching a strong system develop just like the rest of you do.

[Wx_Warrior]

KFDM_met hinted at the high pressure yesterday.

[Dean4Storms]

I see outflows racing away from the convection in all directions which is usually indicative of no LLC. Give it another day folks!

[Sanibel]

Looks like it is trying to form.

[NOLA2010]

But it also looks like it is headed due west into Central America. I am not sure if this one will have enough time to develop now.

[HURAKAN]

The vorticity is a lot stronger and NW of the previous position



3 hours ago

[HURAKAN]

could be on its way

[HURAKAN]

greater spin