ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[AJC3]

Tony, you think is still early to say anything about any threat to the NE Caribbean?

Luis...of course, anytime you have and invest or area of disturbed wx east of the LA, it's something to keep an eye on. The synoptic pattern seems to favor "something" moving through the islands many days down the road. Other than that, being several days away, and until something actually forms, it's impossible to say what that threat would be.

"WMUWIR40W"

[cycloneye]

Aric, good observations there. It would also be interesting to see data from bouys in that area.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

[Florida1118]

Heres Dr. Masters blog update.
The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.

[CourierPR]

Climatology is just a tool and it gives us an idea what to expect in August.[quote][/quote]

Well stated. Climatology is based on general weather history. It is not, as some seem to suggest, a river of air that steers storms

[tolakram]

Looks like new convection starting to fire behind the earlier convection and where there might be a low level circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[Aquawind]

31.5W 8.5N possible..with some deeper convection on the NW quad or something like that.

[cycloneye]

Tony, you think is still early to say anything about any threat to the NE Caribbean?

Luis...of course, anytime you have and invest or area of disturbed wx east of the LA, it's something to keep an eye on. The synoptic pattern seems to favor "something" moving through the islands many days down the road. Other than that, being several days away, and until something actually forms, it's impossible to say what that threat would be.

"WMUWIR40W"

Thank you for the answer. Yes, there will be plenty of time to see what the system may do, but one thing is certain, all indications are that the lull in the Atlantic will end very soon.

[Aquawind]

As they said on the ITCZ discussion earlier, is now officially a tropical wave at the 00z surface analysis. Interesting to note the kink northward of the ITCZ west of 50W up to 14N.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_00Z.gif

90L may have to ride that kink in the ITCZ before seperation...and will have a nice moisture tap after.

[Florida1118]

convection Really died down. I think 20% is still going to be our %.

[ROCK]

intersting to see Dr. Masters update that totally goes against his fill in earlier today....They need to have a meeting and get on the some page....

[cheezyWXguy]

convection Really died down. I think 20% is still going to be our %.

Actually the convection is just starting to pop again...

[Florida1118]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Sanibel]

This could just be the dry phase where the wave reaches the lingering nadir of the Atlantic SAL area. It could refire or diminish. Could have enough to seriously rebloom convection once it gets past.



.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the diurnal max is starting to do its thing...convection popping up all around the apparent circulation. Tomorrow may be an interesting day.

[Fego]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0545 UTC 8.2N 31.6W T1.0/1.0 90L
30/0000 UTC 8.0N 31.5W T1.0/1.0 90L
29/1745 UTC 7.6N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 90L

Looks like is starting to gain some latitude.

[JonathanBelles]

Reading the models and current steering charts, I would bring the forecast track farther south (closer to the islands) and bring intensity down by quite a bit. 90L is extremely disorganized right now, and the 20% by the nhc might be an overstatement of the possibilities.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

A pretty messy setup still thats for sure, not a classic attempt of development.

I suspect given this one is taking its time plus the La Nina tendancy to underdo upper high pressure cells will let this one be further south...

[cycloneye]

First visible.



RGB



Rainbow

[Nimbus]

The wave looks a little sharper this morning even without a lot of intense convection.
Everyone seems to be jumping on WXman57's track into the NE caribbean islands.
The models with rapid intensification into a major hurricane are probably too fast.

Evolution of the Atlantic ridge should be interesting I think the models that show a weakness are just going with general statistical probabilities. These TUTTS seem to pop up in less than a day without the models predicting them. We can hope for a TUTT north of the big islands.

[KWT]

Not all that impressed with the convection considering its about Dmax down there, development is still a very long way away yet, probably still 3-5 days away IMO.