ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Ron, that is the 18z

[ROCK]

Ahh, the 'ol will the ridge hold or break down debate..is it hurricane season?

I will say though, both the GFS and Euro weaken the high when this in the gulf as wxman57 alluded to. (He is liking Mid gulf coast right now). As always everyone should be on alert this early...

no debate from me on ridge or no ridge.... I call it the way I see it...going with climo on this one and lack of organization...then when the model consensus comes in I will go with that...right now we have nothing short of pinning the tail on the donkey....

[cycloneye]

What has happened to GFDL and HWRF that have not runned since 06z?

[srainhoutx]

Some thought the 18Z runs would have updated. Internal problem?

[Dean4Storms]

NWS Tally AFD this afternoon has the Atlantic Ridging weakening over the weekend.



LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN THE NRN STREAM COMMENCES WITH A TROUGH OVER WRN MOST
STATES...BROAD RIDGING FROM WRN PLAINS EWD TO WEAK TROFFING OVER ERN
STATES. TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SRN STREAM PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...LOW PWATS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ESE AND STRENGTHENS
BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FIRST HALF
OF EXTENDED. THIS LEADS TO A GRADUAL WARM UP AS IT PEAKS IN STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS SAT INTO MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF APPROACHES THE AREA. BY END OF EXTENDED
PERIOD...WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVES NOW ACROSS NE CONUS WHICH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS DOMINANT SRN RIDGE ESE BACK INTO ATLC WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING RIDGE AND STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

where about would this system be located at this time??

It would be in the SE Gulf by this weekend.

[Ivanhater]

Ships continue to inch stronger

SHIP 54KTS 67KTS 79KTS 84KTS

[MiamiHurricanes10]

00z SHIPS takes 97L to a category 2 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 0, 190N, 658W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 12, 198N, 681W, 31, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 24, 203N, 703W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 36, 205N, 725W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 48, 206N, 744W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 60, 206N, 764W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 72, 210N, 781W, 67, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 84, 214N, 799W, 72, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 96, 221N, 818W, 79, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 108, 229N, 835W, 82, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072000, 03, SHIP, 120, 239N, 851W, 84, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[ROCK]

the EURO tonight will be telling.....not sure I will be staying up for that though....

[redfish1]

the EURO tonight will be telling.....not sure I will be staying up for that though....

what time will that be?

[Ivanhater]

the EURO tonight will be telling.....not sure I will be staying up for that though....

You lie

[srainhoutx]

What? No 'night crew' ROCK...

[Ivanhater]

the EURO tonight will be telling.....not sure I will be staying up for that though....

what time will that be?

Start rolling around 1:30 central

[redfish1]

the EURO tonight will be telling.....not sure I will be staying up for that though....

what time will that be?

Start rolling around 1:30 central

any ideas on where it will end up?

[Ivanhater]

All dependent on strength where the Euro sends it so it's anyone's guess.

[ROCK]

Start rolling around 1:30 central[/quote]

any ideas on where it will end up?[/quote]

anywhere from NMEX to FL is my prediction right now..... nope..not a clue Redfish....we wait for a center to initialize on then we watch the models react....

[ROCK]

What? No 'night crew' ROCK...

Yes yes...I lie....

[Ikester]

If I was a bettin' man, which I am, LOL, then based on past trends, the EURO seems to like the idea of a strong ridge. But every situation is different. I'm willing to bet central to western gulf with 'Bonnie'.

[clfenwi]

Three things with that SHIPS output which tie into its assumption of the BAMM forecast track. The affects of that:

-It takes the system into a sizable pool of high heat content that it would not hit otherwise. (Caribbean heat content)

- By running the storm south it takes the storm through a lighter shear regime than it may experience otherwise.

- It runs the storm through Cuba. Once you have that land interaction, you have to turn to Decay Ships/land interaction, which drops the intensity 30-40 knots. (00Z ships output)

[boca]

Stronger 97L becomes the more poeward it would move unless the high builds like forecast it it moves N of due west.

[ROCK]

Three things with that SHIPS output which tie into its assumption of the BAMM forecast track. The affects of that:

-It takes the system into a sizable pool of high heat content that it would not hit otherwise. (Caribbean heat content)

- By running the storm south it takes the storm through a lighter shear regime than it may experience otherwise.

- It runs the storm through Cuba. Once you have that land interaction, you have to turn to Decay Ships/land interaction, which drops the intensity 30-40 knots. (00Z ships output)

running the spine of Cuba will disrupt any core it has time to develope...which I dont think it will have that time.....but anything at the low levels would be toast with mountains of Cuba....Cuba did a number on IKE if I remember correctly even though it stayed offshore for a time...