SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM GELANE (16S)

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 210900 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 017A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GELANE) WARNING NR 017A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 61.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 61.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.8S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.8S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED MORE RAPIDLY THAN
EXPECTED AND IS NOW FULLY-EXPOSED WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED 160 NM EAST. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED,
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS WELL-DEFINED.
BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE 21/06Z POSITION WAS RELOCATED
50 NM NORTHWEST OF THE ORIGINAL WARNING POSITION OF 21.6S 62.0E.
TC 16S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KNOTS FROM KNES AND
PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THIS WARNING WAS AMENDED DUE
TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LLCC AND THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECAST CHANGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z.//
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[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 271
WTIO30 FMEE 211824
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/12/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 (EX-GELANE)
2.A POSITION 2010/02/21 AT 1800 UTC :
20.2S / 60.5E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/02/22 06 UTC: 19.9S/59.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/02/22 18 UTC: 20.3S/58.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2010/02/23 06 UTC: 21.0S/57.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2010/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5S/56.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2010/02/24 06 UTC: 21.8S/54.7E DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.0.
DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CONVECTION HAS
LITERRALY BEEN BLOWN AWAY DURING THE MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS COMPLETLY EXPOSED FAR FROM THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED VERY RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS LITTLE SIZE.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED
TO
RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
SOUTHWESTWARDS
FILLING UP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LITTLE RIDGE IN THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.=
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[HURAKAN]

Poof!