ATL : INVEST 94L

[CrazyC83]

All it takes is a bit of shear relaxing and Ida could be the storm of the season, just as we thought we were home free...

That would be two replacement names in a row becoming big storms (Fabian->Fred, Isabel->Ida). Also, as a whole, the I storms this decade have been quite mean...

[cycloneye]

HPC Caribbean discussion:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

AT LOW LEVELS...THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS-CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA
TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE BAHAMAS-CUBA-YUCATAN PENINSULA
THROUGH 36 HRS. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE/CONFLUENT
ASYMPTOTE THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NORTHEAST
HONDURAS THROUGH 24-36 HRS...TO ALSO WEAKEN THROUGH 48-54 HRS AS
IT PULLS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP POLAR TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AN
INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 82W/83W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE TROUGH MOVES TO EASTERN
NICARAGUA BY 18-24 HRS...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS-BELIZE/QUINTANA ROO
MEXICO BY 48 HRS. THIS TROUGH...IN INTERACTION WITH THE
ITCZ...WILL SUSTAIN THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF AN 850 HPA LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF
NICARAGUA/NORTH OF COSTA RICA. THE TPC IS MONITORING THIS FEATURE
FOR RISK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

[jlauderdal]

There is a 94L models thread.

Never understood the need for 2 separate discussion threads. This is where we're discussing the potential future of the disturbance. Are we supposed to post the model images there then talk about them here?

We haved done separated threads since storm2k came to life called the main thread for members to discuss all about the system and the models thread to post the runs from the different models.We do it this way for the Atlantic systems as information about the models gets lost when a main thread gets many replies.When a models thread is up,is more easy for the members to find the model runs in one place rather than in a mix of other discussions.I can ask the admins to look into it to see if we can forget about model threads.

check it out and discuss with admins, also putting the pacific systems in a completely different area would really make site navigation easier, i can only imagine the difference in visitors to atlantic vs pacific

BTW, ortts model of choice is GFS( Good For S**T)

[wxman57]

Here's a current surface plot with satellite overlay. Any weak rotation/vorticity is very near the coast of Nicaragua now. Interesting that we haven't had any new model guidance come out after the 12Z runs. It probably was a bit early to declare an invest, as there's not much development chance for another 3-4 days.

[Derek Ortt]

NOGAPS keeps the low over land and shows no development.

Still probably looking at just a 30% chance of anything forming at all from this area. May run MM5 on it just to see tonight

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis adds another low in NW Caribbean.The SW Caribbean low remains offshore.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

[fci]

There is a 94L models thread.

Why not just post model data in the models thread and have all the discussion in this forum.

So there is no duplication yet easy access to the models without scrolling through page after page when the board gets active

Just my $.02

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 120 hours develops it.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS liking development. In NW Caribbean at 150 hours

[Ivanhater]

150 hrs

[artist]

[Ivanhater]

174 hours...seems to deepen. has moved nw but slowly. I'd bet this run sits it there before the front sweeps it away

[gatorcane]

Yikes:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS goes crazy with this thing now, major cane in the GOM (albeit way out at 324 hours).

Ivanhater, check it out:

[Ivanhater]

uh oh

[artist]

Yikes:

so what cat is this showing? I can't find my link.

[cycloneye]

This is the 72 hour forecast from TAFB and it still has the low in the SW Caribbean on Friday.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[CrazyC83]

That forecast seems unlikely for late October though...I think it will either get trapped in the Caribbean or get pushed out via Cuba, the Bahamas or Florida - if it develops.

[lonelymike]

18Z GFS goes crazy with this thing now, major cane in the GOM (albeit way out at 324 hours).

Ivanhater, check it out:

For entertainment purposes only. After all it is the GFS model .

[cycloneye]

artist,here is the link to the GFS runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml