WPAC: TS MORAKOT (0908/09W/PAGASA: KIKO)

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WPAC: TS MORAKOT (0908/09W/PAGASA: KIKO)

#1 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:09 pm

JMA and PAGASA both list this as a depression, JTWC puts it in fair state...

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WWJP25 RJTD 030000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1012 HPA
AT 40N 168E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 19.6N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA
AT 18.3N 116.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 138E 36N 141E
42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 34N 180E 37N 160E 33N
141E 35N 138E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 40N 155E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 54N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 48N 162E ESE 20 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 31N 168E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42N 156E TO 41N 160E 40N 165E 40N 168E 38N 172E
36N 178E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=




Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "KIKO"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 03 August 2009

The Low Pressure Area East Northeast of Luzon has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named"KIKO".

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 1,070 km East of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.3°N,133.2°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 07 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:

Tuesday Morning:
870 km East of Basco, Batanes

Wednesday Morning:
560 km East of Basco, Batanes

Thursady Morning:
570 km Norhteast of Basco, Batanes

No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

This disturbance is expected to enhance the Souhtwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains ove Luzon and Western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concern are advised to take approriate actions and watch for the next bulleting to be issued at 11 PM today
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#2 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:09 pm

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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 03, 2009 5:57 am

Image

Not looking very good.
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Mon Aug 03, 2009 7:21 am

JMA looking to possibly upgrade to a TS... JTWC still maintains an invest at fair status...


WWJP25 RJTD 030600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 39N 171E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 20.0N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 21.5N 132.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA
AT 19.3N 115.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 142E 47N 152E
55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 33N 180E 37N 166E 37N 154E 32N 140E 35N
140E 41N 142E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 40N 156E EAST SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 59N 176E SSE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 41N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 47N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 30N 165E WEST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 159E TO 39N 165E 39N 171E 36N 177E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 03, 2009 7:54 am

Image

Very broad system
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#6 Postby senorpepr » Mon Aug 03, 2009 10:46 am

FKPQ30 RJTD 031200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090803/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: NIL
NR: 2
PSN: N2020 E13255
MOV: SLW
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 03/1800Z N2025 E13255
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/0000Z N2035 E13250
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/0600Z N2100 E13240
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 04/1200Z N2135 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090803/1800Z =
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Re: WPAC: TD (98W/PAGASA: KIKO)

#7 Postby Iune » Mon Aug 03, 2009 10:52 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 20.3N 132.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 21.6N 132.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: TD (98W/PAGASA: KIKO)

#8 Postby Iune » Mon Aug 03, 2009 10:53 am

FXPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 031200UTC 20.3N 132.9E
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 21.0N 133.8E -003HPA -002KT
T=12 21.5N 133.9E -002HPA 000KT
T=18 21.7N 134.3E -006HPA -001KT
T=24 22.4N 133.7E -005HPA -002KT
T=30 22.8N 132.9E -007HPA -001KT
T=36 23.1N 132.1E -008HPA +001KT
T=42 23.3N 131.6E -011HPA +003KT
T=48 24.0N 131.0E -011HPA +001KT
T=54 24.5N 129.5E -014HPA +003KT
T=60 24.8N 128.3E -014HPA +002KT
T=66 24.9N 127.4E -016HPA +003KT
T=72 25.2N 126.3E -016HPA +008KT
T=78 25.1N 125.5E -020HPA +010KT
T=84 25.6N 124.7E -021HPA +010KT=
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Re: WPAC: TD (98W/PAGASA: KIKO)

#9 Postby Iune » Mon Aug 03, 2009 10:54 am

FKPQ30 RJTD 031200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090803/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: NIL
NR: 2
PSN: N2020 E13255
MOV: SLW
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 03/1800Z N2025 E13255
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 04/0000Z N2035 E13250
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/0600Z N2100 E13240
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 04/1200Z N2135 E13230
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20090803/1800Z =
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#10 Postby senorpepr » Mon Aug 03, 2009 11:15 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 21.0N 135.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 22.0N 133.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 03, 2009 1:39 pm

Image

Convection continues to increase
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#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 03, 2009 1:58 pm

Just saw a 12km WRF run... makes this into a Tip like system, with ANOTHER Tip like system to the east
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#13 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:41 pm

Say thanks to the monsoonal gyre. It's a fairly natural progression to have a large, sprawling TC form at the center of a mature gyre. This one is somewhat different though - the gyre split into two pieces, one of which moved west and formed into TC Goni, and one of which has become this Invest. ECMWF wants to develop some binary or even ternary interaction between Goni, this Invest, and an area to the east. Would be pretty cool to watch that, wouldn't you say?
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#14 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:05 pm

as I said, we may have two Tip-like cyclones in about 4 days in the WPAC
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Re: WPAC: TD (98W/PAGASA: KIKO)

#15 Postby P.K. » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:13 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0908 MORAKOT (0908) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 21.2N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 22.6N 133.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 051800UTC 24.2N 131.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 061800UTC 25.8N 128.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:21 pm

the pressure will be a LOT lower than 980mb in 72 hours. 880mb may even be closer to reality

I'll go even farther, this has the potential to be one fo the worst cyclones ever in the world. Check what the Canadian is doing with this (I wont show the ARW run I saw... as it may be a bit over the top... it has hurricane force winds extending more than 600NM from the center and the same for one behind this)
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Re:

#17 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:37 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the pressure will be a LOT lower than 980mb in 72 hours. 880mb may even be closer to reality

I'll go even farther, this has the potential to be one fo the worst cyclones ever in the world. Check what the Canadian is doing with this (I wont show the ARW run I saw... as it may be a bit over the top... it has hurricane force winds extending more than 600NM from the center and the same for one behind this)

Disagree with this. First of all the big WPAC storms tend to start out small and then enlarge themselves as they mature. Cyclones that start out bigger tend to gulp in too much dry air too early. Also, the size itself argues against a RIC so common with major hurricanes. While that doesn't necessarily mean a strong cyclone can't form, I don't think a STY Tip-2 is in the realm of possibility. Second of all, talking about this being "one of the worst cyclones" is a bit overdone. The bathymetry and topography of the basin doesn't support an epic storm surge. Finally, from what I observed with Ike last year, model depictions of deep storms mean they see the presence of a TC - rather than the strength of a TC. Models can resolve big sprawling gyres better than they can resolve small midget microcanes, and most likely a Cat 1 strength gigantocane will appear stronger on a model depiction than a Charley/Tracy/Carlos. As a result, the model depictions for this would look monstrous, perhaps even inflated.
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Re:

#18 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the pressure will be a LOT lower than 980mb in 72 hours. 880mb may even be closer to reality

I'll go even farther, this has the potential to be one fo the worst cyclones ever in the world. Check what the Canadian is doing with this (I wont show the ARW run I saw... as it may be a bit over the top... it has hurricane force winds extending more than 600NM from the center and the same for one behind this)


Do you have a link for that? Also, I wonder how far hurricane force winds extended in Tip? I know Tip was large. I see WPAC is picking up. If a Tip like system did hit a major poplation area, it would be horrendous.
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Re: Re:

#19 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:49 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:the pressure will be a LOT lower than 980mb in 72 hours. 880mb may even be closer to reality

I'll go even farther, this has the potential to be one fo the worst cyclones ever in the world. Check what the Canadian is doing with this (I wont show the ARW run I saw... as it may be a bit over the top... it has hurricane force winds extending more than 600NM from the center and the same for one behind this)

Disagree with this. First of all the big WPAC storms tend to start out small and then enlarge themselves as they mature. Cyclones that start out bigger tend to gulp in too much dry air too early. Also, the size itself argues against a RIC so common with major hurricanes. While that doesn't necessarily mean a strong cyclone can't form, I don't think a STY Tip-2 is in the realm of possibility. Second of all, talking about this being "one of the worst cyclones" is a bit overdone. The bathymetry and topography of the basin doesn't support an epic storm surge. Finally, from what I observed with Ike last year, model depictions of deep storms mean they see the presence of a TC - rather than the strength of a TC. Models can resolve big sprawling gyres better than they can resolve small midget microcanes, and most likely a Cat 1 strength gigantocane will appear stronger on a model depiction than a Charley/Tracy/Carlos. As a result, the model depictions for this would look monstrous, perhaps even inflated.


see the latest models that I have seen, along with some globals and you'll have a totally different outlook. Besides, I am looking at ARW output that is showing hurricane force winds more than 600NM from the center. The winds alone will make this horrific, even with 0 surge, which is beyond impossible. The winds are greater than 120KT in the model IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND THE CENTER.
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Re: Re:

#20 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:51 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:
see the latest models that I have seen, along with some globals and you'll have a totally different outlook. Besides, I am looking at ARW output that is showing hurricane force winds more than 600NM from the center. The winds alone will make this horrific, even with 0 surge, which is beyond impossible. The winds are greater than 120KT in the model IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND THE CENTER.


A large hurricane will produce larger waves and certainly large storm surge. If that type of storm went over New Orleans, the storm surge could well be over 40 feet!
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