SIO: DONGO - Extratropical: Discussion

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JAN 2009 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 18:01:33 S Lon : 67:52:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 995.8mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +6.5C Cloud Region Temp : -39.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 18:49:11 S Lon: 67:40:11 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

159
WTIO30 FMEE 100018

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/10 AT 0000 UTC :
18.1S / 67.7E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 36 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 180 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/10 12 UTC: 19.4S/67.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/01/11 00 UTC: 21.1S/68.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 23.7S/69.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 26.1S/69.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 28.5S/69.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 30.6S/70.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION IS GOING ON ORGANIZING IN CURVED
BAND, AND DATA FROM BUOY 16588 CONFIRM THE DEEPENING. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BUILT IN THE SOUTH AS POLAR INFLOW IS INCREASING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE 12Z RUN. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER FAVOURABLE AND IS IMPROVING: THE POLEWARD INFLOW IS
TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS TO BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THE
NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR YET MODERATE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE
WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. IN FACT THE SYSTEM HAS A 36 HOURS PERIOD FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE
A DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS AT THE END OF THE
FORCAST, WITH COOLER SST AND STRONGER WINDSHEAR.

THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES, THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, AHAED OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE EAST.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

36 kt. Weird value for an intensity. Must have some kind of reading.

[Crostorm]

TPXS10 PGTW 100005

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 17.9S

D. 66.7E

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .50 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2114Z 17.7S 67.1E AMSR


UEHARA

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 002
WTXS31 PGTW 100300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DONGO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.7S 67.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 67.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.7S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.8S 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.6S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.9S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 67.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 885
WTIO30 FMEE 100625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)
2.A POSITION 2009/01/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 66.9E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 270 SO: 180 NO: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/10 18 UTC: 19.3S/66.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/01/11 06 UTC: 21.4S/67.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 24.1S/68.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 27.9S/69.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 31.1S/71.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 32.1S/72.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
LLCC HAS BEEN RELOCATED NORTHWESTWARDS THAN PREVIOULY ANALYSED THANKS
TO
LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND WINDS HAS BEEN CALIBRATED THANKS
TO
LAST ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT SWATHS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BUILT IN THE SOUTH AS POLAR INFLOW IS INCREASING.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER FAVOURABLE AND IS IMPROVING: THE POLEWARD LOW
LEVEL
INFLOW IS TEMPORARILY REBUILD THANKS TO BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES, THE NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR YET MODERATE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE STRENGTHEN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH
LOCATED IN THE WE
ST OF THE SYSTEM. IN FACT THE SYSTEM HAS A 36 HOURS PERIOD FOR
STRENGTHENING BEFORE A DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS
AT
THE END OF THE FORCAST, WITH COOLER SST AND STRONGER VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR.
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDERGOING
MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS
EAST
AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AHAED OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.=
NNNN

[Chacor]

HURAKAN, please use http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TIO30.FMEE for the WTIO30 bulletin. Easier to read than the one you're using.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, please use http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TIO30.FMEE for the WTIO30 bulletin. Easier to read than the one you're using.

Thanks for the website. I was looking for it in the previous pages and didn't find it. I'll bookmark it.

[Crostorm]

396
WTIO30 FMEE 101220

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 67.6E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 180 SE: 270 SO: 180 NO: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/11 00 UTC: 20.5S/68.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 22.7S/68.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 25.4S/69.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 28.3S/70.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 30.6S/71.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 32.5S/73.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
AT 0730Z VISIBLE METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED VORTEX
CENTERED NEAR 18.1S/67.4E, SIGN THAT THE EXPECTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS
RECURVING TRAJECTORY HAS BEGAN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ALONG AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 5S/73E TO 21S/80E (SEE ECMWF NWP 600HPA FLOW) AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOESN'T SHOW SIGNIFICATIVE IMPROVMENT SINCE 10/0000Z.
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT 10/0216Z QUIKSCAT SWATH (NO WINDS MORE THAN 30KT)
AND THE BUOY 16588 (995.2HPA AT 10/0800Z AND 993.6HPA AT 10/0400Z) ,
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT T=CI=2.5+ WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AT 35KT
AND MSLP AT 994HPA.
AS NEW LIGHT ON THIS ELEMENT (CLOUD PATTERN, SCATTEROMETRY AND BUOY),
DONGO STILL SHOWS CHARACTERISTICS OF AN HYBRID LOW BETWEEN CLASSICAL
TROPICAL LOW AND MONSSON ONE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, GOOD LOW
LEVEL TRADE WINDS INFLOW (EQUATORWARD INFLOW HAS WEAKENED ON THIS
SOUTHWARDS TRACK), WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR , STRONG UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW RELATED TO A WESTERLY POLEWARD JET AND SST UP TO 26.5S DOWN TO
27S.
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO STRENGHTEN WITHIN THE
NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, DONGO STILL HAS A WINDOW OF 36 HOURS TO
REACH THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE.


.

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Interesting look to it. Really big hollow centre.

[Crostorm]

163
WTIO30 FMEE 101827

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/5/20082009
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/10 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 67.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/11 06 UTC: 21.7S/68.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/01/11 18 UTC: 24.4S/69.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/01/12 06 UTC: 27.9S/70.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2009/01/12 18 UTC: 30.3S/71.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/13 06 UTC: 32.5S/72.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/13 18 UTC: 34.1S/75.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0

SINCE AROUND 8 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION KEEP ON ORGANIZING AROUND THE LLCC.
SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING AND THE QUICKSCAT SWATH OF 13:23Z NOW SHOWS SOME
35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE EXPECTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS RECURVING TRAJECTORY HAS BEGAN (CURRENT
MOTION AND SPEED: 150o/8KT) UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ALONG AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 5S/73E TO 21S/80E (SEE ECMWF NWP 600HPA FLOW) AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, GOOD LOW
LEVEL TRADE WINDS INFLOW (EQUATORWARD INFLOW HAS WEAKENED ON THIS
SOUTHWARDS TRACK), WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR , STRONG UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW RELATED TO A WESTERLY POLEWARD JET AND SST UP TO 26.5S DOWN TO
27S.
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO STRENGHTEN WITHIN THE
NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, DONGO STILL HAS A WINDOW OF 24 TO 30 HOURS
TO REACH THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[Crostorm]

013
WTIO30 FMEE 110026

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/5/20082009
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DONGO)

2.A POSITION 2009/01/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7S / 68.3E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 330 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/01/11 12 UTC: 23.3S/69.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2009/01/12 00 UTC: 25.9S/70.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2009/01/12 12 UTC: 29.6S/71.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2009/01/13 00 UTC: 31.8S/72.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2009/01/13 12 UTC: 32.9S/74.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2009/01/14 00 UTC: 34.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5

OVERALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED DURING THE WHOLE NIGHT WITH AN ONGOING
CURVED BAND PATTERN. LATEST ANALYSIS IN EIR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WRAP
OF .90 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL THAT YIELDS TO A DT OF 3.5. ANALYSIS FROM PGTW
AND KNES CONFIRM THIS INTENSITY.

NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS CAME FROM THE 12Z RUN. AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT DISPERSION FOR THE SPEED.
PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GENERAL GENERAL BUT CLOSER TO THE LATEST
ECMWF TRACK. IT IS JUST SLIGHTLY EASTWARDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
..

SYSTEM IS STILL TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS (CURRENT MOTION AND SPEED:
155o/11KT) UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THIS STEERING FLOW
WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BUT ARE
STILL FORECAST TO DETERIORATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST. DONGO HAS STILL A WINDOW OF 18 TO 24
HOURS TO REACH ITS MAXIMAL INTENSITY.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]