Pressure bomber.
Entrained from ocean and a large area over Australia.
Redevelopment predictions outdone.
Billy is doing what would be a south dip in the northern hemisphere.
Hot area.
NW Australia: BILLY - Tropical Cyclone: Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: NW Australia: BILLY - Severe Tropical Cyclone: Discussion
Up to 95kts now.
AXAU01 APRF 241849
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 24/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 117.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [28 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [283 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 948 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0600: 17.3S 116.4E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 953
+24: 25/1800: 16.8S 115.1E: 075 [140]: 075 [140]: 967
+36: 26/0600: 16.2S 113.9E: 110 [200]: 060 [110]: 978
+48: 26/1800: 15.6S 112.8E: 140 [260]: 050 [095]: 985
+60: 27/0600: 15.6S 111.5E: 190 [345]: 045 [085]: 988
+72: 27/1800: 16.1S 110.4E: 235 [435]: 040 [075]: 991
REMARKS:
At 18UTC Billy was located well to the north of Port Hedland moving steadily
west northwest. Billy has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours, with
Dvorak
estimates increasing by 2.0T in 24 hours. Raw DT numbers reached 6.5 on the
0930Z and 1030Z images based on a W surround with CMG/DG Eadj but more recently
a time averaged DT number of 5.5 is attained using the eye pattern.
Billy is likely to be at peak intensity over the next 6 hours then increasing
shear will affect the system thereafter and once the system moves west of 115E -
on 26 December - the oceanic heat content becomes less favourable. The system is
then expected to weaken rapidly given its small size.
Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining
well off the Pilbara coast.
While it is unlikely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast,
several ensemble members of two generally skilful NWP models indicate that a
southwesterly or southerly motion is still possible, so cautionary community
warnings are being maintained until the risk further diminshes.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
AXAU01 APRF 241849
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 24/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 117.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [28 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [283 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots [175 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots [250 km/h]
Central Pressure: 948 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0600: 17.3S 116.4E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 953
+24: 25/1800: 16.8S 115.1E: 075 [140]: 075 [140]: 967
+36: 26/0600: 16.2S 113.9E: 110 [200]: 060 [110]: 978
+48: 26/1800: 15.6S 112.8E: 140 [260]: 050 [095]: 985
+60: 27/0600: 15.6S 111.5E: 190 [345]: 045 [085]: 988
+72: 27/1800: 16.1S 110.4E: 235 [435]: 040 [075]: 991
REMARKS:
At 18UTC Billy was located well to the north of Port Hedland moving steadily
west northwest. Billy has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours, with
Dvorak
estimates increasing by 2.0T in 24 hours. Raw DT numbers reached 6.5 on the
0930Z and 1030Z images based on a W surround with CMG/DG Eadj but more recently
a time averaged DT number of 5.5 is attained using the eye pattern.
Billy is likely to be at peak intensity over the next 6 hours then increasing
shear will affect the system thereafter and once the system moves west of 115E -
on 26 December - the oceanic heat content becomes less favourable. The system is
then expected to weaken rapidly given its small size.
Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining
well off the Pilbara coast.
While it is unlikely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast,
several ensemble members of two generally skilful NWP models indicate that a
southwesterly or southerly motion is still possible, so cautionary community
warnings are being maintained until the risk further diminshes.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 57
Issued at 3:45 am WDT on Thursday, 25 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Port Hedland to
Mardie.
The Cyclone WARNING from Pardoo to Port Hedland has been cancelled.
At 3:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be
310 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
365 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system located well to the north of
Port Hedland and is moving steadily on a west northwesterly track.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Port Hedland and
Mardie during today only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal
rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more
southwesterly track.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 17.6 degrees South 117.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 948 hectoPascals
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
surrounding communities should take precautions.
People in communities between Port Hedland and Mardie should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 7:00 am WDT Thursday 25 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Not common to go north.
Issued at 3:45 am WDT on Thursday, 25 December 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Port Hedland to
Mardie.
The Cyclone WARNING from Pardoo to Port Hedland has been cancelled.
At 3:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy was estimated to be
310 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and
365 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system located well to the north of
Port Hedland and is moving steadily on a west northwesterly track.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Port Hedland and
Mardie during today only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal
rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more
southwesterly track.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 17.6 degrees South 117.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 948 hectoPascals
FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from Pardoo to Port Hedland and
surrounding communities should take precautions.
People in communities between Port Hedland and Mardie should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 7:00 am WDT Thursday 25 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Not common to go north.
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AXAU01 APRF 250702
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0701 UTC 25/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 116.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [28 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [284 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 953 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1800: 16.8S 115.4E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 953
+24: 26/0600: 16.4S 114.3E: 075 [140]: 080 [150]: 962
+36: 26/1800: 16.0S 113.2E: 110 [200]: 070 [130]: 970
+48: 27/0600: 16.0S 112.1E: 140 [260]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 27/1800: 16.2S 111.0E: 190 [345]: 055 [100]: 982
+72: 28/0600: 16.5S 109.9E: 235 [435]: 045 [085]: 988
REMARKS:
Billy was located by radar and satellite imagery well to the north of Karratha
moving steadily
to the west northwest. Recent imagery shows a symmetric system with indications
of a double eye wall. Intensity estimates have oscillated in the past 12 hours
or so following the period of intensification in the previous 24 hours. Dvorak
DT/FT/CI=5.5 based on eye pattern - Black surround 5.5 with no eye adjustment
[DG/B].
Billy is likely to continue on its west northwest track well off the Pilbara
coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. A change to a more
southerly track is not expected and the threat of a coastal impact has passed.
Billy may remain at current intensity under a low shear environment, however a
slow to moderate weakening is then expected particularly when the system moves
over lower sea surface temperatures west of 115E on 26 December. It is possible
that the system may remain at cyclone intensity through to early next week over
open waters.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0701 UTC 25/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 116.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [28 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [284 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 953 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1800: 16.8S 115.4E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 953
+24: 26/0600: 16.4S 114.3E: 075 [140]: 080 [150]: 962
+36: 26/1800: 16.0S 113.2E: 110 [200]: 070 [130]: 970
+48: 27/0600: 16.0S 112.1E: 140 [260]: 060 [110]: 978
+60: 27/1800: 16.2S 111.0E: 190 [345]: 055 [100]: 982
+72: 28/0600: 16.5S 109.9E: 235 [435]: 045 [085]: 988
REMARKS:
Billy was located by radar and satellite imagery well to the north of Karratha
moving steadily
to the west northwest. Recent imagery shows a symmetric system with indications
of a double eye wall. Intensity estimates have oscillated in the past 12 hours
or so following the period of intensification in the previous 24 hours. Dvorak
DT/FT/CI=5.5 based on eye pattern - Black surround 5.5 with no eye adjustment
[DG/B].
Billy is likely to continue on its west northwest track well off the Pilbara
coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. A change to a more
southerly track is not expected and the threat of a coastal impact has passed.
Billy may remain at current intensity under a low shear environment, however a
slow to moderate weakening is then expected particularly when the system moves
over lower sea surface temperatures west of 115E on 26 December. It is possible
that the system may remain at cyclone intensity through to early next week over
open waters.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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AXAU01 APRF 251251
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1251 UTC 25/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 115.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [301 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 951 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0000: 16.2S 114.6E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 956
+24: 26/1200: 15.8S 113.6E: 080 [150]: 075 [140]: 964
+36: 27/0000: 15.6S 112.5E: 110 [210]: 070 [130]: 968
+48: 27/1200: 15.8S 111.7E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 979
+60: 28/0000: 16.3S 110.8E: 190 [355]: 050 [095]: 983
+72: 28/1200: 17.0S 109.9E: 240 [445]: 045 [085]: 986
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily west northwest track. The cloud pattern has
shown some weakening in the in the last six hours, although it remains quite
symmetrical. Dvorak DT/FT=5.0 over the last two images, with a LG surround and
B/[DG|MG] Eadj. CI is held at 5.5.
Billy is likely to continue on its west northwest track for another 36 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, before a weakeness in the
ridge may encourage a southwesterly track that will keep the system moving away
from land. Shear is not forecast to increase dramatically but even a modest
increase may impact on the system, particularly as it begins to move over
slightly cooler waters from tomorrow onwards. However it is likely that the
system will retain TC intensity through the weekend and into Monday.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1251 UTC 25/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 115.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [301 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 951 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0000: 16.2S 114.6E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 956
+24: 26/1200: 15.8S 113.6E: 080 [150]: 075 [140]: 964
+36: 27/0000: 15.6S 112.5E: 110 [210]: 070 [130]: 968
+48: 27/1200: 15.8S 111.7E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 979
+60: 28/0000: 16.3S 110.8E: 190 [355]: 050 [095]: 983
+72: 28/1200: 17.0S 109.9E: 240 [445]: 045 [085]: 986
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily west northwest track. The cloud pattern has
shown some weakening in the in the last six hours, although it remains quite
symmetrical. Dvorak DT/FT=5.0 over the last two images, with a LG surround and
B/[DG|MG] Eadj. CI is held at 5.5.
Billy is likely to continue on its west northwest track for another 36 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, before a weakeness in the
ridge may encourage a southwesterly track that will keep the system moving away
from land. Shear is not forecast to increase dramatically but even a modest
increase may impact on the system, particularly as it begins to move over
slightly cooler waters from tomorrow onwards. However it is likely that the
system will retain TC intensity through the weekend and into Monday.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1853 UTC 25/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 115.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [300 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0600: 16.0S 114.1E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 960
+24: 26/1800: 15.7S 113.1E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 968
+36: 27/0600: 15.7S 112.1E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 27/1800: 16.0S 111.3E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 983
+60: 28/0600: 16.8S 110.5E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 986
+72: 28/1800: 17.3S 109.3E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 989
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily west northwest. The cloud pattern has shown
some weakening in the last six hours. Dvorak DT/FT=4.5, CI is at 5.0.
Billy is likely to continue on its west northwest track for another 30 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, before a weakeness in the
ridge may encourage a southwesterly track. Shear is not forecast to increase
dramatically but even a modest increase may impact on the system, particularly
as it begins to move over slightly cooler waters west of 115E. However it is
likely that the system will retain TC intensity through the weekend and into
Monday.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1853 UTC 25/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 115.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [300 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm [240 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0600: 16.0S 114.1E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 960
+24: 26/1800: 15.7S 113.1E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 968
+36: 27/0600: 15.7S 112.1E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 27/1800: 16.0S 111.3E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 983
+60: 28/0600: 16.8S 110.5E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 986
+72: 28/1800: 17.3S 109.3E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 989
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily west northwest. The cloud pattern has shown
some weakening in the last six hours. Dvorak DT/FT=4.5, CI is at 5.0.
Billy is likely to continue on its west northwest track for another 30 hours
under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, before a weakeness in the
ridge may encourage a southwesterly track. Shear is not forecast to increase
dramatically but even a modest increase may impact on the system, particularly
as it begins to move over slightly cooler waters west of 115E. However it is
likely that the system will retain TC intensity through the weekend and into
Monday.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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AXAU01 APRF 260109
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0108 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 114.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [298 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1200: 15.8S 113.7E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 960
+24: 27/0000: 15.5S 112.7E: 080 [150]: 075 [140]: 964
+36: 27/1200: 15.6S 111.9E: 110 [210]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 28/0000: 16.0S 111.0E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 979
+60: 28/1200: 16.7S 110.2E: 190 [355]: 050 [095]: 983
+72: 29/0000: 17.6S 109.1E: 240 [445]: 045 [085]: 987
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily west northwest away from the mainland under the
ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Recent IR imagery shows
varying degrees of a ragged eye pattern. Dvorak DT numbers have varied between
4.5-5.0, though final DT/FT maintained at 5.0 based on eye surround by Black
less 0.5 for LB/B eye adjustment, also consistent with embedded centre in Black
[5.0].
Some weakening is evident under moderate NE shear with the SSMIS 25/2130UTC
microwave image showing a weakness in the convection on the NE side.
The WNW track is likely to continue for the next 24 hours until a weakness in
the ridge allows a more SW to WSW track, before a new ridge redevelops a
westerly track in the longer term.
Further gradual weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly
cooler sea temperatures particularly from 72 hours onwards. It is likely that
the system will retain TC intensity into next week over open waters.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0108 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 114.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [298 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1200: 15.8S 113.7E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 960
+24: 27/0000: 15.5S 112.7E: 080 [150]: 075 [140]: 964
+36: 27/1200: 15.6S 111.9E: 110 [210]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 28/0000: 16.0S 111.0E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 979
+60: 28/1200: 16.7S 110.2E: 190 [355]: 050 [095]: 983
+72: 29/0000: 17.6S 109.1E: 240 [445]: 045 [085]: 987
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily west northwest away from the mainland under the
ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Recent IR imagery shows
varying degrees of a ragged eye pattern. Dvorak DT numbers have varied between
4.5-5.0, though final DT/FT maintained at 5.0 based on eye surround by Black
less 0.5 for LB/B eye adjustment, also consistent with embedded centre in Black
[5.0].
Some weakening is evident under moderate NE shear with the SSMIS 25/2130UTC
microwave image showing a weakness in the convection on the NE side.
The WNW track is likely to continue for the next 24 hours until a weakness in
the ridge allows a more SW to WSW track, before a new ridge redevelops a
westerly track in the longer term.
Further gradual weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly
cooler sea temperatures particularly from 72 hours onwards. It is likely that
the system will retain TC intensity into next week over open waters.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: NW Australia: BILLY - Severe Tropical Cyclone: Discussion
Good show Billy. No people damage that I know of, intesifying while moving offshore.
Perhaps the southern hemisphere systems should be shown upside down with the equator at the bottom of the screen to make it more familiar to northern hemisphere movements. Poleward upward.
Perhaps the southern hemisphere systems should be shown upside down with the equator at the bottom of the screen to make it more familiar to northern hemisphere movements. Poleward upward.
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Category 5
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Re: NW Australia: BILLY - Severe Tropical Cyclone: Discussion
Sanibel wrote: Perhaps the southern hemisphere systems should be shown upside down with the equator at the bottom of the screen to make it more familiar to northern hemisphere movements. Poleward upward.
Or perhaps people should use common sense and realize it's the opposite hemisphere.
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: NW Australia: BILLY - Severe Tropical Cyclone: Discussion
Sanibel wrote:Good show Billy. No people damage that I know of, intesifying while moving offshore.
Perhaps the southern hemisphere systems should be shown upside down with the equator at the bottom of the screen to make it more familiar to northern hemisphere movements. Poleward upward.
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AXAU01 APRF 260712
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0711 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 114.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [310 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1800: 15.2S 113.3E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 964
+24: 27/0600: 15.4S 112.3E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 27/1800: 15.8S 111.5E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 28/0600: 16.7S 110.5E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 983
+60: 28/1800: 17.3S 109.5E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 986
+72: 29/0600: 18.2S 108.1E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily to the northwest away from the mainland under
the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Position based
primarily on microwave fixes [eg 0240UTC TRMM 37GHz]. An eye is no longer
apparent on IR imagery though Dvorak DT numbers remain at 5.0 based on embedded
centre pattern [Black]. However, FT biased to MET/Pat. 4.5 given the known bias
of embedded centre pattern. CI held at 5.0.
Some weakening is evident under moderate NE shear with microwave imagery showing
a weakness in the convection on the NE side.
The current WNW to NW track is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so
until a weakness in the ridge allows a more SW to WSW track. Some model guidance
suggests a stronger recurvature to the SSW although this may depend on the
system being more intense than what is forecast.
Further gradual weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly
cooler sea temperatures, though it is likely that the system will retain TC
intensity into next week over open waters.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0711 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 114.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [310 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1800: 15.2S 113.3E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 964
+24: 27/0600: 15.4S 112.3E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 27/1800: 15.8S 111.5E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 28/0600: 16.7S 110.5E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 983
+60: 28/1800: 17.3S 109.5E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 986
+72: 29/0600: 18.2S 108.1E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily to the northwest away from the mainland under
the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Position based
primarily on microwave fixes [eg 0240UTC TRMM 37GHz]. An eye is no longer
apparent on IR imagery though Dvorak DT numbers remain at 5.0 based on embedded
centre pattern [Black]. However, FT biased to MET/Pat. 4.5 given the known bias
of embedded centre pattern. CI held at 5.0.
Some weakening is evident under moderate NE shear with microwave imagery showing
a weakness in the convection on the NE side.
The current WNW to NW track is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so
until a weakness in the ridge allows a more SW to WSW track. Some model guidance
suggests a stronger recurvature to the SSW although this may depend on the
system being more intense than what is forecast.
Further gradual weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly
cooler sea temperatures, though it is likely that the system will retain TC
intensity into next week over open waters.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: NW Australia: BILLY - Severe Tropical Cyclone: Discussion
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 017
WTXS32 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.1S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.1S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 113.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BILLY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR,
MARGINALLY SUSTAINABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LESS THAN
OPTIMAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY REFLECTS
A STEADY WEAKENING WITHIN THE CONFINES OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS,
WHILE THE CURRENT POSITION RELIES HEAVILY ON A 261238Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL THEN REORIENT AS THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES EASTWARD
TOWARDS PERTH, AUSTRALIA, FORCING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 2 DAYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND POOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 113.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [296 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0000: 15.3S 112.9E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 974
+24: 27/1200: 15.8S 112.2E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 980
+36: 28/0000: 16.2S 111.3E: 110 [210]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 28/1200: 16.9S 110.4E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 987
+60: 29/0000: 17.7S 109.1E: 190 [355]: 035 [065]: 990
+72: 29/1200: 18.2S 107.3E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 994
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily to the west northwest away from the mainland
under the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. An approaching
short wave mid-level trough should weaken the ridge and allow a southwesterly
track to prevail during Saturday.
DT has been consistently 4.0 over the last 4 images based on EMBD Centre with
fixes based on microwave passes. CI is held at 4.5. Bulk shear has reached
around 20 knots and the system is showing marked signs of weakening with deep
convection now limited to west of the system centre.
Further weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea
temperatures, with the only mitigating factor being the possibility of a period
of enhanced upper divergence to the south as the short wave trough approaches.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1304 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 113.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [296 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0000: 15.3S 112.9E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 974
+24: 27/1200: 15.8S 112.2E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 980
+36: 28/0000: 16.2S 111.3E: 110 [210]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 28/1200: 16.9S 110.4E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 987
+60: 29/0000: 17.7S 109.1E: 190 [355]: 035 [065]: 990
+72: 29/1200: 18.2S 107.3E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 994
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily to the west northwest away from the mainland
under the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. An approaching
short wave mid-level trough should weaken the ridge and allow a southwesterly
track to prevail during Saturday.
DT has been consistently 4.0 over the last 4 images based on EMBD Centre with
fixes based on microwave passes. CI is held at 4.5. Bulk shear has reached
around 20 knots and the system is showing marked signs of weakening with deep
convection now limited to west of the system centre.
Further weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea
temperatures, with the only mitigating factor being the possibility of a period
of enhanced upper divergence to the south as the short wave trough approaches.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 113.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [290 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 977 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0600: 15.6S 112.6E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 981
+24: 27/1800: 16.0S 111.8E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 984
+36: 28/0600: 16.6S 111.0E: 110 [210]: 040 [075]: 987
+48: 28/1800: 17.3S 109.9E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 990
+60: 29/0600: 18.0S 108.3E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 29/1800: 18.6S 106.5E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 994
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily to the west northwest away from the mainland
under the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. An approaching
short wave mid-level trough should weaken the ridge and allow a southwesterly
track to prevail during Saturday.
The system is showing marked signs of weakening with deep convection now limited
to west of the system centre.
Further weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea
temperatures.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 26/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 113.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [46 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [290 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 977 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [46 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0600: 15.6S 112.6E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 981
+24: 27/1800: 16.0S 111.8E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 984
+36: 28/0600: 16.6S 111.0E: 110 [210]: 040 [075]: 987
+48: 28/1800: 17.3S 109.9E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 990
+60: 29/0600: 18.0S 108.3E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 29/1800: 18.6S 106.5E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 994
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily to the west northwest away from the mainland
under the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. An approaching
short wave mid-level trough should weaken the ridge and allow a southwesterly
track to prevail during Saturday.
The system is showing marked signs of weakening with deep convection now limited
to west of the system centre.
Further weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea
temperatures.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 27/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 113.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [305 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1200: 15.2S 112.6E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 28/0000: 15.5S 111.9E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 990
+36: 28/1200: 16.1S 111.0E: 110 [210]: 040 [075]: 990
+48: 29/0000: 16.4S 109.7E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 990
+60: 29/1200: 16.8S 108.4E: 190 [355]: 035 [065]: 992
+72: 30/0000: 16.9S 106.8E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 995
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily on a northwest away from the mainland under the
ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. An approaching short wave
mid-level trough should weaken the ridge and allow a southwesterly track to
prevail in the next 24 hours.
Persisting moderate NE shear of about 20 knots continues to weaken the system
with deep convection confined to western quadrants about a well defined low
level circulation centre. Dvorak based on shear pattern within 0.5degree of
convection DT=3.0, CI held higher at marginal 4.0 biased because of Quickscat,
although CI=3.5 is also a plausible result.
Further weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea
temperatures. Given that the shear may ease in the 24-72 hour timeframe it is
possible that the system will continue to result in gales in at least western
quadrants through this 72 hour time frame.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0106 UTC 27/12/2008
Name: Billy
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 113.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [37 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [305 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [19 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm [205 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1200: 15.2S 112.6E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 28/0000: 15.5S 111.9E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 990
+36: 28/1200: 16.1S 111.0E: 110 [210]: 040 [075]: 990
+48: 29/0000: 16.4S 109.7E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 990
+60: 29/1200: 16.8S 108.4E: 190 [355]: 035 [065]: 992
+72: 30/0000: 16.9S 106.8E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 995
REMARKS:
Billy continues to move steadily on a northwest away from the mainland under the
ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. An approaching short wave
mid-level trough should weaken the ridge and allow a southwesterly track to
prevail in the next 24 hours.
Persisting moderate NE shear of about 20 knots continues to weaken the system
with deep convection confined to western quadrants about a well defined low
level circulation centre. Dvorak based on shear pattern within 0.5degree of
convection DT=3.0, CI held higher at marginal 4.0 biased because of Quickscat,
although CI=3.5 is also a plausible result.
Further weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea
temperatures. Given that the shear may ease in the 24-72 hour timeframe it is
possible that the system will continue to result in gales in at least western
quadrants through this 72 hour time frame.
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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