ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Wx_Warrior]

OT: Its the storm behind it that has GOM written in its directions.

[Derek Ortt]

one other thing, GFS is probably too slow initially. This could be closer to 43-44W not the ~41 the GFS has it at in 48 hours

[jasons2k]

OT: Its the storm behind it that has GOM written in its directions.

If that 500mb chart doesn't change, this one might be first.

[Stormsfury]

Why did NHC did not classified this as a TD at 11 PM? It looks very impressive with convection on top of the center.

The burst of convection is relatively new, and it is sustaining quite well and now with cloud tops cooling approaching -80º. There still is some light easterly shear present, but should this latest strong burst of convection sustain for another 6 hours, an upgrade has to be issued. (Which sometime on Saturday I believe that will occur).

[Brent]

Miami:



Panama City:

[gatorcane]

Direct hit to Florida Keys with impact to Miami-Ft.Lauderdale (OKay that is good, means will be safe if it is pegging us this far out):

[ROCK]

SFL then into GOM then up into the FL panhandle.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml



I would say the trend as of right now suggests a non recurving storm....

[cycloneye]

one other thing, GFS is probably too slow initially. This could be closer to 43-44W not the ~41 the GFS has it at in 48 hours

And that is why the ECMWF recurves as is slow.

[meteorologyman]

This is sad, these storms have impickable timing. school (k-12) starts pretty close to the same timeframe when these storms make landfall... that is if it makes landfall on FL
My college class starts on aug 31st.

[Air Force Met]

Why did NHC did not classified this as a TD at 11 PM? It looks very impressive with convection on top of the center.

The burst of convection is relatively new, and it is sustaining quite well and now with cloud tops cooling approaching -80º. There still is some light easterly shear present, but should this latest strong burst of convection sustain for another 6 hours, an upgrade has to be issued. (Which sometime on Saturday I believe that will occur).

Looks like the low center is now cozy underneath the convection....

[cycloneye]

Special advisory or they will wait until 5 AM?

[wxman57]

Ok, still awake. 00Z GFS takes it right across southern Florida 3 days behind what will be Ana then toward the mid Gulf Coast. So south Florida could be hit by a TS, maybe a hurricane then 3 days later get hit by a big and powerful hurricane. Oh, and the GFS has one a few days behind 90L, too, heading in the same direction.

[Scorpion]

Ok, still awake. 00Z GFS takes it right across southern Florida 3 days behind what will be Ana then toward the mid Gulf Coast. So south Florida could be hit by a TS, maybe a hurricane then 3 days later get hit by a big and powerful hurricane. Oh, and the GFS has one a few days behind 90L, too, heading in the same direction.

Hmm.. exciting days ahead

[JonathanBelles]

Special advisory or they will wait until 5 AM?

I'd be surprised if it happened twice in one night. It also doesnt look like a TD to me. Still a bit off centered. I could certainly see it happening by 5am though.

[meteorologyman]

IF Florida does takes a double hitter there could be some major flooding problems

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[Stormsfury]

Why did NHC did not classified this as a TD at 11 PM? It looks very impressive with convection on top of the center.

The burst of convection is relatively new, and it is sustaining quite well and now with cloud tops cooling approaching -80º. There still is some light easterly shear present, but should this latest strong burst of convection sustain for another 6 hours, an upgrade has to be issued. (Which sometime on Saturday I believe that will occur).

Looks like the low center is now cozy underneath the convection....

Oh, I wholeheartedly agree that it is. I think with 90L not having been a depression already, it's a wait to see if this recent burst of convection does persist (which there certainly is enough to classify). To answer Luis's question above, if the upgrade comes, it will likely be held off until 5 am should 90L continue to look this healthy by the 5 am issuance time.

[gatorcane]

Ok, still awake. 00Z GFS takes it right across southern Florida 3 days behind what will be Ana then toward the mid Gulf Coast. So south Florida could be hit by a TS, maybe a hurricane then 3 days later get hit by a big and powerful hurricane. Oh, and the GFS has one a few days behind 90L, too, heading in the same direction.

Hmm.. exciting days ahead

Yeah I can't believe the models are bringing in multiple systems into Florida, one after the other like some kind of training effect or something. It's like 2004 but even worse if it pans out -- and really the places that got impacted in 2004 could be impacted here again. Certainly the models will change. We still have plenty of time for things to change.

[bigGbear]

Looks like it could be landfall of two different systems - one east
coast Florida and one in Panhandle. Otherwise, what happened to
the second storm?

[Air Force Met]

Special advisory or they will wait until 5 AM?

I'd be surprised if it happened twice in one night. It also doesnt look like a TD to me. Still a bit off centered. I could certainly see it happening by 5am though.

They won't issue a special...there is no reason...

But its a TD...there is a center...sustained deep convection...and the center is now tucked well underneath the deep convection.