ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[HouTXmetro]

What are the chances of witnessing Fujiwhara with these two storms?

Its possible if they get a little closer and stronger. They need to be about 15 degrees apart or closer...and right now they are about that distance from each other.

This is one reason I have been discussing a little further south track with our customers. I think it will eventually come into play. Maybe only a little...but enough to keep TD2 on track towards the islands.

If I understand Fujiwhara correct TD2 would somewhat slow while sorta pulling 90L on a more Southern track?

[Derek Ortt]

an alternative scenario would be for this large system to absorb the smaller weaker TD 2

[HouTXmetro]

an alternative scenario would be for this large system to absorb the smaller weaker TD 2

Right, I'm not sure which scenario is more likely.

[ROCK]

What are the chances of witnessing Fujiwhara with these two storms?

Its possible if they get a little closer and stronger. They need to be about 15 degrees apart or closer...and right now they are about that distance from each other.

This is one reason I have been discussing a little further south track with our customers. I think it will eventually come into play. Maybe only a little...but enough to keep TD2 on track towards the islands.

I was thinking further west myself just by looking at the recent guidance....The GFS is all but abandoning the recurve option. The EURO is the only hold out. I bet it changes its tune tonight.

BTW- Nice to see you around AFM....been since IKE....seems a long time ago...

[wxman57]

an alternative scenario would be for this large system to absorb the smaller weaker TD 2

Or the outflow from the developing larger storm could disrupt the outflow from TD 2 and cause weakening.

[Typhoon_Willie]

From north to south I would say it is about the size of the state of Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

had I have had to give a forecast tonight, it would have been 95KT for Leewards and 105 in Carib

[Evil Jeremy]

had I have had to give a forecast tonight, it would have been 95KT for Leewards and 105 in Carib

What would of your track been like? Where do you see this in 5 days?

[sponger]

Its good to hear from everyone! Like old friends coming together to give there 2 cents worth.
STK has the best 2 cents around. Lets put on our game face and see what the week brings us.

[Air Force Met]

an alternative scenario would be for this large system to absorb the smaller weaker TD 2

Or the outflow from the developing larger storm could disrupt the outflow from TD 2 and cause weakening.

Think the outflow idea is more possible than absorption. The systems are 900 miles apart...and I don't see 90L in any hurry to catch up to #2.

They may be too far apart even for the outflow to be inhibitive.

[wzrgirl1]

An interesting 7-10 days coming to say the least. I have a feeling come Tuesday or Wednesday that this board will be lighting up. Hopefully both storms will dissipate but doubtful.

[Derek Ortt]

had I have had to give a forecast tonight, it would have been 95KT for Leewards and 105 in Carib

What would of your track been like? Where do you see this in 5 days?

read my post again. I gave the track

[cycloneye]

Why did NHC did not classified this as a TD at 11 PM? It looks very impressive with convection on top of the center.

[Scorpion]

Seriously night and day compared to earlier.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't get the NHC hesitation on this one. This should be a TD right now. At this point its likely to organize with each passing hour and the model support is very, very consistent --- just upgrade it now and show the cone, that way those in those land areas can see the general projected path and start to at least think about going over preparation plans. Even if it does not strike, better safe than sorry. I expect Ana by tomorrow night and at the latest Sunday here. No doubt those in the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin islands need to be checking their supplies this weekend.

[boca]

90L should of been upgraded it looks better by the hour I think by 5am well have TD 3.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[wzrgirl1]

With ex TD-2 in a possible regeneration stage, I am confused as to which storm I should be paying closer attention to. The models are suggesting 90L will be larger and stronger but ex TD-2 is closer. I guess it would be a good idea to pay attention to both. To think that a week ago we were bored.

[Air Force Met]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't get the NHC hesitation on this one. This should be a TD right now. At this point its likely to organize with each passing hour and the model support is very, very consistent --- just upgrade it now and show the cone, that way those in those land areas can see the general projected path and start to at least think about going over preparation plans. Even if it does not strike, better safe than sorry. I expect Ana by tomorrow night and at the latest Sunday here. No doubt those in the Leewards, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin islands need to be checking their supplies this weekend.

See the thread on Td#2 as to who is working the desk...and you will have your answer.

[gatorcane]

Already read through that thread (Avila right)?