ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[MWatkins]

To me, the impressive feature is how much moisture is streaming toward Ida from the Caribbean. It seems like everything is getting pulled toward the cyclone, and there are very active convective bands "feeding" the center from the warm waters off shore even if they aren't exactly over the center.

I have little doubt that this system will emerge intact. And looking at the motion over the last 4 hours I am seeing due north now.

MW

[Sanibel]

Gradient winds starting to form all the way up here.


This storm is talking. It already had sparse convection and turned into a bursting hurricane no one expected in 24 hours.

[Sanibel]

It's already sticking its feet back into the Caribbean in the form of that red IR burst north of Honduras:

[gatorcane]

To me, the impressive feature is how much moisture is streaming toward Ida from the Caribbean. It seems like everything is getting pulled toward the cyclone, and there are very active convective bands "feeding" the center from the warm waters off shore even if they aren't exactly over the center.

I have little doubt that this system will emerge intact. And looking at the motion over the last 4 hours I am seeing due north now.

MW

I'm really curious what is going to happen when the center gets back over water. I could really see it blow up pretty quickly, especially alot of convection blowing up on the eastern side of the center feeding in from the SW Caribbean...and with some light to maybe moderate SW shear that should exist in the NW Car. I do think the NHC is being conservative on their tropical storm intensity through the NW Carib but if I were them its probably a good call to make at this point until we see what emerges from Honduras.

If you look at the EPAC invest, its getting sucked into this thing as well. There is alot of moisture all around the NW Caribbean that Ida should tap. Going to be a very interesting next several days as this thing emerges into the NW Car.

[Sanibel]

Shows how screwy the models can be. CMC loses Ida and brings an EPAC crossover system into the GOM.

[scogor]

Okay, for us non-mets on the board living on the west coast of Florida--what factors are most crucial in determining (a) whether Ida heads our way and (b) what size and intensity we'll be dealing with. I'm getting a sense that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty as to both (a) and (b)--which is not uncommon but given the relatively small distance between where Ida is now and the Florida peninsula, it would be helpful to have an idea of what clues we should be looking for to help us understand predicted path and intensity. I'm very confused as to exactly how much shear the storm will be facing--is this because timing is going to be a major factor? Thanks in advance to our mets for guiding us through this one...

[Sanibel]

I'd wait for it to re-emerge and then watch the NHC forecast.



I think Ida has a nude SE quadrant because 96EPAC has starved it of intake on that side from the Pacific that a solo hurricane in this area would have drawn by this time. Plus that naked side is probably the cool air from the mountains being drawn around. This could play in disrupting the core and lowering the rebound.


No doubt forward speed is ahead of this morning's prediction.

[Ivanhater]

00Z gfdl bringing pretty strong winds in the Greater Pensacola area

[Ivanhater]

Canadian Louisiana again

[MWatkins]

Interesting the 1am position is east of the 10pm advisory mark. At 10pm it was at 13.8N 84.1W, now it's at 14.1N 84.0W.

Yet the motion is 330/4?

I suppose they are looking at the 12 hr motion, but I think at this point it's closer to 360 (or 0) at 4....

MW

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps approaches Louisiana then pushes sw into the Mexican/Texas border

[somethingfunny]

If the respectable models are doing things like bringing 960mb hurricanes into Mobile or turning westward towards Corpus IN NOVEMBER, then I REALLY need to see the LBAR's solution for all of this.

[somethingfunny]

I'm definitely not a professional and to be honest I'm not a very educated amateur either, but I can't really see any of these doomsday scenarios verifying.

My best guess is that Ida will be slow to re-organize once she leaves the coast, might make another run at Category One before being torn apart by mid-upper level shear, and her haircut will blow NE across Florida while the LLC retrogrades west in the GOM before being absorbed by an extratropical low which may end up being the 970-960 mb low that the models seem to be sniffing at.

I can see a large extratropical storm in the Gulf in November, and I can see a weakening sheared system racing northeast across Cuba/Florida/Bahamas at 45mph forward speed in November, but I can't see a major hurricane slowly meandering northwestward across the Gulf in November. It doesn't make any sense from a climatological view.

That doesn't mean that whatever extratropical/hybrid monstrosity that may form in the Gulf next week won't be a force to be reckoned with on its own.

[AdamFirst]

Looks like Ida's going to be back over water sooner than we think.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like Ida's going to be back over water sooner than we think.

At the rate it's going it looks like it might be back out over the water by Noon today...

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 060831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

...IDA NEARING THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...STILL
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
IDA REMAINS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER IDA
EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[SouthFLTropics]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 060838
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE COLDEST TOPS FOUND IN A
BAND EXTENDING FROM EASTERN HONDURAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY WHILE THE
CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF IDA
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
BEFORE IT EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. IF IDA SURVIVES UNTIL THEN IT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING IDA REACHING
HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
CONVERSELY...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING WHILE
THE LGEM SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER
TO THE LATTER SCENARIO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION ONCE IDA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO NUDGE TO THE RIGHT AND IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 350/05 AS IDA MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A GENERAL NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS BRINGING
IDA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
IDA INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND MANY OF THE MODELS RESPOND BY
TURNING IDA NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS IDA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL LIKELY BE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 14.4N 84.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 15.2N 84.2W 25 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/0600Z 16.4N 84.4W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 07/1800Z 17.4N 84.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.7N 85.4W 40 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.5N 86.7W 45 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 24.0N 87.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 27.0N 86.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Interesting the 1am position is east of the 10pm advisory mark. At 10pm it was at 13.8N 84.1W, now it's at 14.1N 84.0W.

Yet the motion is 330/4?

I suppose they are looking at the 12 hr motion, but I think at this point it's closer to 360 (or 0) at 4....

MW

Moving this morning at 350 degrees.Here is the latest.

[Thunder44]

Looks like Ida's going to be back over water sooner than we think.

At the rate it's going it looks like it might be back out over the water by Noon today...

SFT

I think it still has at least another 12 hours over land. But it looks like it will survive.

[cycloneye]