ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

#81 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:29 am

Latest

#82 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:40 am

ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Gustywind · #83 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 6:55 am

#84 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:06 am

Latest

#85 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:11 am

Shear

#86 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:21 am

My impression is that it looks less impressive than yesterday. Still a fair chance of developing, but no threat to any land areas (after producing rain in southern Cape Verde Islands today).

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:22 am

SSD Dvorak.

07/1145 UTC 11.9N 21.7W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic

#88 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:53 am

No big changes w/ the 12Z best track position:

AL, 96, 2009090712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 219W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

#89 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:54 am

senorpepr wrote:No big changes w/ the 12Z best track position:

AL, 96, 2009090712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 219W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

After further review, the 12Z updated it shift the previous path about a degree further south.

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 8:00 am

That is very interesting the further south positions of both SSD dvorak and Best track.

#91 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 8:09 am

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: That is very interesting the further south positions of both SSD dvorak and Best track.

It doesn't matter, chcloneye. This system is heading out to sea well east of the Caribbean no matter where it starts out.

On high-res visible, I would put the center at 13Z near 12.3N/22.8W. Just in the past hour, I'm seeing a little more banding with some convection now east of the center. Lat/Lon at bottom of image represent crosshairs position.

#92 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 8:21 am

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 061900.GIF

Great look at the circulation

#93 Postby **BigA** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 8:49 am

Euro keeps this thing around for a LONG time...the 240 hour forecast has 96L as a hurricane moving back westward at around 30 north. Now, I think we can all agree that a big, strong, long-lasting, ACE-boosting Fred fish would help this season's overall numbers.

#94 Postby **expat2carib** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:12 am

Fish Fred on it's way. Let me introduce Fred Sharkstone.

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:16 am

very nice LLC

Frank2 · #96 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:32 am

Uh-oh - at first I laughed at the picture of Fred Flintstone, but then remembered some on this very same web site posted similar pictures of his wife (Wilma), almost 4 years ago when that system was in it's early stages - and we know what happened with that hurricane (for me, it meant 10 days in a hotel)...

Granted, in 2005 we could spin up a hurricane with a $1.79 plunger (LOL), but you never know...

Frank

#97 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:50 am

Not that I'm convinced this will be Fred yet.

Sanibel · #98 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 9:57 am

Will it develop? Will it track west? Stay tuned tomorrow same time, same station, for the next episode of 'As The Storm Turns'...

#99 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:16 am

my first, only and last post about this system. NEXT!

Frank2 · #100 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:54 am

It's one of those years when activity is at a minimum (or the opposite of 2005), so it's a good thing...

I'm tempted to say the season's over, but it's too early for that...

Frank2

ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Re:

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Computer Models

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L

Who is online