ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

Derek,what do you think of the GFDL track?

12z GFDL

361
WHXX04 KWBC 271718
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 25.6 270./14.9
6 11.0 26.9 281./12.3
12 11.5 28.6 286./18.2
18 11.2 30.5 260./18.3
24 11.4 31.9 277./14.1
30 11.6 32.6 289./ 7.5
36 11.8 34.0 279./13.2
42 12.1 35.0 285./10.3
48 12.6 36.0 294./10.4
54 13.0 37.0 294./11.6
60 13.5 37.9 301./ 9.4
66 14.2 38.7 308./10.8
72 14.8 39.5 309./ 9.8
78 15.5 40.4 307./10.7
84 15.9 41.2 299./ 8.8
90 16.5 41.8 315./ 8.2
96 16.9 42.5 298./ 7.9
102 17.2 43.2 288./ 7.3
108 17.4 43.8 290./ 6.0
114 17.8 44.1 321./ 5.3
120 18.2 44.7 305./ 6.6
126 19.0 45.2 330./ 9.4

[Wx_Warrior]

Just one person's opinion anyway. You don't like the EURO, and I don't like CMC.

[Dean4Storms]

Exactly, the GFS had Bill headed to LA in its early run cycles of that Storm. Much could change here out beyond 120hrs. The CMC looks as plausible as any at this point!

[Derek Ortt]

Derek,what do you think of the GFDL track?

12z GFDL

361
WHXX04 KWBC 271718
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 25.6 270./14.9
6 11.0 26.9 281./12.3
12 11.5 28.6 286./18.2
18 11.2 30.5 260./18.3
24 11.4 31.9 277./14.1
30 11.6 32.6 289./ 7.5
36 11.8 34.0 279./13.2
42 12.1 35.0 285./10.3
48 12.6 36.0 294./10.4
54 13.0 37.0 294./11.6
60 13.5 37.9 301./ 9.4
66 14.2 38.7 308./10.8
72 14.8 39.5 309./ 9.8
78 15.5 40.4 307./10.7
84 15.9 41.2 299./ 8.8
90 16.5 41.8 315./ 8.2
96 16.9 42.5 298./ 7.9
102 17.2 43.2 288./ 7.3
108 17.4 43.8 290./ 6.0
114 17.8 44.1 321./ 5.3
120 18.2 44.7 305./ 6.6
126 19.0 45.2 330./ 9.4

a mile high pile of elephant dung (and I'd rather use the other word, lol)

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF is all fishland.Makes it a hurricane.Track is way more north than GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[artist]

what happened to looking at the models for the short term rather than the entire length? Isn't that where we can put some confidence rather than trying to peg the entire path this far out? Just wondering when that started happening.

[Sanibel]

I ignore GFDL until the system has a center. The higher the intensity the better GFDL gets.


I say we have time so we should look at Euro since it was accurate early with Bill.

[StormClouds63]

I agree with Wx_Warrior's opinion on this latest system (Erika?) ... can't rule anything out this early, but unlikely U.S. threat. Troughs are stronger, and the comparisons to 2006 do have some credibility.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

733
ABNT20 KNHC 271746
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tolakram]

Invest just before OJ.

I detect a pattern

[Dean4Storms]

This one will be interesting to watch and if the CONUS pattern changes it could possibly be a problem.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

looks like all that pacific energy from 2 1/2 weeks ago is starting to arrive

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE
NEAR 10.5N26.0W. THE CIMSS WAVETRACK GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MAXIMUM
AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 28W-32W. THIS CONVECTION IS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
AN ERN TROPICAL ATLC UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 19N29W.

[Frank2]

The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[Stormcenter]

If it were early August then maybe but now it's late August and we all what the pattern (E.Coast trough) has been most of this season so I say the GDFL is probable more plausable. But you can never rule anything out when it comes to the tropics. JMHO

I agree with Wx_Warrior's opinion on this latest system (Erika?) ... can't rule anything out this early, but unlikely U.S. threat. Troughs are stronger, and the comparisons to 2006 do have some credibility.

[Frank2]

The GFS does show a change in the pattern towards the end of the 10-day loop, so we'll see:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[Typhoon_Willie]

Interesting change indeed there Frank2 maybe this thing will make it all the way across with that high possibly (and I say possibly) building in.

[littlevince]

Improving

Visible Loop (1215z-1815z)

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS doesnt do too much with 94L,but I wanted to post this run to show the pattern change of a more prevalent ridge in the eastern U.S.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009082718, , BEST, 0, 107N, 270W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest