ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Frank2]

Here's a nice (JAVA) loop from CIMMS:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... rjava.html

[KWT]

Cool link Frank, you can see the convection is just starting to beef up a little bit compared to yesterday, though there still needs to be more near the center for it to have a good shot at being upgraded. Still only a matter of time I suppose.

[ROCK]

I agree KWT, does have that feel of a WPAC system....large cumbersome circulation that will take some time before it can consolidate around the center....might be a tomorrow before it reaches TD3 status...

[Gustywind]

Interresting paragrah by San Juan weather forecast...
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131418 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009


[size=150]PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON
TD#2 AND VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION AND IT WILL TAKE TIME BEFORE A CENTER CAN GET WELL
ESTABLISHED. UNTIL A CENTER GETS ESTABLISHED DONT EXPECT MODELS TO
GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DISTURBANCE. STILL AT
LEAST 6 DAYS OR SO BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AND TRACK FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT ARE IN THE ORDER OF
350 NAUTICAL MILES OR SO. THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AT ITS
WIDESPOINT IS ABOUT 700 MILES IN DIAMETER OR ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF
THE STATE OF FLORIDA.[/size]


&&


64/64

[KWT]

Yep that paragraph pretty much sums up what me and Rock was mentioned, that it may take some time for 90L to gather itself into a tighter circulation. Still suspect its only a matter of time before it will do. Of course exactly where it tightens that circulation will no doubt make an impact on the track as well.

[Gustywind]

Yep that paragraph pretty much sums up what me and Rock was mentioned, that it may take some time for 90L to gather itself into a tighter circulation. Still suspect its only a matter of time before it will do. Of course exactly where it tightens that circulation will no doubt make an impact on the track as well.

Absolutely KWT, that's why it's important to watch and monitor closely the situation especially for all the EC islands.

[Hurricaneman]

the 12z gfs is out to 60 hrs and already seems more reasonable

[cycloneye]

Agree,much more credible.Lets see what is the final result.

[KWT]

Yep its got just one system this run. The key period is coming up for the Caribbean...will be interesting to see whether the high weakens or not.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Climatalogicaly (spelling?) speaking - every single storm since 1900 forming in the area where both 90L and TD2 exist have recurved. Just a statement.

[KWT]

Yeah but then again 90L isn't a storm yet is it???

So you can't really make that statement until this upgraded to a TS and who knows when that will be.

I know for a fact Hugo was upgraded to a tropical depression in this area, as was others...

[HURAKAN]

90L is quite a large system. Typically they take days to develop.

[Brent]

Looks like a solid hurricane east of the islands:

[Derek Ortt]

GFS is more reasonable once again

[cycloneye]

KWT,looks like Caribbean bound.

[KWT]

Looks like it may well be heading for the NE Caribbean on this run, much closer to the 0z GFS it seems as was expected I think.

[KWT]

Agreed Derek, not all that shocking, a little slower this run but thats probably reasonable enough.

Also Hurakan, yep its a big system, as you say these do take a while to pull themself together, still its got a nice shape to it.

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1278

African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.

[Brent]

Major hurricane near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Yeah but then again 90L isn't a storm yet is it???

A ha, but here we start to play semantics. By storm, of course I meant - any tropical weather system TD or higher, including sub and extratropical systems, as that is what my search was based upon.

Yup, not an absolutely true statement, but the only thing I was trying to say is that anything this far out is likely to recurve. Granted 90L might make it to 60W before forming, who knows, thats a different ball of wax at that point.