EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[margiek]

this looks like a lead pipe cinch to become a cat 4

Don't jinx! I'm looking forward to predicting the first RI of the EPAC / ATL season, hopefully sometime within the next 12-24 hours.

(fixes this) --> appearance hasn't changed very much since 18Z, still lopsided convection, no solid primary band yet, bursting convection isn't sticking at the center, possibly some stable mid-level air being entrained from the NE.

*feels much better now*

[cyclonic chronic]

yea, kinda lopsided. carlos hasnt taken off yet like i thought. i bet the t.s. force winds are expanding and the center is reconsolidating. once the small inner core gets organized, look out. i look at this is a tropical storm "eyewall replacement cycle". i.e. its reorganizing to become a more efficent mover of tropical heat into the northern lattitudes. the tropics and mother nature are a beautiful entity!!

[RL3AO]

Just thought I would add the WPac too.

West Pacific 3
East Pacific 3
Atlantic 0

[cyclonic chronic]

last of vis. sat. coming in. lets see how 8 hrs makes the 1st vis images look 2morrow.

[Derek Ortt]

:uarrow:
i agree. there is nothing from keeping carlos from rapid intensification at any point in the next few days. i know its very early to tell but hawaii needs to keep an eye on this. do major hurricanes in the cent. pac. have a tendency to recurve or carry on in the easterlies? guess it depends on the synopitic set-up. whatever the set-up, im happy to have something to check out.

As do the Hurricane Hunters because once Carlos passes 140*W we are on our way out to Hickam to fly the storm. This system has the potential to come close to Hawaii as long as it stays together.

and I highly suspect that the Hurricane Hunters will be flying this one

[cycloneye]

WTPZ24 KNHC 110238
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 115.1W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 115.1W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 10.8N 116.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 11.4N 121.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 75SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.0N 128.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 13.0N 137.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

WTPZ34 KNHC 110240
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...CARLOS STRENGTHENS...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST OR ABOUT 925
MILES...1485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND
CARLOS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.5N 115.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

453
WTPZ44 KNHC 110242
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS EVENING. BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE MAY BE
DEVELOPING. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISH...BUT IT IS
A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUILD A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CARLOS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

CARLOS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS CARLOS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS A MORE MODEST RATE OF
STRENGTHENING. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD HALT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 10.5N 115.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 10.8N 116.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 11.1N 119.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 11.4N 121.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 11.6N 123.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 12.0N 128.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 13.0N 137.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the PPV AccuWx 500 mb GFDL 500 mb heights, it has a bit of a positively tilted trough over Hawai'i that could protect the state, but the trough is weakening and backing slightly Westward with time as the ridge over Carlos expands Westward..


This is potentially interesting.



Edit "Eastward" to "Westward".

[HURAKAN]

Like the NHC points out, it looks like a CDO is developing.

[Derek Ortt]

Looking at the PPV AccuWx 500 mb GFDL 500 mb heights, it has a bit of a positively tilted trough over Hawai'i that could protect the state, but the trough is weakening and backing slightly Westward with time as the ridge over Carlos expands Eastward..


This is potentially interesting.

never trust anything near the edge of a model domain

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the PPV AccuWx 500 mb GFDL 500 mb heights, it has a bit of a positively tilted trough over Hawai'i that could protect the state, but the trough is weakening and backing slightly Westward with time as the ridge over Carlos expands Eastward..


This is potentially interesting.

never trust anything near the edge of a model domain

Time and spatial, at that...

The 0Z GFS last night didn't really see Carlos, but showed a similar set-up, with the back edge of the ridge near Hawai'i.



ETA: I know they would stop for fuel and a crew rest period before flying a potential Hawai'i threat Carlos, but the transit flight from a SoCal air field to Hawai'i in a turboprop aircraft at 340 knots. A long trip.

[pojo]

ETA: I know they would stop for fuel and a crew rest period before flying a potential Hawai'i threat Carlos, but the transit flight from a SoCal air field to Hawai'i in a turboprop aircraft at 340 knots. A long trip.

Even longer when the planes are packed with crews, maintenance and support equipment..... very little room to move.

[cycloneye]

Will the shear hold in Hawaii or it will move out in time for Carlos to make an approach?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will the shear hold in Hawaii or it will move out in time for Carlos to make an approach?

Per AccuWx PPV GFDL, 60 to 75 knots of shear, beyond fatal, parked over Hawai'i between hours 102 and 126.

Carlos is under an upper anticyclone. Who knows if the strong 250 mb winds will also back away from Hawaii? Not I!

GFDL 250 mb winds, a 40 to 60 knot Summer version of the Pineapple Express, Hawai'i to California.

[Ed Mahmoud]

new GFS starting, Carlos not well initialized, but in half an hour or so, the 500 mb heights and 250 mb winds will be interesting to see as far as guesstimating possible shear and steering.

[Derek Ortt]

Carlos not expected to be near Hawaii for at least 8 days

[cycloneye]

CDO looking good.Still somewhat flat to the east.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Carlos not expected to be near Hawaii for at least 8 days

Almost 9 if one extrapolates the NHC forecast.


Anyway, GFS barely has a feature at 6 days, 250 mb 50 knot winds over Hawai'i, but much lighter near prog'd Carlos system, and 6 day 500 mb forecast.





ETA: Unrelated to Carlos, but do I see a 500 mb disturbance with a weak 850 mb reflection under a weak anticyclone near New Orleans? Hour 168 just in, Gulf isn't doing much. GFS does try to do another Cape Verde system...

[jinftl]

Water temps are marginal north of 15N....in the upper 70s....even the mid 70s at hawaii's latitude of 20N to its east (until about 140W).

Systems that come from the south, not the east, are the biggest threats for hawaii for this reason (i.e., iniki).




Almost every storm that comes into the islands from the east (i.e., at latitude of islands while to the east...not approaching from the south or southeast) has weakened to a tropical storms on its way due in large part to the marginal water temps...

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2009 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 10:32:00 N Lon : 115:16:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.6 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -64.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Like have already said, the farther south, the better for Carlos.