ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Aric Dunn]

It still does not have a well defined center its broad.. hence there is not upgrade .. if this was near land then probably would be ..

[KWT]

Looks like the GFDL is on exactly the same path as the GFS, heading towards DR/Haiti, the one area that really doesn't need it after last season!

I really do hope this one can miss the islands but the GFS has been so consistant and if anything is trending a little left over time.

[RL3AO]

2. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD ALSO FORM TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Well thats the first time they've mentioned that it could form on a certain day or time, so it seems like its getting close.

Im also hoping that the 18z GFS is way wrong, either north or south of that run is better but for the poor people of the Caribbean, they don't need that this year...not after the onslaught Cuba, DR and Haiti got.

[caribepr]

Waiting and watching...will be checking the local thread Luis - people around here are starting to check gennies and shutter up holiday homes they won't be using for a while.

[KWT]

Yep, the best hope for you guys is the 18z is right and the system stays just enough to the south but unless a ECM occurs it does seem that your region will at least get some effects...though to be fair its still a little early yet to know whats going to happen in that respect.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFDL

[Derek Ortt]

HWRF is now into the Carib. Guadeloupe in southern eyewall, Antigua in northern

[micktooth]

Hate to say it, its so far out, but the GFS has been in love with New Orleans for a while as well! Just my 2 cents, I used to live there until Katrina, now I'm safe in Colorado.

[HUC]

I heard Guadeloupe????HOPE NOT AGAIN...Since 1956 and Betsy,i saw a lot of storm;i'am afraid of them,and in the same time,fascinating...i think we are a lot like me in this board.SO WAIT AND....

[tolakram]

Convection appears to have begun wrapping around the broad center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

Recently moved RAMSDIS loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[jinftl]

Add in the 1000+ mile margin of error over 10 days out....and the love affair is a bit less exclusive to the big easy!

Hate to say it, its so far out, but the GFS has been in love with New Orleans for a while as well! Just my 2 cents, I used to live there until Katrina, now I'm safe in Colorado.

[Gustywind]

18z GFDL...ouch

where is 90L then?

Near the Lesser Antilles. That island just east of the eye is Guadeloupe.

Tkanks Brent that's EXACTLY GUADELOUPEin the EYEWALL

[Gustywind]

I heard Guadeloupe????HOPE NOT AGAIN...Since 1956 and Betsy,i saw a lot of storm;i'am afraid of them,and in the same time,fascinating...i think we are a lot like me in this board.SO WAIT AND....

Hi HUC today was Guadeloupe THREAT: GFS, GFDL , UKMET...no words for that, Cycloneye you're in the cone too

[Alacane2]

There wouldn't be much left of that system after traversing the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba.

Yep take that track and we have a lower end TS on our hands by the time it come sout with an utterly ruined inner core.
As Ike and Georges proved they tend not to be able to really power up as much as they did before even in decent conditions.

Still as others have said, thats still a long way out yet, tohugh the GFS has been very determined to smash this system into at least PR now.

But look at the track of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. The storm went over Hispaniola and Cuba, and was weak. Moved over the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually, it made landfall as a category 3, and almost a category 4 (I believe).

[jinftl]

A picture is worth a thousand words....but for those who focus on the exact location from a model run so far out.....remember these key words...MARGIN OF ERROR!!!! (not to mention margin of error for an intensity forecast)

[Scorpion]

There wouldn't be much left of that system after traversing the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba.

Yep take that track and we have a lower end TS on our hands by the time it come sout with an utterly ruined inner core.
As Ike and Georges proved they tend not to be able to really power up as much as they did before even in decent conditions.

Still as others have said, thats still a long way out yet, tohugh the GFS has been very determined to smash this system into at least PR now.

But look at the track of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. The storm went over Hispaniola and Cuba, and was weak. Moved over the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually, it made landfall as a category 3, and almost a category 4 (I believe).

If a major hits Hispaniola it will never regain its intensity again. The core just gets crushed. If its weaker then the damage to the core isn't as great.

[Derek Ortt]

Georges had 20KT of shear to contend with in the GOM

However, it was the only major hurricane to fully recover in terms of pressure from its trip across Hispaniola

[jinftl]

Boy oh boy....models show anywhere from a Cat 1 to a Cat 3 at the end of the period...

[wxman57]

I am now explicitly forecasting development within 12-24 hours. see analysis forum

Yeah, I see, it's starting to wrap up with convection developing near the center. Could be upgraded at any time.