ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[fox13weather]

In that case every wave that comes off Africa is an east coast/ Gulf of Mexico threat. There is enough model spread that calling "Ana" and the wave coming off Africa east coast/Gulf threats is nothing more than attention grabers.

Yeah, in my video I did mention that the threat could be anywhere from the Gulf Coast to out to sea off the East U.S. Coast. Way too early to tell. But it certainly is a "possible East Coast threat".

Gulf coast to out to sea?? Yup, that just about covers it ....amazing...

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather. WOW.

Where will all these tropical systems go? The two located in the eastern Atlantic have a date with the Eastern Seaboard later next week. The first (should be named Ana) could stay far enough out so as not to become a serious problem, but watch out for that trailing system. Latest computer projections show that disturbance becoming a strong hurricane and impacting the entire East Coast from Florida to Maine during the weekend of Aug. 22.

The tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean now is a bit of a sleeper. In other words it looks pretty harmless now, but what happens to it down the road. The next few days this disturbance will spread tropical downpours from east to west through the Caribbean. Sunday and Monday, it will enter the Gulf of Mexico where it could gain a little strength.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.


Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=2

[amawea]

I take it to mean that based on the projected tracks they will become an east coast and gulf coast threat. Not that they are now.

[HURAKAN]

Issued again.

994
WHXX01 KWBC 122007
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2007 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 0600 090813 1800 090814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.3W 14.7N 38.3W 15.0N 40.4W
BAMD 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.7W 14.9N 39.2W 15.6N 41.4W
BAMM 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.3W 14.9N 38.3W 15.3N 40.3W
LBAR 14.3N 34.4W 14.3N 36.8W 14.8N 39.6W 15.6N 42.5W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800 090817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 42.8W 16.9N 49.6W 20.0N 58.4W 23.7N 66.5W
BAMD 16.4N 43.8W 18.5N 48.9W 21.1N 54.6W 24.4N 59.3W
BAMM 15.8N 42.6W 17.3N 48.6W 19.6N 56.7W 23.2N 64.3W
LBAR 16.5N 45.4W 19.0N 51.1W 21.7N 56.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 57KTS 53KTS 49KTS
DSHP 52KTS 57KTS 53KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 34.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 32.0W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 29.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN

[Windsurfer_NYC]

aDecks file now showing TD:

TWO, AL, L, , , , , 02, 2009, TD, O, 2009080912, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, AL022009

[jlauderdal]

In that case every wave that comes off Africa is an east coast/ Gulf of Mexico threat. There is enough model spread that calling "Ana" and the wave coming off Africa east coast/Gulf threats is nothing more than attention grabers.

Yeah, in my video I did mention that the threat could be anywhere from the Gulf Coast to out to sea off the East U.S. Coast. Way too early to tell. But it certainly is a "possible East Coast threat".

Gulf coast to out to sea?? Yup, that just about covers it ....amazing...

sounds like a winning prediction to me

[HURAKAN]

Back to TD???

AL, 02, 2009081218, , BEST, 0, 143N, 344W, 30, 1006, TD

[Thunder44]

Back to TD???

AL, 02, 2009081218, , BEST, 0, 143N, 344W, 30, 1006, TD

Must be the way it looks now.

[OpieStorm]

Wow, Accuweather needs to be shut down.

[jlauderdal]

Accuweather. WOW.

Where will all these tropical systems go? The two located in the eastern Atlantic have a date with the Eastern Seaboard later next week. The first (should be named Ana) could stay far enough out so as not to become a serious problem, but watch out for that trailing system. Latest computer projections show that disturbance becoming a strong hurricane and impacting the entire East Coast from Florida to Maine during the weekend of Aug. 22.

The tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean now is a bit of a sleeper. In other words it looks pretty harmless now, but what happens to it down the road. The next few days this disturbance will spread tropical downpours from east to west through the Caribbean. Sunday and Monday, it will enter the Gulf of Mexico where it could gain a little strength.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.


Now this is really being over the top:

Latest computer projections show that disturbance becoming a strong hurricane and impacting the entire East Coast from Florida to Maine during the weekend of Aug. 22.

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=2

[Evil Jeremy]

Back to TD???

AL, 02, 2009081218, , BEST, 0, 143N, 344W, 30, 1006, TD

The suspense is killing me lol. We shall find out by the end of the hour.

[HURAKAN]

Again, another 18z is issued:

932
WHXX01 KWBC 122017
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2017 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 0600 090813 1800 090814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.3W 14.7N 38.3W 15.0N 40.4W
BAMD 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.7W 14.9N 39.2W 15.6N 41.4W
BAMM 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.3W 14.9N 38.3W 15.3N 40.3W
LBAR 14.3N 34.4W 14.3N 36.8W 14.8N 39.6W 15.6N 42.5W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800 090817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 42.8W 16.9N 49.6W 20.0N 58.4W 23.7N 66.5W
BAMD 16.4N 43.8W 18.5N 48.9W 21.1N 54.6W 24.4N 59.3W
BAMM 15.8N 42.6W 17.3N 48.6W 19.6N 56.7W 23.2N 64.3W
LBAR 16.5N 45.4W 19.0N 51.1W 21.7N 56.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 57KTS 53KTS 49KTS
DSHP 52KTS 57KTS 53KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 34.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 32.0W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 29.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNNN

[Evil Jeremy]

Any idea on why this is happening Hurakan?

[HURAKAN]

This still says 35 knots and was issued 13 minutes ago.

932
WHXX01 KWBC 122017
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2017 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1800 090813 0600 090813 1800 090814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.3W 14.7N 38.3W 15.0N 40.4W
BAMD 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.7W 14.9N 39.2W 15.6N 41.4W
BAMM 14.3N 34.4W 14.4N 36.3W 14.9N 38.3W 15.3N 40.3W
LBAR 14.3N 34.4W 14.3N 36.8W 14.8N 39.6W 15.6N 42.5W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1800 090815 1800 090816 1800 090817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 42.8W 16.9N 49.6W 20.0N 58.4W 23.7N 66.5W
BAMD 16.4N 43.8W 18.5N 48.9W 21.1N 54.6W 24.4N 59.3W
BAMM 15.8N 42.6W 17.3N 48.6W 19.6N 56.7W 23.2N 64.3W
LBAR 16.5N 45.4W 19.0N 51.1W 21.7N 56.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 57KTS 53KTS 49KTS
DSHP 52KTS 57KTS 53KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 34.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 32.0W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 29.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$
NNN

[JonathanBelles]

Why is it being issued multiple times?

[HURAKAN]

Why is it being issued multiple times?

Any idea on why this is happening Hurakan?

No idea.

[cycloneye]

That is why it is better to wait for the advisorys as things can change before they are issued.

[Thunder44]

The models never had "Ana" though. Neither did NRL. I think when they don't give a name to these things, it means that they maybe hedging.

[HURAKAN]

392
WTNT32 KNHC 122033
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 710
MILES...1140 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 35.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

LOL, we fail.