ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Aric Dunn]

well all done looking at it today.. be back for the 00z run .... but otherwise tomorrow... nothing happening tonight..

[BensonTCwatcher]

I never said this was similar to a westward moving cat 5

one needs to know a storm's entire life cycle to understand some of the references I make... because they often are not to the onces that the masses know but to a more obscure part of the storm history

I was re-enforcing your point.

[KWT]

I think tomorrow is going to be the day where this one does develop Aric, should be a very interesting day!

[Dean4Storms]

From the looks of it, if the CMC is to be correct the convection to the west near 68w/23n should be the area where a LLC forms!

[cycloneye]

The next mission departs at 12:00 Midnight EDT.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 26/0400Z
D. 23.0N 71.0W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Stephanie]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The 12z CMC does the same thing. I guess this will be a good test of the "new and improved" Canadian. If the new CMC isn't spinning up any more phantomcanes then within a week we should be seeing a real East Coast threat from Danny, a strengthening Erika crossing the MDR, and Fred forming out by the Cape Verdes. I don't expect perfection from the CMC...it's still just a computer model, and at 144 hours...but if we get 2/3 of the storms it's forecasting, the new CMC will have my respect. The CMC is also developing Jimena in about 3 days and Kevin in the EPAC from the current 93L soon afterwards. So there's five points upon which the improvements can be graded.

And yes, the upper level pattern does make potential Erika look like a real threat next week.

I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL AND THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.... I AM JUST AN AMATEUR... AND AN AMATEURISH AMATEUR AT THAT!

Crap! Danny looks like he rides right up the East Coast as soon as he hits the Outer Banks! He's also not losing his steam either...

[Aric Dunn]

latest .. HWRF.. shifts west alot..

similar to cmc yesterday..


very interesting...... and says the ridge maybe stronger..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[kat61]

Hooray Slack-U-Weather

Image shows a TS Parallel to Cape Canaveral going straight for Cape Cod....

PS HURAKAN.. not kocking you... I know youre just posting the info

Isn't shuttle going up tonight at 1am? didn't lanch last night due to weather

[Derek Ortt]

likely won't go. They do not usually do low level invests at night

[Blown Away]

92L not looking as a good as it did earlier. The NHC still has 92L moving WNW at 20mph, IMO it does not look like the blob of convection has been moving at that fast pace. It's clear the remanent ULL and/or vorticy has been moving at a fast clip, mostly yo the west.

[JonathanBelles]

OT but to answer the question. The shuttle launch tonight was scrubbed due to valve failure.

[massweathernet]

Hooray Slack-U-Weather

Image shows a TS Parallel to Cape Canaveral going straight for Cape Cod....

PS HURAKAN.. not kocking you... I know youre just posting the info

Isn't shuttle going up tonight at 1am? didn't lanch last night due to weather

Launch scrubbed due to problem with a fill-and-drain valve in the bottom part of the Shuttle, the aft
part of the Shuttle, related to the liquid hydrogen.

[KWT]

What is worth noting Dean is the GFS seem to be shifting westwards with its forecast, getting closer to some sort of agreement now on possibly a Carolinas risk in about 3-4 days time.

Much still depends on exactly where any center of circulation forms however.

[OuterBanker]

Oh well back from dinner to check on recon. From what I gather they found no center but they did find ts strength winds. Also appears that the wrf has now shfted west with the center around the Pamlico sound (that's the body of water on the west side of the OBX). I was kinda hoping that the Euro, CMC, NGP would shift east. The UKMET is starting to look like the CMC. Luckily they still are the only ones with a strong system. My biggest fear though is that this thing stays weak then cranks before landfall suprising all and not allowing time to evac.

A hundred thousand tourist heading to the OBX on a Saturday with a landfalling hurricane could lead to disaster.

[KWT]

Yep that pretty much sums up the recon report, found some pretty impressive winds at flight level but just couldn't close off a center. I think in that respect tomorrow will be the big day and will see the system develop a closed circulation, but we shall see!

[Recurve]

I never said this was similar to a westward moving cat 5

one needs to know a storm's entire life cycle to understand some of the references I make... because they often are not to the onces that the masses know but to a more obscure part of the storm history

I think I got what Derek meant. I was there when it was looking a lot different than a Cat 5. On thurs or Fri Norcross had a headline like "watching Andrew?" because no one was sure it would even survive.
Then Sat night came and we had a major storm and no relief in the high.

[kat61]

OT but to answer the question. The shuttle launch tonight was scrubbed due to valve failure.

Thanks! just saw tht

[storms NC]

[MGC]

ULL....as long as that ULL is around 92L will have a hard time closing off a circulation center unless it form directly under the ULL which does not appear to be happening. I don't see this getting its act together in any hurry. If it does it will move up the EC.....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe that is the dieing ULL that has been providing shear to this system, and also helped kick-start its convection.