WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[drdavisjr]

Looks similar w/ JTWC now.........At least now we have a clearer picture

OK...maybe a little better for Metro Manila.

[drdavisjr]

Latest computer models...JTWC in black.

[oaba09]

Looks similar w/ JTWC now.........At least now we have a clearer picture

OK...maybe a little better for Metro Manila.

Yeah.........But it's still quite near.......

[jinftl]

This 'curved' map is tricky....due west takes on a linear wnw motion but follow the 20N latitude line as it 'curves' to the wnw, and you see the storm is forecast to head due west (maybe a slight w-sw bend) down the pike. Not a fan of maps like this for tracking storms

[drdavisjr]

You know I like using wundermap. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... ix=0&dir=0

Wundermap follows JTWC and you can clearly see the storm is south of next forecast point.

[metenthusiast]

Looks similar w/ JTWC now.........At least now we have a clearer picture

OK...maybe a little better for Metro Manila.

Seems jtwc and jma to be in agreement now, and models are reaching a general consensus of a Central Luzon hit. I just hope the authorities here in the Philippines take notice of this and start initiating precautionary measures. How we are on rain with this typhoon? Would be bring much downpour?

[drdavisjr]

Looks similar w/ JTWC now.........At least now we have a clearer picture

OK...maybe a little better for Metro Manila.

Seems jtwc and jma to be in agreement now, and models are reaching a general consensus of a Central Luzon hit. I just hope the authorities here in the Philippines take notice of this and start initiating precautionary measures. How we are on rain with this typhoon? Would be bring much downpour?

[oaba09]

You know I like using wundermap. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... ix=0&dir=0

Wundermap follows JTWC and you can clearly see the storm is south of next forecast point.

I'm using that too right now....it's easier to track the movement now because the eye is becoming "visible"

[metenthusiast]

Looks not much yet. But still 3 days out and I think we should wait for the Friday images, where it's at its strongest phase.

[ozonepete]

You know I like using wundermap. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... ix=0&dir=0

Wundermap follows JTWC and you can clearly see the storm is south of next forecast point.

Just remember that a difference of 160 km or 100 miles between the models is pretty insignificant this far out from landfall. Each day now the tracks and their differences become more important and more interesting, and should get closer and closer. But still, remember that the average error on the forecast position from three days out is 480 km or 300 miles. At some point during tomorrow we can all figure out more accurately where it's going. Right now the JMA and JTWC both look reasonable to me on track.

[drdavisjr]

While we really must pray for the best, let's not get too confident of a north Luzon hit. We must really expect the worst case scenario until we know for sure otherwise.

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=75kts

The track forecast came out first than the text.No change to the track from prior warnings.

[dhoeze]

Agree...

Floods here in Pasig(City in Metro Manila) just subsided 2 days ago.

This is my first post, I wish i could have posted a happier one but with the forecast
hitting us again... just cant help it.

Anyways, thank you so much to all those people sharing their
vast knowledge on this. I am learning so much.
I have been monitoring these recent storms hitting Philippines
lately to ensure our staffs here in our company are informed.
Good thing bumped into this forum. more power guys.

Guys,

Any information on the forecasted rainfall?

Thanks so much again guys for the information

[Crostorm]

[Derek Ortt]

winds look to be about 75KT based upon satellite imagery

[oaba09]

[metenthusiast]

0300z JTWC Warning=75kts

The track forecast came out first than the text.No change to the track from prior warnings.

Yup. I think the only change is with the forecast dates. The typhoon position on the 31st is now further to the east than it was at warning #8. Does this mean the storm is decelerating?

[ozonepete]

winds look to be about 75KT based upon satellite imagery

That's the JTWC assessment at 2800Z. Totally reasonable.

[ozonepete]

0300z JTWC Warning=75kts

The track forecast came out first than the text.No change to the track from prior warnings.

Yup. I think the only change is with the forecast dates. The typhoon position on the 31st is now further to the east than it was at warning #8. Does this mean the storm is decelerating?

There will be adjustments based on the changing forward speeds it exhibits, so it's a good idea to watch the landfall time, which will gradually become more stable over the next day or two.

[oaba09]

0300z JTWC Warning=75kts

The track forecast came out first than the text.No change to the track from prior warnings.

Yup. I think the only change is with the forecast dates. The typhoon position on the 31st is now further to the east than it was at warning #8. Does this mean the storm is decelerating?

There will be adjustments based on the changing forward speeds it exhibits, so it's a good idea to watch the landfall time, which will gradually become more stable over the next day or two.

I think the path is pretty much set............What we need to observe right now is the strength and the speed of this typhoon........