ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[wxman57]

Noticed 96L is moving 20mph compared to previous east Atlantic waves which moved at the 10-15mph. Is the Bermuda/Azores High a little stronger?

Only near Africa. There's a deep trof in its path. This one will be making a right turn by 40W.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[Tropics Guy]

Already looks close to being a TD, based on satellite presentation., IMO should be a code red.

TG

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTNT21 KNGU 070201
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070200Z SEP 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 19.6W TO 13.0N 26.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 070200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 19.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080200Z.//



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

[abajan]

What's the matter with the latest TWD? NHC has not issued yet...or it's me? Where are they? in holidays?

Labor day weekend, No TC allowed.

How ironic that would be because (statistically speaking) the Labor Day weekend is the most likely of weekends to have a TC somewhere in the Atlantic.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFS at 120h: a bit to the west of the 12Z run (and more pronounced in developing the next wave):



Complete loop

[clfenwi]

"Code Red"

ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TWD remarks

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT WITH A
1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CIMSS
WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NW OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 20W-25W. AN E-W BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...MORE LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ...IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 20W-27W. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[clfenwi]

GFDL and HWRF runs are out. The big thing about the jog to the southwest in the early part of the forecast period is that it keeps the system in the warmest of the SSTs in the area.

[clfenwi]

UKMET maintains a t+12 formation time, takes the storm nearly three degrees further west compared to the 12Z run :

WTNT80 EGRR 070600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.8N 22.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2009 11.8N 22.5W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2009 11.7N 25.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2009 12.0N 27.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2009 13.0N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2009 14.0N 32.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2009 15.2N 33.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2009 16.4N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2009 18.1N 34.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2009 18.9N 34.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2009 19.3N 34.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2009 19.2N 34.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2009 19.2N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

[HurricaneJoe22]

Maybe a TD at 11 a.m. after they look at morning visibles.

[clfenwi]

06Z suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 070638
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0638 UTC MON SEP 7 2009
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20090907 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        090907  0600   090907  1800   090908  0600   090908  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  21.4W   13.3N  24.3W   13.6N  27.5W   14.0N  31.0W
BAMD    12.9N  21.4W   13.1N  24.2W   13.5N  26.8W   14.2N  29.3W
BAMM    12.9N  21.4W   13.1N  24.2W   13.5N  26.8W   14.1N  29.4W
LBAR    12.9N  21.4W   13.1N  24.5W   13.5N  27.7W   14.2N  30.6W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          51KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        090909  0600   090910  0600   090911  0600   090912  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.1N  34.3W   14.5N  39.1W   13.4N  39.6W   12.2N  36.2W
BAMD    15.0N  31.5W   17.7N  35.2W   20.7N  36.5W   23.1N  36.6W
BAMM    14.7N  32.0W   16.6N  36.1W   18.1N  37.6W   19.1N  37.7W
LBAR    14.9N  33.2W   17.6N  37.0W   17.8N  36.4W   25.0N  37.9W
SHIP        61KTS          73KTS          71KTS          63KTS
DSHP        61KTS          73KTS          71KTS          63KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.9N LONCUR =  21.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  17.8W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  12.5N LONM24 =  14.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Rainband]

Noticed 96L is moving 20mph compared to previous east Atlantic waves which moved at the 10-15mph. Is the Bermuda/Azores High a little stronger?

Only near Africa. There's a deep trof in its path. This one will be making a right turn by 40W.

It's the tropics and things change not saying it will happen but you can't be certain. Look at jeanne you go with the data that's there at the time. You of all people should know Mother nature can throw a curve ball and stump all of the mets in the world

[knotimpaired]

highly doubt this will be a fish

remember, fish means hitting no land. it has land right on its track!

Good call, the southern Cape Verde islands could very well get windy, rainy conditions. It would be interesting to be able to get observations from there.

Good morning everyone. Here's your weather cam from the Cape Verde Islands.

http://www.caboverde24.com/webcam/

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From SSD
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/0600 UTC 13.0N 21.3W T1.0/1.0 96L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 7, 2009 4:49 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
ATLANTIC

A strong tropical wave with an area of concentrated thunderstorms is located about 150 miles southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Upper level winds are favorable for this system to become a tropical depression in the next couple of days.
The remainder of the Atlantic is quiet.

[DanKellFla]

This is looking better than Erika did for most of its life.

[Gustywind]

Looking very good...




Shear tendency seems to indicate that winds are relaxing in vicinity of 96L...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT WITH A
1007 MB LOW EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. A DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CIMSS
WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE LOW CENTER
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 22W-26W. AN E-W BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...MORE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ...IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 19W-29W. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[HURAKAN]

WTNT21 KNGU 070201
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070200Z SEP 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 19.6W TO 13.0N 26.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 070200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 19.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080200Z.//